[Vision2020] Amazing US June Heat Wave 2012: Record Global Average Temp. Predicted 2012-14

[Ted Moffett]

While the Palouse saw mostly mild temperatures in June 2012, in the US
numerous all time record highs were set or tied, surprising given many
all time record highs are set in the usually warmer months of July and
August.

Two articles from Dr. Jeff Masters' weather/climate website, on this
US heat wave, are pasted in lower down.

This is perhaps a signal that NASA's climate scientist James Hansen
was correct to predict that when the warming influence of El Nino next
reaches it's peak in the ENSO cycle, global average temperatures will
set a new record high.  Current ENSO conditions are neutral, the
recent La Nina cooling influence is gone, while a 50% chance of El
Nino developing in 2012 is stated by NOAA's Climate Prediction
Center/NCEP on June 25, 2012:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
----------------------
Goddard Institute for Space Studies James Hansen's prediction on next
record high global average temperature:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2011/

El Niño Cycle
Hansen et al. (2010) argued, in anticipation of the inevitable shift
from the then beginning La Niña to the next El Niño, that "The
12-month running mean global temperature in 2010 has reached a new
record level for the period of instrumental data. It is likely that
the 12-month mean will begin to decline in the second half of 2010.
The subsequent minimum in the 12-month running mean is likely to be in
2011-2012 and not as deep as the 2008 minimum. The next maximum,
likely to be in 2012-2014, will probably bring a new record global
temperature, because of the underlying warming trend."
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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=79

The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012. Part 1: The West and Plains June 23-27
Posted by: Christopher C. Burt, 8:17 PM GMT on June 29, 2012 +3

One of the most intense heat waves in U.S. history has enveloped
portions of the western plains and Midwest and has now spread
eastward. All-time heat records have fallen at a number of significant
weather stations. And it is still just June. Is this a prelude for the
coming summer or just a flash in the pan?

NOTE: This is Part 1 of two blogs, Part 2 will focus on the heat wave
in the eastern third of the country and will be posted on Sunday, July
1st.

The Set Up for the Heat Wave

June had been a warm but not excessively so month until around June
20-23rd when an upper level high pressure dome that had been centered
over the Baja of Mexico began to move/expand northeastward and
strengthen dramatically. Between June 23 and June 27 this dome
remained nearly stationary over the southern plains and maintained its
strength.

The air aloft became so abnormally warm that the NWS office in Dodge
City focused on how intense the air aloft was in their daily
discussions. At the 850 millibar level (about 5000’) the temperature
was averaging an amazing 30°C (86°F) at the 5 a.m. (12Z) observation
times on June 23-27!

The heat at surface level reached its greatest extent on June 26th,
although the period of all-time records broken ranged from June 23 to
June 27

Records set in the West and Plains June 22-27

COLORADO

Perhaps the single most impressive record broken of all was the 114°F
recorded at Las Animas, Colorado on June 23rd. This tied the hottest
temperature ever measured during any month anywhere in the entire
state of Colorado (114° has been recorded in the past at Las Animas on
July 1, 1933 and Sedgwick on July 11, 1954).

All-time heat records (for any month) were also set or tied in Denver
with 105° on both June 25 and June 26 (tied with 105° on July 20, 2005
and Aug. 8, 1878), Colorado Springs with 101° on June 26 (previous
record of 100° set on five previous occasions including June 24 and
June 25), Lamar hit 112° on June 27 (previous record 111° on July 13,
1934 and also on June 26, 2012). In far northeastern Colorado all-time
heat records were also set at Yuma (111°) and Holyoke (110°) on June
27th. June all-time monthly heat records were set at virtually every
site in the state east of the Rocky Mountain front range (like the
102°s at Fort Collins and Trinidad).

Denver reached 100°+ for a record tying five consecutive days June
22-16. Pueblo recorded six consecutive 105°+ days June 22-27, its
longest streak of such heat on record (its maximum was 107° on June
24th, two degrees short of its all-time record of 109° and one degree
short of its June record of 108° set on June 29, 1990).

The intense heat exacerbated the terrible wild fires in the Rocky
Mountain foothill communities of Fort Collins, Boulder, and Colorado
Springs where around 600 homes have been lost and at least two lives
lost.

