[Vision2020] NASA GISS: Jan. 2012 Global Temp. 19th Warmest: Arctic "Polar Amplification" Warmth Continues

[Ted Moffett]

Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis of global average surface
temperature (note this includes the entire global surface, about 70%
water and 30% land, combined) indicates January 2012 is the 19th
warmest since 1880.  Note all 19 warmest January months for global
average temperature have occurred from 1958 through 2012.

This is a surprising departure from most monthly global average
temperature results in recent years (past decade), given that a month
occurred as far back as 1958, that was warmer than a given month.
January 2012 was the coldest for global average temperatures of any
January month from 2001 through 2012, except for January 2008.

All the other 18 warmest January months have occured from 1981 through
2012, with January 1958 a rather interesting "outlier" warm month,
assuming I read the GISTEMP data correctly.

I am reading the GISTEMP data set from the website immediately below,
off the cuff, not referencing any other analysis:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
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Highlighting how variable regional short term weather patterns can
develop compared to global average temperatures is the warm US January
2012 temperatures (note, however, that the contiguous US is only about
1.5% of total global, water and land, surface area!), the 4th warmest
in the instrumental record, according to the National Climatic Data
Center website immediately below, that offers a wide ranging overview
of recent US climate/weather patterns:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/

The Palouse, I think it accurate to state, saw a mild meteorological
(Dec. Jan. Feb.)winter overall, both for precipitation and
temperature, especially considering the expected impacts of La Nina,
more than average snow, which did not happen.  I do not recall a
single Moscow, Idaho daytime high termperature below 20 F. this past
winter!  However, areas in Alaska and Europe in January 2012
experienced brutal deadly record setting cold, as reported on Dr. Jeff
Masters' climate science website:
http://www.worldweatherpost.com/2012/01/31/bitter-cold-in-alaska-and-europe-alaskas-79af-reading-bogus/
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Despite the year to year variability in local and global temperatures,
which can in the short term due to natural climate factors (solar,
volcanoes, ENSO, et. al.) displace the long term warming signal from
anthropogenic climate change (which it's very important to consider
includes what is sometimes called "global dimming" from human sourced
atmospheric aerosols. i. e. particulates, importantly sulfates from
coal fired plants (China!), that reflect solar energy and cool
climate, thus to some extent masking global warming), the Arctic
continued in January 2012 with anomalous widespread warmth, as is
obvious from the color coded global temperature map for January 2012,
offered by GISTEMP at the following website, that displays an extreme
warm anomaly over North America extending into the US, and over large
areas of the Arctic:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=01&year1=2012&year2=2012&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

This warm Arctic anomaly is sometimes referenced as "polar amplification"
from the radiative forcing of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels from
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that was predicted by climate
scientists at least as early as 1980: Manabe, Syukuro, and Ronald J
Stouffer, 1980: Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase
of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 85(C10), 5529-5554:
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/results.php?author=1070
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sm8001.pdf?PHPSESSID=141ca3d145efd058508e335b76a564ee

Some researchers indicate Nobel Laureate Arrhenius, who some consider the
father of modern climate science, predicted polar amplification over a
century ago.  Climate science researcher Barton Paul Levenson lists the
climate model verifications of anthropogenic climate warming at this
website, among them "polar amplification" with a reference to "Arrhenius
1896": "Are the Models Untestable?"
http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ModelsReliable.html

Arrhenius's 1896 paper on climate sensitivity, the change in global average
surface temperature from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is here:  "On the
Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground:"
http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
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We continue to approach one of the critical climate change tipping
points, "Arctic summer ice free," mentioned in the following superb
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences paper "Reducing abrupt
climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory
actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions" from August 2009:
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full

The tipping points mentioned are Amazon die-off, ENSO intensification,
Arctic summer ice free, Greenland destabilization, Himalayan-Tibetan
glacier destabiliation, thermohaline ocean current disruption, West
Antarctica destabilization.

>From  the abstract:

"Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have
already committed the planet to an increase in average surface
temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical
threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt
change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences.
This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not
already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference”
(DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for
“early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid
DAI and abrupt climate changes."

The climate change tipping points mentioned in this paper are
presented in the following graph:
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.large.jpg

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett