[Vision2020] 7-10-2012: New NOAA-led Report from 378 Scientists in 48 Nations Examines World 2011 Climate

[Ted Moffett]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120710_stateoftheclimatereport.htmlBack-to-back
La Niñas cooled globe and influenced extreme weather in 2011 New NOAA-led
report examines climate conditions experienced around the world
July 10, 2012

Worldwide, 2011 was the coolest year on record since 2008, yet temperatures
remained above the 30 year average, according to the *2011 State of the
Climate* report released
online<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2011.php>today
by NOAA. The peer-reviewed report, issued in coordination with the
American Meteorological Society (AMS), was compiled by 378 scientists from
48 countries around the world. It provides a detailed update on global
climate indicators, notable weather events and other data collected by
environmental monitoring stations and instruments on land, sea, ice and sky.

“2011 will be remembered as a year of extreme events, both in the United
States and around the world,” said Deputy NOAA Administrator Kathryn D.
Sullivan, Ph.D. “Every weather event that happens now takes place in the
context of a changing global environment. This annual report provides
scientists and citizens alike with an analysis of what has happened so we
can all prepare for what is to come.”

Two back-to-back La Niñas, each characterized by cooler-than-average water
temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, affected regional climates
and influenced many of the world’s significant weather
events<http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/state-of-the-climate-in-2011-highlights/2>throughout
the year. These included historic droughts in East Africa, the
southern United States and northern Mexico. La Niña conditions contributed
to an above-average tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic hurricane
basin and a below-average season in the Eastern North Pacific. It was also
associated with the wettest two-year period (2010–2011) on record in
Australia, which was particularly remarkable as the wet conditions followed
a decade-long dry spell.

The Arctic continued to show more rapid changes than the rest of the
planet. Sea ice shrank to its second smallest “summer minimum” extent on
record during 2011, as older ice (four to five years old) reached a new
record minimum at more than 80 percent below average. Overall, glaciers
around the world continued to lose mass. Loss from Canadian Arctic glaciers
and ice caps were the greatest since measurements began in 2002.

The report used 43 climate indicators to track and identify changes and
overall trends to the global climate system. These indicators include
greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature of the lower and upper
atmosphere, cloud cover, sea surface temperature, sea level rise, ocean
salinity, sea ice extent and snow cover. Each indicator includes thousands
of measurements from multiple independent datasets.

*Highlights:*

   - *Warm temperature trends continue:* Four independent datasets show
   2011 among the 15 warmest since records began in the late 19th century,
   with annually-averaged temperatures above the 1981–2010 average, but
   coolest on record since 2008. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice
   the rate compared with lower latitudes. On the opposite pole, the South
   Pole station recorded its all-time highest temperature of 9.9°F on December
   25, breaking the previous record by more than 2 degrees.

    - *Greenhouse gases climb:* Major greenhouse gas concentrations,
   including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, continued to rise.
   Carbon dioxide steadily increased in 2011 and the yearly global average
   exceeded 390 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since instrumental
   records began. This represents an increase of 2.10 ppm compared with the
   previous year. There is no evidence that natural emissions of methane in
   the Arctic have increased significantly during the last decade.

    - *Arctic sea ice extent decreases: *Arctic sea ice extent was below
   average for all of 2011 and has been since June 2001, a span of 127
   consecutive months through December 2011. Both the maximum ice extent (5.65
   million square miles, March 7) and minimum extent (1.67 million square
   miles, September 9) were the second smallest of the satellite era.

    - *Ozone levels in Arctic drop:* In the upper atmosphere, temperatures
   in the tropical stratosphere were higher than average while temperatures in
   the polar stratosphere were lower than average during the early 2011 winter
   months. This led to the lowest ozone concentrations in the lower Arctic
   stratosphere since records began in 1979 with more than 80 percent of the
   ozone between 11 and 12 miles altitude destroyed by late March, increasing
   UV radiation levels at the surface.
   -
      - *Sea surface temperature & ocean heat content rise:* Even with La
      Niña conditions occurring during most of the year, the 2011 global sea
      surface temperature was among the 12 highest years on record. Ocean heat
      content, measured from the surface to 2,300 feet deep, continued to rise
      since records began in 1993 and was record high.

       - *Ocean salinity trends continue:* Continuing a trend that began in
      2004 and similar to 2010, oceans were saltier than average in
areas of high
      evaporation, including the western and central tropical Pacific, and
      fresher than average in areas of high precipitation, including
the eastern
      tropical South Pacific, suggesting that precipitation is increasing in
      already rainy areas and evaporation is intensifying in drier locations.
   -

   The report also provides details on a number of extreme events
   experienced all over the globe, including the worst flooding in Thailand in
   almost 70 years, drought and deadly tornado outbreaks in the United States,
   devastating flooding in Brazil and the worst summer heat wave in central
   and southern Europe since 2003.

   The *2011 State of the Climate* report is peer-reviewed and published
   annually as a special supplement to the *Bulletin of the American
   Meteorological Society*. The report is part of a suite of climate
   services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they
   can make informed decisions. It was edited by Jessica Blunden, Ph.D., and
   Deke Arndt of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. The full
report<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2011.php>can
be viewed online. The report
   highlights<http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/state-of-the-climate-in-2011-highlights>are
available online.

   Additionally, for the first time a complementary article has been
   published by AMS today examining the linkages between climate change and
   extreme events of 2011. The paper looks at six global extreme weather and
   climate events from last year.

   *Findings:*
    - Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While
      scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute
      certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the
      probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

       - La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in
      2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years
today than
      La Niña years fifty years ago.

       - The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold
      December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK
scientists
      uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as
      likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm
Novembers are now
      62 times more likely.

       - Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in the 2011
      floods on the Chao Phraya River that flooded Bangkok, Thailand. Although
      the flooding was unprecedented, the amount of rain that fell in the river
      “catchment” area was not very unusual. Other factors, such as changes in
      reservoir policies and increased construction on the flood plain, were
      found most relevant in setting the scale of the disaster.

   The paper, *Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective*,
   was produced by NOAA and UK Met Offices scientists as well as numerous
   colleagues around the world. It was edited by Thomas Peterson, NOAA’s
   National Climatic Data Center; Peter Stott, UK Met Office-Hadley Center;
   and Stephanie Herring, NOAA’s* *Office of Program Planning and
   Integration. The
study<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2011.php>can
be viewed online.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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