KANSAS

Dodge City recorded its all-time (any month) record high of 111° on
June 27th (previous record of 110° set on 3 previous occasions
including June 26, 2011 AND June 26, 2012!). This is a particularly
significant measurement since Dodge City has one of the longest
continuous periods of record in the U.S.: since September 1874. Hill
City was the state’s hottest spot during the heat wave with 115°
measured on both June 26th and June 27th. This was a monthly record
for the site but not all-time (117° in July 1936). It was also just
one degree shy of the Kansas state monthly all-time June heat record
(116° at Hugoton on June 25, 1911). An unofficial 118° was reported
from Norton Dam on June 27th by a RAWS site.

All-time records were broken or tied also at Colby (112°, old record
110° in 1953) and Tribune with 111° (a sort POR here).

Most locations in the western third of Kansas broke their all-time
June monthly records such as Goodland’s 110° on June 24 and June 25
(old June record was 109° on June 18, 1936).

NEBRASKA

An all-time Nebraska state monthly heat record for June was set at
McCook with 115° on June 26 (previous record was 114° at Franklin on
June 26, 1936). This was also the all-time (any month) record for
McCook. Benkelman reached an all-time high of 114°. Sidney also broke
their all-time any month record with 111° the same day. Interestingly,
the high temp in Sidney may have been the result of heat burst since
the temperature rose from 102° at 3:52 p.m to 111° by 4:05 p.m (a 9°
rise in 14 minutes!). Thunderstorms were in the vicinity. This broke
the previous June monthly record by an astonishing 7°!

MONTANA

An all-time heat record (any month) was set at Miles City with 111° on
June 26. However, this reading was made at the airport (POR
1937-current) whereas a temperature of 113° was recorded at the Miles
City COOP downtown site on July 20, 1960 (POR 1893-1982). In any case,
the 111° was just one degree short of the Montana state monthly June
record (112° at Baker in June 2002).

NEW MEXICO

The excessive heat only affected the northeastern third of New Mexico.
Santa Fe and Tucumcari both came within 1° of their respective
all-time heat (any month) records: Santa Fe 99° on June 23 and
Tucumcari 108° on June 27. This was a June monthly record for
Tucumcari, but Santa Fe has seen 100° on June 5, 2010.

Could this be the Beginning of Another ‘Summer of 1936'?

The only previous June heat waves in U.S. history that compare to the
current one were those of 1934, 1936, and 1954. The summer of 1934
went on to be the warmest on record for the U.S. (74.6° June-August
average) and July 1936 the single hottest month on record (77.4°
average).

Ominously, some of the June records that have so far been set this
month have eclipsed those of June 1934 and 1936 (1954 turned out be a
summer of only slightly above long-term average normal temperature).

I’ll be posting part two of this blog (covering the heat records in
the eastern third of the country set during the period of June 28-30)
on Sunday July 1st.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html?entrynum=80

The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012: Part 2 June 28-30
By Christopher C. Burt

Published: 11:15 PM GMT on July 01, 2012
The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30

After scorching portions of the West and Plains early last week, the
amazing heat wave of June 2012 slid eastward on Thursday, June 28,
continuing to astonish us with more all-time heat records. Below is a
summary of those.

All-time Heat Records Broken or Tied June 28-30

There is no point in listing or even attempting to summarize all of
the June monthly records set in the region from Missouri to Maryland
and south to Georgia during the June 28-30 period. The 108° in St.
Louis on June 28th was perhaps the most significant of those. What was
truly astonishing was the number of all-time any month records that
were broken or tied.

This is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June
rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat
records have been set for this part of the country (unlike the
Southwest where June is often the month that all-time heat extremes
are recorded).

ILLINOIS

109° at Cairo Airport on June 29th broke the all-time record for Cairo
(old record 106° on August 9,1930) and also surpasses Illinois’ June
state record of 108° at Palestine in June 1954. Chicago reached 100°
at both O’Hare and Midway Airports on June 28th, the first 100°
reading for either site since 2005. As of July 1st Chicago O’Hare has
experienced 18 90°+ days so far this year, the most on record at this
point in the season and about what the average number of such days is
for an entire year.

INDIANA

106° was measured at Fort Wayne, Indiana on June 28 (tying the
all-time record set on 7/14/1936).

