[Vision2020] July 2013, US Dept. of Energy: "US Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather"

[Ted Moffett]

Full report at first website... New York Times story on this report pasted
in below:

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/07/f2/20130710-Energy-Sector-Vulnerabilities-Report.pdf
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http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/11/us/climate-change-will-cause-more-energy-breakdowns-us-warns.html?_r=0
Climate Change Will Cause More Energy Breakdowns, U.S. Warns By JOHN M.
BRODER<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/john_m_broder/index.html>
Published:
July 11, 2013 WASHINGTON — The nation’s entire energy system is vulnerable
to increasingly severe and costly weather events driven by climate change,
according to a report from the Department of
Energy<http://energy.gov/downloads/us-energy-sector-vulnerabilities-climate-change-and-extreme-weather>to
be published on Thursday.

The blackouts and other energy
disruptions<http://www.eia.gov/special/disruptions/>of Hurricane Sandy
were just a foretaste, the report says. Every corner of
the country’s energy infrastructure — oil wells, hydroelectric dams,
nuclear power plants — will be stressed in coming years by more intense
storms, rising seas, higher temperatures and more frequent droughts.

The effects are already being felt, the report says. Power plants are
shutting down or reducing output because of a shortage of cooling water.
Barges carrying coal and oil are being delayed by low water levels in major
waterways. Floods and storm surges are inundating ports, refineries,
pipelines and rail yards. Powerful windstorms and raging wildfires are
felling transformers and transmission lines.

“We don’t have a robust energy system, and the costs are significant,”
said Jonathan
Pershing<http://energy.gov/pi/office-policy-and-international-affairs/contributors/jonathan-pershing>,
the deputy assistant secretary of energy for climate change policy and
technology, who oversaw production of the report. “The cost today is
measured in the billions. Over the coming decades, it will be in the
trillions. You can’t just put your head in the sand anymore.”

The study notes that 2012 was the hottest year on
record<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/science/earth/2012-was-hottest-year-ever-in-us.html?_r=0>in
the contiguous United States, and last
July was the hottest
month<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/science/earth/july-was-hottest-month-ever-recorded-in-us.html>in
the United States since record keeping began in 1895.

The high temperatures were accompanied by record-setting drought, which
parched much of the Southwest and greatly reduced water available for
cooling fossil fuel plants and producing hydroelectric power. A study found
that roughly 60 percent of operating coal plants are in areas with
potential water shortages driven by climate change.

Rising heat in the West will drive a steep increase in demand for air
conditioning, which has already forced blackouts and brownouts in some
places. The Energy Department’s Argonne National Laboratory found that air
conditioning demand in the West will require 34 gigawatts of new
electricity generating capacity by 2050, equivalent to the construction of
100 power plants. The cost to consumers will exceed $40 billion, the lab
said.

Mr. Pershing, who joined the Department of Energy this year after serving
for several years as the State Department’s deputy special envoy for
climate change, said much of the climate disruption was already baked into
the system from 150 years of rising levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. He said that the nation must continue efforts to reduce
climate-altering emissions, but that the impact of those efforts would not
be felt for years. In the meantime, Mr. Pershing said, cities, states and
the federal government must take steps to adapt and improve their
resiliency in the face of more wicked weather.

President Obama referred to these vulnerabilities in his speech on climate
change<http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/25/remarks-president-climate-change>at
Georgetown University on June 25. He said Hurricane Sandy, which
devastated the Northeast in October, had provided a wake-up call, if one
was needed after the run of climate-related disasters in recent years.

“New York City is fortifying its 520 miles of coastline as an insurance
policy against more frequent and costly storms,” Mr. Obama said. “And what
we’ve learned from Hurricane Sandy and other disasters is that we’ve got to
build smarter, more resilient infrastructure that can protect our homes and
businesses, and withstand more powerful storms. That means stronger sea
walls, natural barriers, hardened power grids, hardened water systems,
hardened fuel supplies.”

After Sandy, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York commissioned a study of
how to protect the city against storms. The report called for nearly $20
billion in investments to enhance resilience, roughly equivalent to the
costs of responding to the hurricane. The study said that unless the city
took precautions, the next storm of similar magnitude could cost the city
$90 billion.

The new Department of Energy report does not provide any firm estimates of
expected costs and provides no specific recommendations for immediate
action, much of which would be the responsibility of the companies that
produce and transport all forms of energy.

But the authors do suggest a series of steps to reduce vulnerability. Power
plants and oil drillers should use less water and recycle what they use.
Electricity providers should harden their transmission grids and build
emergency backup systems. Operators of hydroelectric dams should improve
turbine efficiency. And residential and commercial energy users should find
ways to reduce demand.
   A version of this article appeared in print on July 11, 2013, on
page A12of the New
York edition with the headline: U.S. Warns That Climate Change Will Cause
More Energy Breakdowns.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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