[Vision2020] US temperature station trends

[Ted Moffett]

The full post that is excerpted below is at this website:

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-August/071252.html

On 8/16/10, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com> wrote:


> Vision2020 peeps that haven't been turned off by the perennial global
> warming debate,
> -------------------
>
> Any thoughts?
>
> Paul


Below read about Goddard Institute of Space Studies findings that 2010 set a
new 12 month running mean global average temperature record high, among
other findings:

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-August/071166.html
------------------------------
"Turned off" will be an understatement in 50-100 years when extreme
weather/climate events such as the devastating 2010 record setting flooding
in Pakistan, now displacing millions of people (
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/7935485/Pakistan-floods-disaster-is-the-worst-in-the-UNs-history.html
 ),
and the record setting heat wave in Russia (
http://www.democracynow.org/2010/8/10/meterologist_record_heat_wave_in_russia
), with
the resulting devastating fires (
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=45046 ), are
much more common and widespread across our planet, if we do not act quickly
and aggressively to limit human impacts on climate.  But there is not much
discussion of this planetary emergency on this list.  So even if you present
a more skeptical view of this problem, at least you are engaged, for
whatever reason(s).

Thanks.

Below read an abundance of "thoughts" from the Union of Concerned Scientists
that indicate there is largely now no "perennial global warming debate"
among currently publishing climate scientists on the basic question of
whether human impacts are profoundly altering Earth's climate:

http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/climate-change/scientific-consensus-on.html
Scientific Consensus on Global Warming

In the past few years, scientific societies and scientists have released
statements and studies showing the growing consensus on climate change
science. A common objection to taking action to reduce our heat-trapping
emissions has been uncertainty within the scientific community on whether or
not global warming is happening and whether it is caused by humans. However,
there is now an overwhelming scientific consensus that global warming is
indeed happening and humans are contributing to it. Below are links to
documents and statements attesting to this consensus.

*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change*

   - *Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis<http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html>,
   *IPCC, 2007. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
   Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D.
   Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller
   (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
   NY, USA.

   “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
   observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
   widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level”

   “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the
   mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
   anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

   IPCC defines "very likely" as greater than 90% probability of occurrence.



 *Scientific Societies*

   -

   *Statement on climate
change*<http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/ssi/climate-change-statement-from.pdf>
   * from 18 scientific associations

   *"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is
   occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse
   gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (October, 2009)
   -

   *American Meteorological Society:* Climate Change: An Information
   Statement of the American Meteorological
Society<http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2007climatechange.pdf>

   "Indeed, strong observational evidence and results from modeling studies
   indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major
   contributor to climate change." (February 2007)
   -

   *American Physical Society*: Statement on Climate
Change<http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/ssi/american-physical-society.pdf>

   "The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no
   mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s
   physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health
   are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning
   now." (November 2007)
   -

   *American Geophysical Union*: Human Impacts on
Climate<http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/positions/climate_change2008.shtml>

   "The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many
   components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the
   atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the
   sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are
   now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best
   explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and
   aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century." (Adopted
   December 2003, Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007)
   -

   *American Association for the Advancement of Science: *AAAS Board
   Statement on Climate
Change<http://www.aaas.org/news/press_room/climate_change/mtg_200702/aaas_climate_statement.pdf>

   "The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human
   activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society."
   (December 2006)
   -

   *Geological Society of America*: Global Climate
Change<http://www.geosociety.org/positions/position10.htm>

   "The Geological Society of America (GSA) supports the scientific
   conclusions that Earth’s climate is changing; the climate changes are due in
   part to human activities; and the probable consequences of the climate
   changes will be significant and blind to geopolitical boundaries."  (October
   2006)
   -

   *American Chemical Society*: Statement on Global Climate
Change<http://portal.acs.org/portal/acs/corg/content?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=PP_SUPERARTICLE&node_id=1907&use_sec=false&sec_url_var=region1>

   "There is now general agreement among scientific experts that the recent
   warming trend is real (and particularly strong within the past 20 years),
   that most of the observed warming is likely due to increased atmospheric
   greenhouse gas concentrations, and that climate change could have serious
   adverse effects by the end of this century." (July 2004)

*National Science Academies
*

   -

   *U.S. National Academy of Sciences*: Understanding and Responding to
   Climate Change<http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/climate-change-final.pdf>
    (pdf)

   "The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear
   to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the
   atmosphere." (2005)
   -

   *International academies: *Joint science academies’ statement: Global
   response to climate
change<http://www.academie-sciences.fr/actualites/textes/G8_gb.pdf>
    (pdf)

   "Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in
   understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is
   now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring." (2005, 11
   national academies of science)
   -

   *International academies*: The Science of Climate
Change<http://www.royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id=6206>


   "Despite increasing consensus on the science underpinning predictions of
   global climate change, doubts have been expressed recently about the need to
   mitigate the risks posed by global climate change. We do not consider such
   doubts justified." (2001, 16 national academies of science)

*Research*

   - Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate
Change<http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/ssi/DoranEOS09.pdf>,
   Peter T. Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman

   "It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the
   role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who
   understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes."

   Doran surveyed 10,257 Earth scientists. Thirty percent responded to the
   survey which asked: 1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think
   that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained
   relatively constant? and 2. Do you think human activity is a significant
   contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?
   - Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate
Change<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686>,
   Naomi Oreskes

   "Oreskes analyzed 928 abstracts published in refereed scientific journals
   between 1993 and 2003 and listed in the ISI database with the keywords
   'climate change.'... Of all the papers, 75 percent either explicitly or
   implicitly accepted the consensus view that global warming is happening and
   humans are contributing to it; 25 percent dealt with methods or ancient
   climates, taking no position on current anthropogenic [human-caused] climate
   change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus
   position."



*UCS Sign-on Statements*

   - U.S. Scientists and Economists' Call for Swift and Deep Cuts in
   Greenhouse Gas
Emissions<http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/big_picture_solutions/scientists-and-economists.html>

   "We call on our nation's leaders to swiftly establish and implement
   policies to bring about deep reductions in heat-trapping emissions. The
   strength of the science on climate change compels us to warn the nation
   about the growing risk of irreversible consequences as global average
   temperatures continue to increase over pre-industrial levels (i.e. prior to
   1860). As temperatures rise further, the scope and severity of global
   warming impacts will continue to accelerate." (2008)
   - Increase Your Leadership on Global Warming: A Letter from California
   Scientists<http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/california-scientists-issue-global-warming-warning.html>

   "If emissions continue unabated, the serious consequences of a changing
   climate for California are likely to include a striking increase in extreme
   heat and heat-related mortality, significant reductions in Sierra snowpack
   with severe impacts on water supply, mounting challenges to agricultural
   production, and sea-level rise leading to more widespread erosion of
   California’s beaches and coastline." (2005)

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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