[Vision2020] 1/28/10: "Science" journal: "Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming"

[Ted Moffett]

The "deep solar minimum," "...the quietest sun we've seen in almost a
century," according to sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space
Flight Center, might also be slowing the temperature forcing of increasing
levels of anthropogenic sourced atmospheric greenhouse gases, yet global
temperatures remained well above the 20th century average, in 2009:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global
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http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100128_watervapor.html

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/science.1182488


Published Online January 28, 2010
*Science* DOI: 10.1126/science.1182488
 *Science* Express Index<http://www.sciencemag.org/sciencexpress/recent.dtl>
Research Articles
Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of
Global Warming*Susan Solomon,1 Karen Rosenlof,1 Robert Portmann,1 John
Daniel,1 Sean Davis,1,2 Todd Sanford,1,2 Gian-Kasper Plattner3 *

Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the
year 2000. Here, we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in
global surface temperature over 2000 to 2009 by about 25% compared to that
which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor
probably increased
between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface
warming during the 1990s by about 30% compared to estimates neglecting this
change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor represents an
important driver of decadal global surface climate change.

1 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division,
Boulder, CO, USA.
2 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University
of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
3 Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern,
Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

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Received for publication 25 September 2009. Accepted for publication 12
January 2010.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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