[Vision2020] Atheism to Defeat Religion By 2038?

[Art Deco]

1.  Although the use of the words "theist", "agnostic", and "atheist"
continue in popular discussions to denote believers in some god(s) or
other(s), unsure, and those that affirm that no god(s) exist, a more
fruitful way to categorize on the basis of belief in some god(s) or
other(s) is simple words "believers" and "non-believers".

Believer:  One who believes there is a greater than or equal to a 50%
probability that some god(s) exist.

Non-believer:  One who believes that there is less than a 50% chance that
some god(s) exist.

In practice,  the majority of believers generally believer that the
probability is very high while non-believers believe it to be very low.

The reason this is a fruitful to look the issue that the the existence of a
god or gods can be examined as a knowledge claim subject to evaluation on
the basis of evidence and logical consistency.

For example,  look at knowledge claims of the type "X exists."

How is it determined that statements/knowledge claims of the Type "X
exists" are true or in actuality, probable?

First, X must be defined in a certain way, namely what are the set of
properties P of X.

Second, the elements of p need to be tested for logical consistency.  If
the set contains a contradiction, which is always a false statement, then
obliviously X cannot exists.

Third, for each property p element of P, how is it determined and with what
probability whether any object possesses the property p?

Fourth, is there an object X which possesses all the elements of P.

Example:

Unicorn = a horse like animal with a single, spiral, elongated conical horn
protruding from its forehead.

P ={horse like, a single, spiral, elongated conical horn protruding from
its forehead}

There does not appear to be any contradiction in the definition P of
unicorn, hence, the possibility that an unicorn exists is a testable one.

To test whether the knowledge claim "Unicorns exist" is true or probable
tests for being horselike (which involves a number of other tests based on
certain criteria) and tests for having a single, spiral, elongated conical
horn protruding from its forehead -- basically a simple observation -- need
to be made.

If it is found that there is a probability greater than 50% that an object
exist with both of the properties, then then the knowledge claim "Unicorns
exist" is considered probable, if not, the question remains open, but
considered improbable.

Consider the knowledge claim "God exists".

First, the set P for the properties of the object God must be listed.

Here we have a problem right at the beginning.  There is no general
agreement about which properties any alleged God has.  Even within a
particular religion, for example, Christianity, there is no agreement.

Second, many definitions of God contain contradictions, for example the
contradiction the problem of Evil illustrates.

Third, how do you test for the different properties (the elements p of P)
given in the set P that defines the object God?  For example, how do you
test for being "the creator of the universe"?

Fourth, are some of the properties p alleged to be in P really there?  For
example, "God is omnibenevolent."  Recently a tidal wave born of an
underwater earthquake killed in one fell swoop 250,000 to 300,000 persons
including babies just born.  Is this benevolence?  Hardly.   Many examples
of natural disasters, not to mention disease and famine throughout history
can be cited as evidence that the object God, if define as having the
property "omnibenevolence" does not exist -- or put another way the
assertion that God possesses the property omnibenevolence is a false
assertion.

Taking the statement "God exists" as a knowledge claim than allows a method
of testing whether that statement is true.

Whether it is true is left as an exercise for the reader.  Be sure to
consider all four steps.

w.



On Thu, Jun 7, 2012 at 6:14 PM, deb <debismith at moscow.com> wrote:

> Bingo, and on the nose in one! Humans have never known what they were
> talking about when it comes to connection with the Devine. Likely we never
> will. religion (faith, belief in god(s) etc.)  is a way of making sense of
> the world, finding a metaphor that explains something, and giving us a
> place to put emotional content. Building Balefires, pyramids, temples, Oak
> Groves, or fatted calves is simply a means of expressing a need for someone
> (anyone?) else to intervene in the human catastrophe.....or expressing our
> own need to intervene in the mess we humans make of our lives and world.
>
> Personally, I think it is too much control to give over, too much
> responsibility to dodge, and too little return on the investment to
> "worship" anything or "anyone"....
> But, that's just me. Glad when others find something valuable (to them) in
> their religious preference.
> Debi R-S
> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Joe Campbell" <
> philosopher.joe at gmail.com>
> To: "Donovan Arnold" <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com>
> Cc: <vision2020 at moscow.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2012 7:04 PM
> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Atheism to Defeat Religion By 2038?
>
>
>
> "How can someone believe definitively something that cannot ever be
> proved or disproved by its very definition?" Similar comments would
> seem to apply to the believe that God exists.
>
> It seems to me that if you can have good reason for thinking that God
> exists, then you could have good reasons for thinking that he doesn't
> exist. Thus, were the world perfect that would constitute a reason for
> believing in a perfect creator. But then some folks think that the
> lack of perfection in the world is a reason for supposing that God
> doesn't exist. After all, if he did exist, why the lack of perfection?
>
> I'm sure you have a story to tell. That's not the point, although
> feeling certain that something exists and being certain that it exists
> are two different things. The point is you've got to give people some
> slack when it comes to religious beliefs because none of us know what
> the heck we're talking about. Not the theists, not the atheists; none
> of us.
>
>
> On Wed, Jun 6, 2012 at 3:57 PM, Donovan Arnold
> <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> Atheism is completely illogical and will never overtake the belief in God.
>> Atheism is the belief that there is "No God". How can someone believe
>> definitively something that cannot ever be proved or disproved by its very
>> definition?
>>
>> Doubt God? Yes, that makes sense to some who have never experienced him.
>> Doubt religion, yes, as many are anything but man made fabrications. Doubt
>> certain Gods exists, certainly. But to proclaim, with all certainly there
>> is
>> no God, is to claim that you know everything, either makes you a God, or a
>> fool.
>>
>> People that put their faith and security in human wisdom, material goods,
>> wealth, money, and things of the Earth are fools, for they can all be
>> taken,
>> and will be taken from them. People should put their faith in love,
>> understanding, and their belief in doing what is right by each other. Only
>> by loving others, caring for others, and doing for others will you ever
>> know
>> God and be certain of His existence.
>>
>> Donovan J. Arnold
>>
>> From: Art Deco <art.deco.studios at gmail.com>
>> To: vision2020 at moscow.com
>> Sent: Wednesday, June 6, 2012 4:08 PM
>> Subject: [Vision2020] Atheism to Defeat Religion By 2038?
>>
>> Atheism to Defeat Religion By 2038
>>
>> Posted: 06/05/2012 5:00 pm
>>
>> Countries with the best standard of living are turning atheist. That shift
>> offers a glimpse into the world's future.
>> Religious people are annoyed by claims that belief in God will go the way
>> of
>> horse transportation, and for much the same reason, specifically an
>> improved
>> standard of living.
>> The view that religious belief will give way to atheism is known as the
>> secularization thesis. The specific version that I favor (1) is known as
>> the
>> existential security hypothesis. The basic idea is that as people become
>> more affluent, they are less worried about lacking for basic necessities,
>> or
>> dying early from violence or disease. In other words they are secure in
>> their own existence. They do not feel the need to appeal to supernatural
>> entities to calm their fears and insecurities.
>> The notion that improving living conditions are associated with a decline
>> in
>> religion is supported by a mountain of evidence (1,2,3).
>> That does not prevent some serious scholars, like political scientist Eric
>> Kaufmann (4), from making the opposite case that religious fundamentalists
>> will outbreed the rest of us. Yet, noisy as they can be, such groups are
>> tiny minorities of the global population and they will become even more
>> marginalized as global prosperity increases and standards of living
>> improve.
>> Moreover, as religious fundamentalists become economically integrated,
>> young
>> women go to work and produce smaller families, as is currently happening
>> for
>> Utah's Mormons.
>> The most obvious approach to estimating when the world will switch over to
>> being majority atheist is based on economic growth. This is logical
>> because
>> economic development is the key factor responsible for secularization. In
>> deriving this estimate, I used the nine most godless countries as my
>> touchstone (excluding Estonia as a formerly communist country).
>> The countries were Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany,
>> Japan,
>> Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. These nine countries averaged
>> out at the atheist transition in 2004 (5) with exactly half of the
>> populations disbelieving in God. Their gross domestic product (GDP)
>> averaged
>> $29,822 compared to $10,855 for the average country in the world. How long
>> will it take before the world economy has expanded sufficiently that the
>> GDP
>> of the average country has caught up to the average for the godless
>> countries in 2004?
>>
>> Using the average global growth rate of GDP for the past 30 years of 3.33
>> percent (based on International Monetary Fund data from their website),
>> the
>> atheist transition would occur in 2035.
>> Belief in God is not the only relevant measure of religion, of course. A
>> person might believe in God in a fairly superficial way without religion
>> affecting his or her daily life. One way of assessing the depth of
>> religious
>> commitment is to ask survey participants whether they think that religion
>> is
>> important in their daily lives as the Gallup Organization has done in
>> worldwide nationally representative surveys.
>> If fewer than 50 percent of the population agreed that religion was
>> important to them, then the country has effectively crossed over to a
>> secular majority. The godless countries by religiosity were Spain, South
>> Korea, Canada, Switzerland, Uruguay, Germany and France. At a growth rate
>> of
>> 3.33 percent per year it would be 2041 before the average country in the
>> world would be at an equivalent level of affluence as these godless
>> nations.
>> If national wealth drives secularization, the global population will cross
>> an atheist threshold where the majority see religion as unimportant by
>> 2041.
>> Averaging across the two measures of atheism, the entire world population
>> would cross the atheist threshold by about 2038 (average of 2035 for
>> disbelief and 2041 for religiosity). Although 2038 may seem improbably
>> fast,
>> this requires only a shift of approximately 1 percent per year whether in
>> religiosity or belief in God. Using the Human Development Index as a clock
>> suggests an even earlier arrival for the atheist transition (1).
>> Is the loss of religious belief something fear? Contrary to the claims of
>> religious leaders, Godless countries are highly moral nations with an
>> unusual level of social trust, economic equality, low crime and a high
>> level
>> of civic engagement (5). We could do with some of that.
>> Sources
>> 1. Barber, N. (2012). Why atheism will replace religion: The triumph of
>> earthly pleasures over pie in the sky. E-book, available at:
>> http://www.amazon.com/Atheism-**Will-Replace-Religion-ebook/**
>> dp/B00886ZSJ6/<http://www.amazon.com/Atheism-Will-Replace-Religion-ebook/dp/B00886ZSJ6/>
>> 2. Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2004). Sacred and secular: Religion and
>> politics worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
>> 3. Barber, N. (2011). A Cross-National test of the uncertainty hypothesis
>> of
>> religious belief Cross-Cultural Research, 45, 318-333.
>> 4. Kaufmann, E. (2010). Shall the religious inherit the earth? London:
>> Profile books.
>> 5. Zuckerman, P. (2008). Society without God: What the least religious
>> nations can tell us about contentment. New York: New York University
>> Press.
>>
>>
>> --
>> Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
>> art.deco.studios at gmail.com
>>
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>
> ==============================**=========================
> List services made available by First Step Internet,
> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>              http://www.fsr.net
>         mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com
> ==============================**=========================
> ==============================**=========================
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> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
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-- 
Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
art.deco.studios at gmail.com
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