[Vision2020] 10-2-12 Science Daily: "Irreversible Warming Will Cause Sea Levels to Rise for Thousands of Years, New Research Shows"

[Ted Moffett]

Contrary to what we often hear from those wishing to dismiss long term
impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, credible science
indicates impacts of what we now doing to the Earth's climate system are
likely to continue for many centuries, indeed many thousands of years.  I
suppose it goes without saying that our economic, social, ideological and
political systems are simply unequipped at even their best to grapple with
the full implications of these long term impacts, given the short term
focus that is mostly evident.   What economist has included the economic
costs of a 6.8 meter rise in global sea level by 3000, in their
calculations of the costs to the global economy of our current climate
change inducing behavior?  Let future generations pay the costs induced by
our climate altering behavior, as they adapt to profound environmental
damage!  This manner of thinking is similar to the allegedly irresponsible
tax and spend deficit inducing liberal approach to the federal budget,
except in this case it often comes from so called fiscal conservatives, who
appear to think we can tax and spend eco-system capital at a massive level,
without passing an eco-system budget deficit to the next generation.  Of
course many of these so called fiscal conservatives don't even acknowledge
they are advocating a massive eco-system budget deficit.  Global warming is
a hoax, or even a benefit, or mostly natural in cause, or will be easily
adapted to if it happens...

Those who conceive of the "natural environment" as though it is something
separate from human economics, social and spiritual identity, the very
fabric of our being, are living an illusion

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Abstract and full text at websites below for science paper discussed on the
"Science Daily" website below:
Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system
model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/045401/

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/045401/pdf/1748-9326_7_4_045401.pdf
----------------------------------------------------

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121001191531.htm
Irreversible Warming Will Cause Sea Levels to Rise for Thousands of Years
to Come, New Research Shows

ScienceDaily (Oct. 2, 2012) — Greenhouse gas emissions up to now have
triggered an irreversible warming of Earth that will cause sea levels to
rise for thousands of years to come, new research has shown.

The results come from a study, published today (Oct. 2) in IOP Publishing's
journal *Environmental Research Letters*, which sought to model sea-level
changes over millennial timescales, taking into account all of Earth's land
ice and the warming of the oceans -- something which has not been done
before.

The research showed that we have already committed ourselves to a sea-level
rise of 1.1 metres by the year 3000 as a result of our greenhouse gas
emissions up to now. This irreversible damage could be worse, depending on
the route we take to mitigating our emissions.

If we were to follow the high A2 emissions scenario adopted by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a sea-level rise of 6.8
metres could be expected in the next thousand years. The two other IPCC
scenarios analysed by the researchers, the B1 and A1B scenarios, yielded
sea-level rises of 2.1 and 4.1 metres respectively.

"Ice sheets are very slow components in the climate system; they respond on
time scales of thousands of years," said co-author of the study Professor
Philippe Huybrechts.

"Together with the long life-time of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
this inertia is the real poison on the climate system: anything we do now
that changes the forcing in the climate system will necessarily have long
consequences for the ice sheets and sea level."

In all of the scenarios that the researchers analysed, the Greenland ice
sheet was responsible for more than half of the sea level rises; thermal
expansion of the oceans was the second highest contributor, and the
contribution of glaciers and ice was only small.

The researchers believe this is the first study to include glaciers, ice
caps, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and the thermal expansion of
the oceans into a projection of sea-level rises. They did so by using a
climate modelling system called LOVECLIM, which includes components from a
number of different subsystems.

The polar ice sheets are not normally included into projections due to
computational constraints, whilst researchers often find it difficult to
account for the 200 000 individual glaciers that are found all over the
world in very different climatic settings.

Professor Huybrechts continued: "Ultimately the current polar ice sheets
store about 65 metres of equivalent sea level and if climatic warming will
be severe and long-lasting all ice will eventually melt.

"Mankind should limit the concentration of greenhouse gases at the lowest
possible level as soon as possible. The only realistic option is a drastic
reduction of the emissions. The lower the ultimate warming will be, the
less severe the ultimate consequences will be."

The researchers are from Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Manchester
Metropolitan University and the Université catholique de Louvain.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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