[Vision2020] NASA GISS: Dec. 2011 Global Avg. Temp. 10th Warmest Since 1880: Arctic Warmth Continues

[Ted Moffett]

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has released their analysis of
Dec. 2011 global average surface temperature.  Dec. 2011 was tied with Dec.
1987 as the 10th warmest Dec. since 1880, according to GISS.  Note GISS
indicates the 10 warmest Dec. months have occurred from 1997 through
2011, except Dec. 1987 being tied with Dec. 2011:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Also, note the continued widespread warm anomaly in the Arctic and
nearby regions(global color coded temp. map for Dec. 2011 at website
lower down), expressing what is sometimes called "polar amplification"
from the radiative forcing of increasing
atmospheric CO2 levels from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that
was predicted by climate scientists at least as early as 1980: Manabe,
Syukuro, and Ronald J Stouffer, 1980: Sensitivity of a global climate model
to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 85(C10), 5529-5554:
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/results.php?author=1070
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sm8001.pdf?PHPSESSID=141ca3d145efd058508e335b76a564ee

Some researchers indicate Nobel Laureate Arrhenius, who some consider the
father of modern climate science, predicted polar amplification over a
century ago.  Climate science researcher Barton Paul Levenson lists the
climate model verifications of anthropogenic climate warming at this
website, among them "polar amplification" with a reference to "Arrhenius
1896": "Are the Models Untestable?"
http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ModelsReliable.html

Arrhenius's 1896 paper on climate sensitivity, the change in global average
surface temperature from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is here:  "On the
Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground:"
http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf

GISS color coded global map for Dec. 2011 global average surface
temperatures reveals either cold or warm anomalies.  The Arctic and
regions nearby clearly have the warmest most widespread anomaly of any
area on Earth:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&month_last=12&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=12&year1=2011&year2=2011&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

We continue to approach one of the critical climate change tipping
points, "Arctic summer ice free," mentioned in the following superb
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences paper "Reducing abrupt
climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory
actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions" from August 2009:
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full
The tipping points mentioned are Amazon die-off, ENSO intensification,
Arctic summer ice free, Greenland destabilization, Himalayan-Tibetan
glacier destabiliation, thermohaline ocean current disruption, West
Antarctica destabilization.

>From  the abstract:

"Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have
already committed the planet to an increase in average surface
temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical
threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt
change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences.
This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not
already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference”
(DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for
“early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid
DAI and abrupt climate changes."

The climate change tipping points mentioned in this paper are
presented in the following graph:
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.large.jpg

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett