[Vision2020] U.S. Confidence in Organized Religion at Low Point

[Art Deco]

    <http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx?ref=logo>
        July 12, 2012
U.S. Confidence in Organized Religion at Low Point Catholics' confidence
remains significantly lower than Protestants'
by Lydia Saad

PRINCETON, NJ -- Forty-four percent of Americans have a great deal or quite
a lot of confidence in "the church or organized religion" today, just below
the low points Gallup has found in recent years, including 45% in 2002 and
46% in 2007. This follows a long-term decline in Americans' confidence in
religion since the 1970s.

[image: Trend: "Great Deal"/"Quite a Lot" of Confidence in the
Church/Organized Religion]

In 1973, "the church or organized religion" was the most highly rated
institution in Gallup's confidence in institutions measure, and it
continued to rank first in most years through 1985, outranking the military
and the U.S. Supreme Court, among others. That began to change in the mid-
to late 1980s as confidence in organized religion first fell below 60%,
possibly resulting from scandals during that time involving famed
televangelist preachers Jim Bakker and Jimmy Swaggart. Confidence in
religion returned to 60% in 2001, only to be rocked the following year by
charges of child molestation by Catholic priests and cover-up by some in
the church.

The latest results are from Gallup's June 7-10 update of its annual
"Confidence in Institutions" question. The same poll found Americans'
confidence
in public schools<http://www.gallup.com/poll/155258/Confidence-Public-Schools-New-Low.aspx>,
banks<http://www.gallup.com/poll/155357/Americans-Confidence-Banks-Falls-Record-Low.aspx>,
and television news<http://www.gallup.com/poll/155585/Americans-Confidence-Television-News-Drops-New-Low.aspx>at
their all-time lowest, perhaps reflecting a broader souring of
Americans' confidence in societal institutions in 2012. Still, the
church/organized religion ranks fourth this year among the 16 institutions
tested, on par with the medical system.

*Protestants More Confident Than Catholics*

Currently, 56% of Protestants express a great deal or quite a lot of
confidence in the church/organized religion, compared with 46% of
Catholics. This is in line with an average 12-percentage-point difference
in the two groups' confidence, according Gallup polling from 2002 through
2012, with Protestants consistently expressing higher confidence. There are
too few respondents of other specific religions to analyze separately;
however, confidence among all other Americans combined is 29%, far less
than either Protestants' or Catholics'.

Catholics' confidence dipped to a record low in 2002 and again in 2007. The
2002 result most likely reflected a high-profile child sex abuse case
against a Massachusetts priest at the time, as well as charges of a
cover-up by Boston Cardinal Bernard Law, who ultimately resigned over the
matter. The drop in 2007 may have been part of a broader trend that
saw confidence
in most U.S. institutions drop that
year<http://www.gallup.com/poll/27946/Americans-Confidence-Congress-AllTime-Low.aspx>
.

[image: Confidence in the Church/Organized Religion, by Religious
Preference -- 2002-2012]

Gallup did not record respondents' religious preference in its Confidence
in Institutions polls for most of the 1990s. However, religion was
routinely asked on surveys prior to that, and the earlier trends show that
Protestants' and Catholics' confidence in religion was fairly similar from
1973 through 1979. Then, from 1981 through 1991, Catholics consistently
expressed less confidence in religion than Protestants did, by an average
of six points.

[image: Confidence in the Church/Organized Religion, by Religious
Preference -- 1973-1991]

*Bottom Line*

Two major findings apparent in Gallup's confidence in the church and
organized religion trend are, first, the long-term decline in Americans'
confidence in this societal institution since 1973, and second, the
suppressed confidence among Catholics relative to Protestants starting in
1981, and becoming more pronounced by 2002.

While various sex abuse scandals involving U.S. clerics have likely played
a role in Americans' growing skepticism about the church and organized
religion, the decline in confidence does not necessarily indicate a decline
in Americans' personal attachment to religion. The percentage of Americans
saying religion is very important in their
lives<http://www.gallup.com/poll/145409/Near-Record-High-Religion-Losing-Influence-America.aspx>has
held fairly steady since the mid-1970s, after dropping sharply from
1952 levels.
*Survey Methods*

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted
June 7-10, 2012, with a random sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older,
living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with
95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage
points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and
cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who
are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400
cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national
adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by
region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed
telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial
methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on
the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education,
region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline
only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number).
Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current
Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized
population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of
sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample
design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties
in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
public opinion polls.

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-- 
Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)
art.deco.studios at gmail.com
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