KENTUCKY

Paducah recorded 108° on June 29th, an all-time official record
(although a previous site in Paducah measured 112° in July 1930).
Bowling Green hit 109° on June 29th, short by 1° of Kentucky’s
all-time state June record of 110° at St. John’s Academy in June 1936.
All-time heat records were broken at Jackson (104°) and London (105°),
but these sites have short periods of record.

TENNESSEE

This has been the most intense heat event in Tennessee state history
(at least for the eastern two-thirds of the state). All-time records
were achieved at the following sites that have significant POR’s
(periods of record):

109° Nashville on June 29th (old record 107° on 7/28/1952)

107° Chattanooga on June 30th and July 1st (old record 106° on
6/29/2012 and 7/28/1952)

105° Knoxville on June 30th and July 1st (old record 104° on 7/12/1930)

103° Bristol on June 30th (old record 102° 7/28/1952)

A reading of 113° was reported from Smyrna on June 29th. If verified
this would tie the all-time state record for any month: Perryville’s
113° in July and August of 1930.

GEORGIA

Again, this was one of the hottest events in Georgia state history.
The following all-time (any month) records were tied or broken:

109° Athens on June 29th (old record 108° on 7/12/1930)

108° Macon on June 30th (ties same on 7/17/1980)

106° Atlanta on June 30th (old record 105° on 7/17/1980)

106° Columbus on June 30th (ties same on 9/5/1925)

The Athens’ reading of 109° was just 1° short of the June state record
of 110° set at Warrenton in June 1959. Perhaps some late COOP reports
will upset that figure. A reading of 107° was recorded at the Rome WSO
Airport site on June 30th, an all-time record (old record 106° on
7/29/1952) for that location (POR 1948-2012). However, the original
Rome weather station, with a POR from 1893-2010, reached 109° on July
20, 1913.

SOUTH CAROLINA

This was almost certainly the most intense heat wave in South
Carolina’s history. Here’s the run down (all-time any month heat
records):

109° Columbia on June 29th and 30th (old record 107° on multiple occasions).

107° Greenville on July 1st (old record 105° set on 6/29/2012 and
8/10/2007, although 106° was recorded by the Army Signal Corps on
July, 18, 1887).

Temperatures of 113° were reported from Johnston and the University of
South Carolina site in Columbia on June 29th. If verified these would
establish a new all-time state heat record for any month at any
location (current record being 111° at Camden on June 28, 1954).

NORTH CAROLINA

All-time heat records tied or broken:

105° Raleigh on June 29th and 30th (ties previous record set on
8/21/2007 and 8/18/1988)

104° Charlotte on June 29th and 30th (ties same on 8/9/2007,
8/10/2007, and 9/6/1954).

Southern Pines reported a temperature of 108° on June 30th. If
verified this would be a new June state heat record beating the 107°
reported from Lake Mitchie in June 1959 but short 2° of a suspicious
reading of 110° at Fayetteville on August 21, 1983. There appears to
be no data to support the figure from Fayetteville in 1983. The
hottest indisputable record for North Carolina is 109° at Weldon on
September 7, 1954.

VRIGINIA AND WASHINGTON D.C.

The 104° at National Airport in D.C. on June 29th fell 2° short of the
D.C. all-time record of 106° set on July 20, 1930. You may have
noticed that 1930 pops up often in terms of all-time heat records in
the Southeast.

108° was reported from Petersburg on June 29th. If verified this would
be the all-time Virginia state heat record for the month of June
(current record being 107° at Lincoln in June 1934). The all-time ‘any
month’ record for Virginia is disputed: 110° from Balcony Falls on
July 15, 1954 appears suspicious and the Virginia State Climate Office
has disallowed it. The next candidate is 109° at Lincoln on July 10,
1936. 109° was also reported at the Williamsburg Airport on July 25,
2010, but this appears to be an unofficial reading

Conclusion

There is no imminent conclusion to this heat wave. As the
high-pressure ridge over the Southeast weakens, a new ridge is
developing again over the Southwest and threatens to form a broad flat
upper-level dome stretching from New Mexico to Georgia. An up-to-date
list of all the ‘all-time’ heat records broken at significant sites
since June 23 may be found on ‘Wunderground U.S. Records’ under the
‘Climate’ tab at the top of the WU front page (scroll down to ‘Record
Extremes’.)

18 of the 298 locations I follow closely (because of their long POR’s
and representation of U.S. climate) have already broken or tied their
all-time heat records.

It is just July the 1st and the summer has just begun.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett