[Vision2020] Alberta's Tar Sands and Idaho's Wilderness Gateway

Paul Rumelhart godshatter at yahoo.com
Wed Jun 9 22:15:53 PDT 2010


Just what is it that you're dying to know? 

I'm not an expert on the science and engineering involved in extracting 
oil from tar sands, nor am I an expert on the history or potential of 
the Alberta Tar Sands project in general.  That's the homework I was 
referring to. 

I made an off-the-cuff remark about how expanding our domestic oil 
production might be considered "realistic" rather than "short-sighted".  
You responded a couple of times with posts I regret that I have not had 
the time to delve into in detail.  I simply threw my opinion out there, 
and moved on.  May it bless all that happen upon it.  I did not realize 
that you were awaiting with baited breath my in-depth and timely 
responses to your posts.  Couple that with just having arrived home 
after six hours of driving while not feeling well with a pounding 
headache, and you get my honest but admittedly rude response that 
included profanity, and, depending upon your particular religious 
leanings, blasphemy.  I apologize for that.

My impression from your "unanswered questions" post was that you were 
awaiting my answers and hearing no immediate response were concluding 
that I in fact had no worthwhile reply and you could thus mark this one 
off on your side of the "win" column since I'd taken a few days to 
reply.  I normally don't care much about that, but as I say you caught 
me at a particularly bad time.

Paul

Ted Moffett wrote:
> You responded to my claim that the development of the Alberta tar 
> sands was "short sighted" by disagreeing that it was short sighted, 
> calling it "realistic," earlier in the recent "Alberta Tar Sands and 
> Idaho's Wilderness Gateway" thread regarding Nick Gier's article, that 
> appeared under the title of that subject heading, as an op-ed in 
> today's Wednesday Moscow/Pullman Daily News. 
>  
> Your last response on this issue stated you "...haven't done my 
> homework on it."
>  
> If you choose to not answer questions, that's your choice.  Why 
> you responded angrily (if your profanity is a sign of anger) as 
> though posting here is some sort of dire obligation, I do not know.  
> Vision2020 of course is completely voluntary and no one has to respond 
> to anyone if they do not want to... Many questions go unanswered, 
> which is why I posted that sometimes the theme music for Vision2020 
> should be Charles Ives' "The Unanswered Question"
> Below is the previous post I am referring to, specifically on the 
> Alberta tar sands development, as the subject heading states, where 
> you stated you thought it was "realistic:"
>  
> [Vision2020] Alberta's Tar Sands and Idaho's Wilderness Gateway
>  
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-June/070385.html
>  
> --- On Tue, 6/1/10, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com 
> <http://mailman.fsr.com/mailman/listinfo/vision2020>> wrote:
> Some argue that it is a matter of national security and economic 
> necessity to develop and gain access to this huge oil resource that 
> can reduce oil dependence on other foreign oil sources, while we work 
> on alternative energy sources.  But this is short sighted, given that 
> climate change is a national security and planetary wide risk that is 
> increased with continued greenhouse gas emissions, while time is 
> running out to prevent climate change tipping points that will be 
> difficult to stop. 
>
> I wouldn't call it "short sighted", I'd call it "realistic".
>
> Here's how my logic goes:
>
> 1.  We need power.  We need it for a lot of things.  Transportation of 
> goods, heating and cooling, powering factories, running our financial 
> systems, gathering resources, military defense, etc.
>
> 2.  It would be better, for a lot of reasons, if we weren't dependent 
> upon fossil fuel use.
>
> 3.  There are no alternative energy solutions of sufficient size that 
> we could turn to today to completely remove our dependence upon fossil 
> fuels, except nuclear (which the same people that are telling us to 
> get off of fossil fuels are throwing bureaucratic roadblocks in the 
> way of).
>
> 4.  There is no way that we could nix fossil fuel use within 20 years, 
> maybe even 50, even if we had the will to do it.
>
> 5.  Using fossil fuels produced in politically insane countries that 
> are politically our enemies is unwise.
>
> 6.  Given all the above, it would be better (in my opinion) to switch 
> our fuel usage as much as possible to local fuels or fuels from 
> politically sane countries in the short term, build up a network of 
> nuclear power plants to handle our minimum energy needs, switch over 
> to electric cars, implement a "smart" electric grid, and supplement 
> with alternative energy as needed and as they are developed.
>
> If the right incentives were given at the right times, it might be the 
> quickest way to remove our fossil fuel dependence.  Taxing everything 
> that uses fuel, which is everything of any use to anybody pretty much, 
> is economic suicide.  I'd rather that the government implement a 
> Manhattan-style project to bring up nuclear power, preferably using 
> breeder reactors and the latest technologies, and quit naively hoping 
> that if we tax the hell out of everybody they will magically find a 
> better alternative instead of just doing without and reverting to an 
> agrarian society.  Meanwhile, China and India will continue to burn 
> fossil fuels and (assuming anthropogenic global warming is as dire as 
> they say it is) we won't have the resources or ability to handle the 
> disasters as they happen.
>
> Anyway, that's my take on it.
>
> Paul
> On Sun, Jun 6, 2010 at 9:02 PM, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com 
> <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>> wrote:
>
>
>     Jesus Christ, I've been gone all fucking weekend visiting family.
>       I wasn't aware there were time pressures involved here.
>
>     If developing US oil shale would make us less dependent upon the
>     vagaries of Middle Eastern politics, then yes, I think it should
>     be developed.  Having said that, I'm not trying to push the idea
>     of just developing everything we've got in some sort of global
>     mass-ignition of all oil-stock everywhere.  I would prefer that if
>     we are going to use oil that we use our own or at least use that
>     of countries that are nominally our friends instead of our
>     enemies.  Even if we have to put up with the downsides of such
>     production locally.
>
>     I have no idea if oil from shale can compete with oil from Saudi
>     Arabia on price, though.
>
>     I'll have to beg for an extension on your Alberta Tar Sands
>     production question, since I haven't done my homework on it.  I
>     would like to say generally that people seem to want the best of
>     both worlds all the time.  They want alternative energy, but don't
>     want unsightly windmills to clutter up their view.  They want to
>     get us off of coal for energy production, but block nuclear power
>     with bureaucratic bullshit.  They want us not to be involved in
>     Middle Eastern wars with oil being the elephant in the room, but
>     they don't want to deal with the downsides that domestic
>     production would bring with it.  There is no perfect solution.
>      Just give up on that particular pipe dream.  Welcome to the real
>     world.
>
>     Am I free to go, or do you need anything else from me?
>
>     Paul
>
>     Ted Moffett wrote:
>
>         Sometimes the theme music for Vision2020 should be Charles
>         Ives' "The Unanswered Question."
>          http://www.charlesives.org/ives_essay/index.htm
>          http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6co3j_charles-ives-the-unanswered-questio_music
>          Unanswered question from previous post below:
>
>         Do you approve of development of US oil shale?
>
>         On 6/3/10, *Ted Moffett* <starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com> <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>>> wrote:
>
>            I went along with what I understood to be your basic
>         argument when
>            I asked why large scale development of the oil shale in Utah,
>            Colorado and Wyoming is not being proposed on Vision2020, to
>            expand domestic oil reserves and potential supply, given
>            realistically our economy is going to be oil dependent for
>            decades, and questionable international sources of oil.
>          This is a
>            oil resource multiple times the size of Saudi Arabia's
>         reserves.          Do you approve of development of US oil shale?
>                 Though oil from oil shale is expensive, it is only a
>         matter of
>            time before oil becomes more scarce and much more costly,
>         and then
>            oil shale may be economically profitable.  Also, developing the
>            oil shale now could be viewed as a matter of national security
>            (
>         http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/publications/Pubs-NPR/40010-373.pdf
>             ).  I received an "Off List" response from an Idaho legislator
>            about my suggestion, and they agreed that the huge amounts of
>            water required for shale development are one of the
>         problems, with
>            environmental contamination also.  They said the water laws
>         of the
>            west would need to be rewritten for oil shale development.
