[Vision2020] Logical Science: The Arnold Schwarzenegger Challenge on Climate Change Skepticism

[Paul Rumelhart]

The popularity of a scientific hypothesis has little to do with how well 
it describes reality and how useful it is in practice.  It's a metric 
that is much more useful politically.

If those two doctors had been wise enough to run a series of tests that 
the others didn't run and could therefore conclude that the fever was a 
minor condition that would go away on it's own, then he would be wasting 
his money paying for the child's medical care and may even make his or 
her condition worse in the process.

Paul

Ted Moffett wrote:
> http://logicalscience.blogspot.com/2007/05/arnold-challenge-arnold-schwarzenegger.html
>  
> Arnold Schwarzenegger recently said 
> <http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/speech/5875/>:
>
>     Well, as I said, that I believe the scientists. It is like when my
>     child is sick and has a huge fever, and I go to 100 doctors, and
>     98 doctors says this child needs immediate medical care, and 2 say
>     no, forget it, go home and just relax, I go with the 98. It's as
>     simple as that. 
>
> Well lets see if the skeptics can meet even these standards. Arnold 
> claims that the dissenting 2% can be ignored. Marc Morano claims 
> <http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=927b9303-802a-23ad-494b-dccb00b51a12&IsPrint=true> 
> that this list of 12 skeptics 
> <http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=927b9303-802a-23ad-494b-dccb00b51a12&IsPrint=true> 
> is just the "tip of the iceberg" and:
>
>     A more detailed and comprehensive sampling of scientists who have
>     only recently spoken out against climate hysteria will be
>     forthcoming in a soon to be released U.S. Senate report. 
>
> According to Eli Rabett 
> <http://rabett.blogspot.com/2006/11/how-many-climate-scientists-are-there.html> 
> there are roughly 20,000-ish climatologists that are members of the 
> AGU. About 5,000 of those are Europeans taking part in a mostly 
> American club. There are no stats on worldwide climatologists yet. But 
> as Professor Eli also says: "if you ain't a member of the AGU you 
> ain't no damn climate scientist in the US". Well applying Arnold's 
> ignorable 2% to 20,000 AGU members means we can ignore, at a bare 
> minimum, 400 climate change skeptics worldwide. So will Marc Morano be 
> able to come meet Arnold's standards? With more than 388 missing AGU 
> skeptics to locate and an exiguous amount of anti-consensus papers in 
> peer review from 1993-2003 
> <http://www.logicalscience.com/consensus/consensus.htm#Journals>, my 
> guess is a big fat no.
>
> Source:
> Council on Foreign Relations Board Meeting 
> <http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/speech/5875/>, Thursday, 04/12/2007
> Marc Morano – Marc_Morano at EPW.Senate.Gov 
> <mailto:Marc_Morano at EPW.Senate.Gov> - 9:14 PM ET Climate Momentum 
> Shifting: Prominent Scientists Reverse Belief in Man-made Global 
> Warming - Now Skeptics 
> <http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=927b9303-802a-23ad-494b-dccb00b51a12&IsPrint=true> 
> Growing Number of Scientists Convert to Skeptics After Reviewing New 
> Research
> Rabett Run, How many climate scientists are there mommy? 
> <http://rabett.blogspot.com/2006/11/how-many-climate-scientists-are-there.html>, 
> Friday, November 10, 2006
> Science, BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER:The Scientific Consensus on Climate 
> Change 
> <http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/306/5702/1686?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&author1=oreskes&searchid=1103210845409_5389&stored_search=&FIRSTINDEX=0&fdate=10/1/1995&tdate=12/31/2004>, 
> Naomi Oreskes
> ------------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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