[Vision2020] ObamaCare Premiums will increase 5-6% for 2015

Gary Crabtree moscowlocksmith at gmail.com
Thu Feb 5 18:00:33 PST 2015

Premiums for 2014 to 2015 ARE apples to apples I suppose but they have
nothing to due with the original argument​ I made. I said that millions
were forced off the health care plan that they were promised they could
keep and into plans that cost them more as the CNBC article I cited backed
up and you previously agreed was the case albeit grudgingly. That said,
let's put it aside and explain to me how the claim of holding premium
increases to 6% can be meaningful in any way when the majority of the 13
million new enrollee's are receiving a subsidy for their policy  that is
funded by cuts to medicare, numerous tax increases, and newly enacted fees?
With enough OPM thrown at the program there's no reason the number couldn't
be anything the administration wants it to be.


On Thu, Feb 5, 2015 at 3:34 PM, Nicholas Gier <ngier006 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi Gary,
> Premiums for 2014 and for 2015 are apples vs. apples, and the increase in
> premiums is going down, just as they did in Mass.  Before ACA they were not
> headed down.  Please know that I did not support the unnecessarily complex
> ACA (which still supports $10 million plus sarlaried insurance executives
> flying around in private jets), but instead supported Medicare for All.
> And if the rest of the civilized world is our guide, then premiums would
> really be going down.
> nfg
> On Thu, Feb 5, 2015 at 1:35 PM, Gier, Nicholas (ngier at uidaho.edu) <
> ngier at uidaho.edu> wrote:
>>  Hi Gary,
>>  The figures I gave were projections for 2015.  You are citing 2014
>> figures.  The rate of increase, just as in Mass., are going down steadily.
>> The people who lost their plans last year will most likely see the same
>> 5-6% over premiums that were going up and up before the ACA.
>>  nfg
>>  ------------------------------
>> *From:* vision2020-bounces at moscow.com <vision2020-bounces at moscow.com> on
>> behalf of Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com>
>> *Sent:* Thursday, February 5, 2015 11:16 AM
>> *To:* Nicholas Gier
>> *Cc:* vision2020
>> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] ObamaCare Premiums will increase 5-6% for
>> 2015
>>   "With regard to Gary Crabtree's claim that the millions who lost their
>> health plans received new plans with higher premiums, all that I could find
>> is what is appended below."​
>>  "Without exact data, I can speculate with some confidence that those
>> who lost their plans are in better and more comprehensive plans at perhaps
>> slightly higher premiums.
>>  I suppose that I should accept any admission that I was right as a
>> miracle and call it good but, leaving well enough alone is just not in my
>> nature. You admit the higher part of my contention, let's look at the
>> "slightly."
>>  Since CNBC is a source you seem to like, this from their web site:
>>  "In analysis published this week
>> <http://www.healthpocket.com/healthcare-research/infostat/obamacare-2014-premiums-higher-than-pre-reform-market?_ga_variation=1&utm_expid=60784014-14.Zlx56I0SQAqKSdO9tJpZVg.1&utm_referrer=http://www.healthpocket.com/#.VFPMO_nF-bM>,
>> the website HealthPocket.com <http://www.healthpocket.com/> compared the
>> average premiums people paid in 2013, before Obamacare plans went on
>> sale, to 2014 plan prices. HealthPocket looked at premiums paid by
>> non-smoking men and women, ages 23, 30 and 63, in all 50 states and
>> Washington, D.C.
>> "HealthPocket found that the average health insurance premium increased
>> by double digits for each group examined, though some groups saw a much
>> steeper increase than others," the report said.
>>  For 23-year-old non-smoking men, the average premium for all plans
>> jumped 78 percent in 2014, the report said. Women of the same age saw a
>> 45-percent hike.
>> For 30-year-olds, the increases were 73 percent for men and 35 percent
>> for women. Only the 63-year-old age group saw bigger price hikes for women,
>> with females paying 37.5 percent more for insurance on average in 2014, and
>> men paying an average of nearly 23 percent more."
>>  Perhaps your definition of slight and mine are slightly different?
>>  g
>> On Wed, Feb 4, 2015 at 6:17 PM, Nicholas Gier <ngier006 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>  Visionaries:
>>> With regard to Gary Crabtree's claim that the millions who lost their
>>> health plans received new plans with higher premiums, all that I could find