>                  Of course, Alberta tar sands production is also an
>         environmental
>            problem.     I thought you were defending the Alberta tar
>         sands production,
>            even with its negatives, given the necessity for access to oil
>            from friendly allies, and the reality of our oil dependence
>            continuing for decades.
>                 Are you defending the environmentally destructive
>         Alberta tar
>            sands production, or did I misunderstand?          I also
>         sourced "Plan B" from the Earth Policy Institute
>            ( /http://www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/pdf/80by2020doc.pdf/
>             ), though even if it is possible to some extent, I do not
>         think
>            it is politically likely.  Too many very powerful entrenched
>            economic interests are making a killing on the global
>         fossil fuel
>            economy.  And many people simply do not want to change how they
>            live, or even believe there is any substantial reason why they
>            should.  Anthropogenic climate warming is a hoax!
>                 I agree that next generation nuclear power should be
>         greatly
>            expanded, but again, this does not appear to be promoted to the
>            extent required to largely replace coal as the US number one
>            electrical power source.
>                 I don't realistically think these problems will be
>         addressed in a
>            timely fashion, and that as climate change, oil depletion,
>            overpopulation, environmental degradation, etc. come
>         together in a
>            perfect storm during the later decades of this century, with
>            numerous nations armed to the teeth... But for anyone who cares
>            about the next generation etc., there is no time to waste
>         to move
>            civilization off fossil fuels, to a sustainable way of
>         life, with
>            all that implies.  There is no other sane choice but to promote
>            these goals, even if the odds of success this century are
>         meager.
>                 And I don't mean a return to ox driven agriculture and
>         horse drawn
>            buggies.  One critical reason we should reduce our
>         dependence on
>            fossil fuel oil is to save them for energy needs difficult to
>            replace by alternative energy, along with all the other
>         products
>            from oil.  Powering a combine with fossil fuel oil might be
>         one of
>            those necessities, rather than wasting fossil fuel oil on a
>            horsepower fiend race car to impress the co-workers in the
>         commute
>            to work.
>                 I do not agree that addressing climate change now is
>         so costly it
>            is not in the long term economically reasonable.  The long term
>            costs of allowing climate change to accelerate by not now
>            addressing it, are greater that the costs of taking action
>         now.     Arguing that China and India won't cooperate,
>         therefore let's
>            continue contributing to a problem that is inevitable
>         anyway, is a
>            fatalistic and irresponsible approach.  If the US makes
>            substantial progress to address climate change, China and
>         India,
>            who both face dire consequences from climate change, will be
>            encouraged to also address the problem.  It is in their
>         long term
>            interest also.
>                 Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman addresses how we
>         can afford
>            to address climate change in this analysis at the website
>         below:
>                
>         http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html
>            -----------------------
>            The Stern Report on the economics of climate change is one
>         of the
>            most often referenced reports arguing that taking action now is
>            less costly than allowing climate change to accelerate.
>          Below is
>            a reference to the Stern Report, followed by a critical
>         academic
>            analysis that finds merit and fault:
>                
>         http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm
>                
>         http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/JELSternReport.pdf
>            ------------------------------------------
>            Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
>                 On 6/2/10, *Paul Rumelhart* <godshatter at yahoo.com
>         <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>
>            <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com
>         <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>>> wrote:
>
>
>                You don't like my plan.  *sniff*
>
>                Well then, what would you suggest?
>
>                Paul
>
>                Ted Moffett wrote:
>
>                    I suppose the analysis, "Plan B," at the website below,
>                    from the Earth Policy Institute, is not worth reading,
>                    compared to the "critique" you praise, given that you
>                    "don't think anyone has said it better?"
