[Vision2020] Atlantic basin hurricane frequency increasing, but not strength

[Paul Rumelhart]

While I understand that Hurricane Sandy is a gift from the gods for climate alarmists, I'd like to refer you all to a Clemson University study.  I don't have a link to the actual study, but do have a link to a press release from Clemson University about it: http://www.clemson.edu/media-relations/article.php?article_id=2262.

Basically, it appears that the annual number of hurricanes and tropical storms (at least in the Atlantic basin) has been increasing in the last few years, but that the strength of the hurricanes and their chance of US landfall has not.  The number of hurricanes could be increasing because we are steadily getting better at tracking storms, but that's just conjecture.

Here is the press release:


CLEMSON — In a new study, Clemson University researchers have 
concluded that the number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the 
Atlantic Basin is increasing, but there is no evidence that their 
individual strengths are any greater than storms of the past or that the chances of a U.S. strike are up.

Robert Lund, professor of 
mathematical sciences at Clemson, along with colleagues Michael Robbins 
and Colin Gallagher of Clemson and QiQi Lu of Mississippi State 
University, studied changes in the tropical cycle record in the North 
Atlantic between 1851 and 2008.

“This is a hot button in the 
argument for global warming,” said Lund. “Climatologists reporting to 
the U.S. Senate as recently as this summer testified to the exact 
opposite of what we find. Many researchers have maintained that warming 
waters of the Atlantic are increasing the strengths of these storms. We 
do not see evidence for this at all, however we do find that the number 
of storms has recently increased.”

The study represents one of 
the first rigorous statistical assessments of the issue with uncertainty
 margins calculated in. For example, Lund says “there is less than a one
 in 100,000 chance of seeing this many storms occur since 1965 if in 
truth changes are not taking place.”

He adds, “Hopefully such a 
rigorous assessment will clear up the controversy and the misinformation
 about what is truly happening with these storms.”
The study, submitted to the Journal of the American Statistical 
Association, also found changes in storm pattern records starting around 1935. This was expected at the onset of aircraft reconnaissance, which 
allowed record-keepers to identify and document storms occurring in the 
open ocean.

While the study did conclude that more storms are 
being documented, researchers found no evidence of recent increases in 
U.S. landfall strike probability of the strongest of hurricanes. Lund 
notes that “because these types of storms are so uncommon, it will take 
many more years of data to reliably assess this issue."The research was funded by a $100,000 National Science Foundation grant.   



Paul
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