[Vision2020] Keep up the good work, Ted!

Ted Moffett starbliss at gmail.com
Thu Jul 29 17:34:31 PDT 2010


There's not much to what I am doing, really; just trying to follow important
developments in climate science, and communicate them.  I'm probably boring
the heck out of people who would rather not focus their time on
anthropogenic climate warming... assuming many of my posts on this subject
are even opened...

As far as significant new developments in climate data, one important
development is the finding by the Goddard Institute of Space Studies that a
new record warm 12 month running mean global average temperature was set in
2010 (this is not a calendar year 12 month period) for the period of
instrumental data, which GISS starts in 1880, if I have my facts straight.
The following paper has not been published, I think, and GISS is accepting
critical feedback in anticipation of publishing:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/paper/gistemp2010_draft0601.pdf

A summary discussion of this paper is at this website, where they indicate
it is in the review period:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100601_TemperaturePaper.pdf

I have so far perceived scant attention to this work by GISS, or the
National Climatic Data Center findings that the first six months of the
calendar year 2010 have set a new record high global average temperature for
this six month period, in major media, newspapers, or CNN, MSNBC, FOX  etc.
though I have not systematically surveyed media.

NCDC info on record warm Jan-June 2010:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100715_globalstats.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2010&month=6&submitted=Get+Report
As far as the Arctic sea ice decline this season, whether it sets a new
record low sea ice extent or not is not especially significant, given that
according to the source at the website below, the Arctic sea ice volume
already reached new record lows in 2010, and that the September low of 2009
was a record low sea ice volume.  Again, where was the major media coverage
of this important climate science?  You might have read this post on this
finding already, but the post can be read at the website below:

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-July/070983.html
On Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 3:09 PM, Gier, Nicholas <NGIER at uidaho.edu> wrote:

>  Hi Ted,
>
> I just wanted you to know that I'm saving every one of your posts on
> climate change in preparation for a column with the provisional title
> "Update on Climate Change."  I'm going to wait until the data is in on
> Arctic ice.
>
> Keep up the good work!
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas F. Gier, Professor Emeritus
> Department of Philosophy, University of Idaho
> President, Idaho Federation of Teachers, AFT/AFL-CIO
> www.idaho-aft.org/ift.htm
> 208-882-9212, 1037 Colt Rd., Moscow, ID 83843
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: vision2020-bounces at moscow.com on behalf of Ted Moffett
> Sent: Thu 7/29/2010 11:05 AM
> To: Moscow Vision 2020
> Subject: [Vision2020] July 28,2010: NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record
> According to Scientistsin 48 Countries
>
> http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
>
> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/
>
> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php
>  NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48
> Countries Earth
> has been growing warmer for more than fifty years
>
> July 28, 2010
>
> The 2009 *State of the Climate* report released today draws on data for 10
> key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific
> evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300
> scientists
> from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which
> confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth
> has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.
>
> Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10
> measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes.
> The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a
> warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land,
> sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean
> heat,
> humidity and tropospheric temperature in the "active-weather" layer of the
> atmosphere closest to the Earth's surface. Three indicators are declining:
> Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.
>
> "For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis
> brings together multiple observational records from the top of the
> atmosphere to the depths of the ocean," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under
> secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
> "The
> records come from many institutions worldwide. They use data collected from
> diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations,
> ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of
> evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming,"
>
> The report emphasizes that human society has developed for thousands of
> years under one climatic state, and now a new set of climatic conditions
> are
> taking shape. These conditions are consistently warmer, and some areas are
> likely to see more extreme events like severe drought, torrential rain and
> violent storms.
>
> "Despite the variability caused by short-term changes, the analysis
> conducted for this report illustrates why we are so confident the world is
> warming," said Peter Stott, Ph.D., contributor to the report and head of
> Climate Monitoring and Attribution of the United Kingdom Met Office Hadley
> Centre. "When we look at air temperature and other indicators of climate,
> we
> see highs and lows in the data from year to year because of natural
> variability. Understanding climate change requires looking at the
> longer-term record. When we follow decade-to-decade trends using multiple
> data sets and independent analyses from around the world, we see clear and
> unmistakable signs of a warming world."
>
> While year-to-year changes in temperature often reflect natural climatic
> variations such as El Niño/La Niña events, changes in average temperature
> from decade-to-decade reveal long-term trends such as global warming. Each
> of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before. At
> the time, the 1980s was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every
> year was warmer than the average of the previous decade. The 2000s were
> warmer still.
>
> "The temperature increase of one degree Fahrenheit over the past 50 years
> may seem small, but it has already altered our planet," said Deke Arndt,
> co-editor of the report and chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch of
> NOAA's
> National Climatic Data Center. "Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy
> rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common. And, as the new
> report tells us, there is now evidence that over 90 percent of warming over
> the past 50 years has gone into our ocean."
>
> More and more, Americans are witnessing the impacts of climate change in
> their own backyards, including sea-level rise, longer growing seasons,
> changes in river flows, increases in heavy downpours, earlier snowmelt and
> extended ice-free seasons in our waters. People are searching for relevant
> and timely information about these changes to inform decision-making about
> virtually all aspects of their lives. To help keep citizens and businesses
> informed about climate, NOAA created the Climate Portal at *
> http://www.climate.gov* <http://www.climate.gov/>. The portal features a
> short video <http://www.climate.gov/#understandingClimate> that summarizes
> some of the highlights of the State of the Climate Report.
>
> *State of the Climate* is published as a special supplement to the Bulletin
> of the American Meteorological Society and is edited by D.S. Arndt, M.O.
> Baringer, and M.R. Johnson. The full report and an online media packet with
> graphics is available online: *
> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate*<
> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate>
> .
>
> ------------------------------------------
>
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
>
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