>                    
>         http://www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/pdf/80by2020doc.pdf
>                     To more fully flesh out the tax issue regarding fossil
>                    fuels:  "Taxing everything that uses fuel... is
>         economic
>                    suicide" the no one has said it better critique states.
>                     */Yet the Earth Policy Institute analysis I reference
>                    advocates what is regarded by prominent economists as a
>                    reasonable economic policy to assist the transition
>         away
>                    from fossil fuels to other energy sources, "tax
>                    shifting./*"   Income taxes, for example, are
>         lowered, to
>                    offset taxes on fossil fuel emissions.  The tax
>         burden on
>                    the consumer and the tax revenues to the government can
>                    remain stable.  The full economic implications
>         require a
>                    professional economic analysis, beyond the scope of
>         this post.
>                     But to make broad and hyperbolic statements about
>                    "economic suicide" from taxing fossil fuels is to not
>                    address the complexities of some of the proposals
>         on this
>                    issue from professional economists.  There are several
>                    other oversimplifications, misrepresentations and
>         logical
>                    errors that should be addressed.  But this thread once
>                    again so far is just restating from the same
>         participants
>                    the same positions in general terms that have been
>         parsed
>                    over and over on Vision2020.  I'll offer a proposal for
>                    fossil fuel oil domestic security that I do not recall
>                    being advocated often, if ever, on Vision2020.
>                     The argument is that we cannot "realistically"
>         lessen our
>                    dependence on fossil fuel oil soon enough to avoid
>         these
>                    more environmentally damaging developments, such as the
>                    Alberta tar sands.
>                     */Therefore, given this logic, why not open the
>         oil shale
>                    in Utah, Colorado and Wyoming to full scale
>         development?
>                     This is the largest fossil fuel oil deposit in the
>         US, by
>                    far.  Why is there no advocacy for this from those
>         arguing
>                    on Vision2020 for the saneness of the Alberta tar sands
>                    development?   Would they rather Canada shoulder the
>                    environmental damage, rather than the US, if we
>         developed
>                    our domestic oil shale?/*  I understand from my reading
>                    that one of the problems with shale development is the
>                    huge amount of water required.  But for those who are
>                    "realistic" about our needs for fossil fuel oil, they
>                    won't object to Idaho's water resources being
>         diverted to
>                    Wyoming for shale development, assuming this is
>         feasible,
>                    correct?  The most "commercially attractive" oil
>         shale are
>                    mostly on federal land (read "Oil Shale and Tar Sands
>                    Program EIS" info at website below).  But if we can
>         stop
>                    those big government regulators and bureaucrats and
>                    environmentalists, who might block development, the
>         free
>                    market can work it's magic for domestic oil security.
>                     Info on the immense US oil shale at websites
>         below, with
>                    arguments that this resource can be "realistically"
>         developed:
>                     From "Oil and Gas Journal":
>                    
>         http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/publications/Pubs-NPR/40010-373.pdf
>                     From "Oil Shale and Tar Sands Program EIS":
>
>                    http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/oilshale/
>                     Domestic fossil fuel oil, more than Saudi Arabia!
>          After
>                    all, let's be "realistic."
>                    ------------------------------------------
>                    Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>                     On 6/2/10, *lfalen* <lfalen at turbonet.com
>         <mailto:lfalen at turbonet.com>
>                    <mailto:lfalen at turbonet.com
>         <mailto:lfalen at turbonet.com>> <mailto:lfalen at turbonet.com
>         <mailto:lfalen at turbonet.com>
>
>                    <mailto:lfalen at turbonet.com
>         <mailto:lfalen at turbonet.com>>>> wrote:
>
>                       Paul
>                       An excellent critique. I don't think anyone has
>         said it
>                    better.
