[Vision2020] 10-10-2012: Munich Re Insurance: "North America is the continent with the largest increases in disasters, " Munich Re's Peter Hoppe.

[Ted Moffett]

Poetic justice, given that the US has dumped into the atmosphere more total
historical climate change inducing CO2, by a wide margin, than any other
nation.

http://pdf.wri.org/navigating_numbers.pdf

Page 32 of document above: US total from 1850-2002, 29.3 percent of world
total, number one.  Even assuming the EU-25's total, which includes many
nations, the US alone still is number one.  China ranks 4th with 7.6
percent.

We often hear in recent years that China is now the big climate change bad
boy, given China's annual emissions that now probably exceed US annual
emissions.  But China remains far behind the US in total historical
emissions.  Given current trends, it will take many years for China to
exceed the US total historical emissions, and if this occurs, it means
humanity has failed to address climate change.

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http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/10/weather-disasters-climate-change-munich-re-report/1622845/
Report: Climate change behind rise in weather disasters

5:07PM EST October 10. 2012 - The number of natural disasters per year has
been rising dramatically on all continents since 1980, but the trend is
steepest for North America where countries have been battered by
hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, searing heat and drought, a new report says.

The study being released today by Munich Re, the world's largest
reinsurance firm, sees climate change driving the increase and predicts
those influences will continue in years ahead, though a number of experts
question that conclusion.

Whatever the causes, the report shows that if you thought the weather has
been getting worse, you're right.

The report finds that weather disasters in North America are among the
worst and most volatile in the world: "North America is the continent with
the largest increases in disasters," says Munich Re's Peter Hoppe.

The report focuses on weather disasters since 1980 in the USA, Canada,
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Hoppe says this report represents the first finding of a climate change
"footprint" in the data from natural catastrophes.

Some of the report's findings:

-- The intensities of certain weather events in North America are among the
highest in the world, and the risks associated with them are changing
faster than anywhere else.

-- The second costliest year of the study period, 2011, was dominated by
strong storms. Insured losses in the U.S. due to thunderstorms alone was
the highest on record at an estimated $26 billion, more than double the
previous thunderstorm record set in 2010.

-- Insured losses from disasters averaged $9 billion a year in the 1980s.
By the 2000s, the average soared to $36 billion per year.

Global warming combined with natural cycles such as the El Niño or La Niña
phenomena also intensify the risk of severe weather. "This will result in
higher natural peril losses and affect not only the onset of heat waves,
droughts and thunderstorms but also, in the long term, the intensity of
tropical cyclones," the report finds.

Reinsurers such as Munich Re offer backup policies to companies writing
primary insurance policies. Reinsurance helps spread risk, so the system
can handle large losses from natural disasters.

"We see some trends that are linked with changes in atmospheric conditions,
such as more water content in the atmosphere due to global warming," Hoppe
says. Additional water vapor in the atmosphere is the fuel for the big
storms, he says.

However, other experts take issue with Munich Re's findings. "Thirty years
is not an appropriate length of time for a climate analysis, much less
finding causal factors like climate change," says Roger Pielke, a professor
of environmental studies at the University of Colorado.

Another reinsurer, Axa, isn't quite sure of the link either: "While a clear
upward trend arises from the figure with respect to the number of reported
natural events, the attribution of this rise to a climate change signal
should be investigated very cautiously," the French company says in its
report "Climate Risks" released earlier this month.

Atmospheric scientist Clifford Mass of the University of Washington also
has a problem with Munich Re's findings, saying that once the data are
adjusted for population there is no recent upward trend in tornado or
hurricane damages. Also, he adds that there is no evidence that global
warming is causing more extreme weather in the USA.

Hoppe, however, says that even if we adjust for population spread and
increased property values, Munich Re still says there were significant
increases in the costs of weather disasters over the past few years.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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