[Vision2020] Interesting arctic temperature anomaly

[Paul Rumelhart]

I've been following the conditions at the arctic ice cap, as I have for 
a number of years.  This year, I've found something strange. Every year, 
I follow the plots of mean temperature above 80 degrees N.  I get these 
graphs from the Watt's Up With That? sea ice page 
(http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/), but if you 
have religious reasons why you won't go there, you can find the same 
information here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

If you look at the current graph of arctic mean temperature above the 
80th parallel for 2013 (which I've attached to this email) and compare 
it to the one from last year (which I've also attached), you'll see that 
the mean temperature is following the blue line (the 0 degrees C line), 
instead of the green one (which is from the ERA40 temperature model), 
which is what past years have followed.  I've looked at all the graphs 
linked on the ocean.dmi.dk site, and only one shows this kind of 
behavior, going back to 1958.  That one is 2009, which I've also attached.

I'm just curious what is going on here.  At first I thought it was 
following the 0C line because fresh water ice was melting before sea 
water ice, because I thought that sea water melted at a slightly higher 
temperature.  It actually melts at a lower temperature (~ -1.9C).  The 
maximum temperature for that area at this time of year is dominated by 
the ice melt, meaning that almost all of the sun's energy is going into 
the phase change from solid to liquid water instead of heating the 
atmosphere.  So I'm at a loss to explain why the mean temperature in 
that area is lower than expected.

Any ideas?

The minimum sea ice extent and area for 2009 was the highest in the last 
few years, which makes me wonder if 2013 will also be a "recovery" 
year.  I've attached today's sea ice extent and area graphs, which show 
2013 doing much better than 2012 and more-or-less following the 2009 
levels.  That's not to say that we couldn't have another record loss 
year, it will depend on what the jet stream does.  If we get another 
wonky oscillating jet stream like we did in recent years, all bets are off.

And yes, I'm not a climate scientist.  Deal with it.  I still feel, for 
some odd reason, that I have the right to ask questions.

Paul
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