>                       Roger
>                       -----Original message-----
>                       From: Paul Rumelhart godshatter at yahoo.com
>         <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>
>                    <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com
>         <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>>
>                       <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com
>         <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com> <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com
>         <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>>>
>                       Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2010 13:34:48 -0700
>                       To: "nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>
>                    <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>>
>                    <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>
>                    <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>>>"
>                       nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>
>                    <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>>
>                    <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>
>
>                    <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com
>         <mailto:nickgier at roadrunner.com>>>, Ted
>                       Moffett starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>
>                    <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>> <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>
>
>                    <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>>>
>                       Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Alberta's Tar Sands
>         and Idaho's
>                       Wilderness Gateway
>
>                       >
>                       >
>                       > --- On Tue, 6/1/10, Ted Moffett
>         <starbliss at gmail.com <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>
>                    <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>>
>                       <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>
>
>                    <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com
>         <mailto:starbliss at gmail.com>>>> wrote:
>                       > Some argue that it is a matter of national
>         security
>                    and economic
>                       necessity to develop and gain access to this
>         huge oil
>                    resource
>                       that can reduce oil dependence on other foreign oil
>                    sources, while
>                       we work on alternative energy sources.  But this is
>                    short sighted,
>                       given that climate change is a national security and
>                    planetary
>                       wide risk that is increased with continued
>         greenhouse gas
>                       emissions, while time is running out to prevent
>         climate
>                    change
>                       tipping points that will be difficult to stop.
>                       >
>                       > I wouldn't call it "short sighted", I'd call it
>                    "realistic".
>                       >
>                       > Here's how my logic goes:
>                       >
>                       > 1.  We need power.  We need it for a lot of
>                       things.  Transportation of goods, heating and
>         cooling,
>                    powering
>                       factories, running our financial systems, gathering
>                    resources,
>                       military defense, etc.
>                       >
>                       > 2.  It would be better, for a lot of reasons,
>         if we
>                    weren't
>                       dependent upon fossil fuel use.
>                       >
>                       > 3.  There are no alternative energy solutions of
>                    sufficient size
>                       that we could turn to today to completely remove our
>                    dependence
>                       upon fossil fuels, except nuclear (which the same
>                    people that are
>                       telling us to get off of fossil fuels are throwing
>                    bureaucratic
>                       roadblocks in the way of).
>                       >
>                       > 4.  There is no way that we could nix fossil
>         fuel use
>                    within 20
>                       years, maybe even 50, even if we had the will to
>         do it.
>                       >
>                       > 5.  Using fossil fuels produced in politically
>         insane
>                    countries
>                       that are politically our enemies is unwise.
>                       >
>                       > 6.  Given all the above, it would be better (in my
>                    opinion) to
>                       switch our fuel usage as much as possible to local
>                    fuels or fuels
>                       from politically sane countries in the short term,
>                    build up a
>                       network of nuclear power plants to handle our
>         minimum
>                    energy
>                       needs, switch over to electric cars, implement a
>                    "smart" electric
>                       grid, and supplement with alternative energy as
>         needed
>                    and as they
>                       are developed.
>                       >
>                       > If the right incentives were given at the right
>                    times, it might
>                       be the quickest way to remove our fossil fuel
>                    dependence.  Taxing
>                       everything that uses fuel, which is everything
>         of any
>                    use to
>                       anybody pretty much, is economic suicide.  I'd
>         rather
>                    that the
>                       government implement a Manhattan-style project
>         to bring
>                    up nuclear
>                       power, preferably using breeder reactors and the
>         latest
>                       technologies, and quit naively hoping that if we tax
>                    the hell out
>                       of everybody they will magically find a better
>                    alternative instead
>                       of just doing without and reverting to an agrarian
>                       society.  Meanwhile, China and India will
>         continue to
>                    burn fossil
>                       fuels and (assuming anthropogenic global warming
>         is as
>                    dire as
>                       they say it is) we won't have the resources or
>         ability
>                    to handle
>                       the disasters as they happen.
>                       >
>                       > Anyway, that's my take on it.
>                       >
>                       > Paul
>                       >
>                       >
>                       >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>




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