>>> is what is appended below.  As was the case in RomneyCare, Massachusetts
>>> led the nation in declining health care premiums, and now ObamaCare is
>>> effecting that trend nation-wide. If we had done Medicare for All, premiums
>>> would be even lower. For years health care premiums were increasing at
>>> double-digit rates and administrative costs for pre-ACA plans were in the
>>> 20-30 percent range with Medicare admini. costs below 10 percent.
>>> Without exact data, I can speculate with some confidence that those who
>>> lost their plans are in better and more comprehensive plans at perhaps
>>> slightly higher premiums.
>>> http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obamacare-2015-low-premium-increases-110000415.html
>>> On average, consumers can expect modest increases of about 5.6 percent
>>> from last year according to PriceWaterhouseCooper
>>> <http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/aca-state-exchanges.jhtml>,
>>> which analyzed data from 43 states and Washington D.C.
>>> To be sure, health premiums increase each year and have long before
>>> Obamacare. Now, health experts say that because of several provisions in
>>> the law, premium price growth is actually slowing.
>>> The average proposed premium was about $381. Of course, the price of
>>> premiums varies widely from region to region. In Colorado, for example,
>>> rates range from a 22 percent decrease to a 35 percent increase, according
>>> to the study.
>>> A separate analysis by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
>>> <http://www.rwjf.org/content/dam/farm/reports/issue_briefs/2014/rwjf416395> found
>>> that premiums would increase an average of less than 5 percent from last
>>> year.
>>> Sticker shock? Not. Obamacare's proposed 2015 rates
>>> Dan Mangan <http://www.cnbc.com/id/100731877>
>>> Friday, 3 Oct 2014 | 12:53 PM ETCNBC.com
>>> Dire warnings by Obamacare opponents of dramatically higher insurance
>>> premium prices in 2015 are not being borne out nationally, according to new
>>> data
>>> <http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/aca-state-exchanges.jhtml> showing
>>> proposed prices are rising moderately, on average, nationally.
>>> While the single-digit average price increases, coupled with a rise in
>>> the number of insurers selling Obamacare plans for next year, suggest
>>> enrollment could remain fairly strong in the new form of insurance in the
>>> short term, questions remain about relative price stability over the long
>>> term.
>>> Six states and the District of Columbia already issued approved rates
>>> for individual insurance plans in 2015, and the average premium is rising
>>> just 2.5 percent, PricewaterhouseCoopers found in its updated report
>>> <http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/aca-state-exchanges.jhtml>.
>>> These plans go on sale Nov. 15.
>>> The average premium in those states—across different price tiers and
>>> ages—would be $327 per month. But that average doesn't reflect the effect
>>> of federal subsidies that about 85 percent of Obamacare enrollees receive.
>>> Those subsidies, which are based on income, can substantially cut actual
>>> payments.
>>> And in the 38 states and D.C. that have finalized rates or released
>>> proposed rates for such plans, the average premium would rise 6 percent,
>>> PwC said. The average premium would be $382 per month, before subsidies are
>>> factored in.
>>> Just one state so far, Louisiana, has reported that rates are proposed
>>> to rise more than 10 percent. Cajun State residents are faced with an
>>> average proposed premium hike of 15.3 percent for individual plans. At the
>>> other end of the spectrum are Oregon's finalized rates, which are 2.5
>>> percent lower than that state's 2014 premiums.
>>> "I think it's probably coming as a relief to many that we're not seeing
>>> double-digit rate increases," said Ceci Connolly, managing director of
>>> PwC's Health Research Institute. "I think that the worries about
>>> excessively high costs and prices have not materialized."
>>> Connolly said the 6 percent average tracks "very closely what the
>>> average [premium increase] is in in the employer-based market," which is
>>> where most Americans get health coverage. And that average is 2.2
>>> percentage points lower than what PwC found when it first began tracking
>>> proposed rate hike disclosures in states in mid-summer, she said.
>>> =======================================================
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