[Vision2020] "You've been living in a dream world, Neo!": IEA: 2011 Global CO2 Emissions Record High

[Ted Moffett]

Quote from the International Energy Agency article at bottom of post,
on 2011 record high global CO2 emissions:

“The new data provide further evidence that the door to a 2°C
trajectory is about to close,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.
------------------------
Like Morpheus says in the film "Matrix," to enlighten Neo about the
scam virtual life the AI machines fed his brain, claims of progress in
climate change negotiations and agreements, Kyoto, Copenhagen, Durban,
green energy, conservation, etc., are occurring in a virtual dream
world, as the problem continues to get more out of control, as
objective facts indicate progress is not being made.

Bottom line: till CO2 emissions globally drop dramatically
( http://www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/pdf/80by2020doc.pdf )
 and atmospheric CO2 levels at least stop increasing, there is no
progress being made to prevent catastrophic climate change.

To argue otherwise is like arguing as someone bleeds to death, that
though the rate of bleeding is increasing, we are planning to slow the
flow, and have technology under development to treat the problem...
Soon the patient is dead, while so called "progress" is being made...

Current CO2 atmospheric level is about 396 ppm, about a 2.9 ppm
increase from one year ago.  At that rate, by about 2070, humanity
will have pushed atmospheric CO2 level to the first doubling above
pre-industrial level of about 280 ppm, to 560 ppm, and will be heading
into the second doubling of atmospheric CO2 level above 560 ppm:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
http://co2now.org/

The 450 Scenario (450 ppm atmospheric CO2e, which figures other
greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, as though their impacts were
CO2 added to CO2 level:
http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=294 ) discussed
in the IEA article below, is an optimistic roll of the climate change
dice, as the following paper from the NASA website indicates, which is
the basis for the Bill McKibben led 350.org effort:
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00410c.html
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V.
Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos,
2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos.
Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2012/may/name,27216,en.html

Global carbon-dioxide emissions increase by 1.0 Gt in 2011 to record high

24 May 2012

Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion
reached a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2011, according to
preliminary estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This
represents an increase of 1.0 Gt on 2010, or 3.2%. Coal accounted for
45% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil
(35%) and natural gas (20%).

The 450 Scenario of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011, which sets
out an energy pathway consistent with a 50% chance of limiting the
increase in the average global temperature to 2°C, requires CO2
emissions to peak at 32.6 Gt no later than 2017, i.e. just 1.0 Gt
above 2011 levels. The 450 Scenario sees a decoupling of CO2 emissions
from global GDP, but much still needs to be done to reach that goal as
the rate of growth in CO2 emissions in 2011 exceeded that of global
GDP. “The new data provide further evidence that the door to a 2°C
trajectory is about to close,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.

In 2011, a 6.1% increase in CO2 emissions in countries outside the
OECD was only partly offset by a 0.6% reduction in emissions inside
the OECD. China made the largest contribution to the global increase,
with its emissions rising by 720 million tonnes (Mt), or 9.3%,
primarily due to higher coal consumption. “What China has done over
such a short period of time to improve energy efficiency and deploy
clean energy is already paying major dividends to the global
environment”, said Dr. Birol. China’s carbon intensity — the amount of
CO2 emitted per unit of GDP — fell by 15% between 2005 and 2011. Had
these gains not been made, China’s CO2 emissions in 2011 would have
been higher by 1.5 Gt.

India’s emissions rose by 140 Mt, or 8.7%, moving it ahead of Russia
to become the fourth largest emitter behind China, the United States,
and the European Union. Despite these increases, per-capita CO2
emissions in China and India still remain just 63% and 15% of the OECD
average respectively.

CO2 emissions in the United States in 2011 fell by 92 Mt, or 1.7%,
primarily due to ongoing switching from coal to natural gas in power
generation and an exceptionally mild winter, which reduced the demand
for space heating. US emissions have now fallen by 430 Mt (7.7%) since
2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions. This
development has arisen from lower oil use in the transport sector
(linked to efficiency improvements, higher oil prices and the economic
downturn which has cut vehicle miles travelled) and a substantial
shift from coal to gas in the power sector. CO2 emissions in the EU in
2011 were lower by 69 Mt, or 1.9%, as sluggish economic growth cut
industrial production and a relatively warm winter reduced heating
needs. By contrast, Japan’s emissions increased by 28 Mt, or 2.4%, as
a result of a substantial increase in the use of fossil fuels in power
generation post-Fukushima.
------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett