[Vision2020] Judge OKs same-sex marriage in California

[Ted Moffett]

This takes the theatre out of it...  I was hoping for a same sex marriage
legal showdown in the US Supreme Court, risky but full of drama.  So perhaps
you can answer this question:  Can another Proposition, like Proposition
8, be placed before the voters of California, to nullify Judge Walker's
decision, or does his decision negate this possibility?  I suspect another
Proposition 8 effort in California is not legally sound...

On 8/14/10, Andreas Schou <ophite at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Ted --
>
> My suspicion is that it's unlikely to end up in the Supreme Court.
> Article III allows only actual cases or controversies to come before
> the court. California, the defendant, has declined to appeal the
> ruling. Absent some sort of real, defined harm, here's no precedent
> which would allow the proponent of a ballot measure to step into the
> state's shoes and continue on with an appeal. There's actually a good
> deal of contrary precedent.
>
> I seriously doubt NOM's ability to find a representative plaintiff
> who's been "harmed," in any real sense, by gay marriage. Consequently,
> I suspect the decision will have to wait for the next gay marriage ban
> to fall, and for the state to intentionally carry it to the Supreme
> Court.
>
> -- ACS
>
> On Thu, Aug 12, 2010 at 3:40 PM, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
> > This is likely to end up in the SCOTUS, and Justice Kennedy likely to be
> the
> > deciding vote.  But if Justice Ginsberg, the oldest SCOTUS member, steps
> > down, her replacement could be a factor.  Consider thiese quotes from the
> > article below:
> >
> > "Kennedy's name appears nowhere in a trial judge's 138-page opinion
> issued
> > Wednesday striking down California's Proposition 8 ban on gay marriages.
> > Nonetheless, Kennedy's previous decisions were cited 16 times in U.S.
> > District Judge Vaughn Walker's ruling that Proposition 8 violates the
> > Constitution.
> >
> > Walker's citations to Kennedy foreshadow the highly anticipated showdown
> > that's to come when the Supreme Court finally considers gay marriage."
> >
> > And:
> >
> > "Kennedy's opinion "dismantles the structure of constitutional law that
> has
> > permitted a distinction to be made between heterosexual and homosexual
> > unions, insofar as formal recognition in marriage is concerned," Justice
> > Antonin Scalia wrote in a 2003 dissent."
> >
> >
> http://www.statesman.com/news/nation/justice-kennedys-the-one-to-watch-on-gay-847477.html
> >
> > From website above:
> >
> > Justice Kennedy's the one to watch on gay marriage
> >
> > California's recently overturned ban on same-sex marriages likely to go
> to a
> > sharply divided Supreme Court.
> >
> > By Michael Doyle
> >
> > MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS
> >
> > Published: 8:08 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 7, 2010
> >
> > WASHINGTON — Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy appears likely to
> > eventually tackle California's gay marriage ban and his role could be
> > crucial.
> >
> > Kennedy's name appears nowhere in a trial judge's 138-page opinion issued
> > Wednesday striking down California's Proposition 8 ban on gay marriages.
> > Nonetheless, Kennedy's previous decisions were cited 16 times in U.S.
> > District Judge Vaughn Walker's ruling that Proposition 8 violates the
> > Constitution.
> >
> > Walker's citations to Kennedy foreshadow the highly anticipated showdown
> > that's to come when the Supreme Court finally considers gay marriage.
> >
> > Four conservative justices on the Supreme Court are widely considered to
> be
> > unlikely to support a decision recognizing a constitutional right of gays
> to
> > marry.
> >
> > Four others, including newly sworn-in Justice Elena Kagan, seem more
> likely
> > to agree with Walker that the Constitution doesn't allow states to treat
> gay
> > couples differently from heterosexual ones, analysts said.
> >
> > The deciding vote, most analysts agree, likely will belong to Kennedy.
> >
> > "It seems the issue will clearly be close, and on close cases (Kennedy)
> > tends to be in the middle," said Carl Tobias, a University of Richmond
> law
> > professor.
> >
> > Kennedy wrote gay-friendly opinions in a 1996 case striking down a
> Colorado
> > ballot measure and a 2003 case striking down a Texas law that banned gay
> > sodomy.
> >
> > Kennedy hasn't tipped his hand on gay marriage, stressing that the 2003
> > Texas decision "does not involve whether the government must give formal
> > recognition to any relationship that homosexual persons seek to enter."
> >
> > However, some hope — and some fear — that Kennedy's sympathies are
> already
> > clear.
> >
> > Kennedy's opinion "dismantles the structure of constitutional law that
> has
> > permitted a distinction to be made between heterosexual and homosexual
> > unions, insofar as formal recognition in marriage is concerned," Justice
> > Antonin Scalia wrote in a 2003 dissent.
> >
> > The Supreme Court could look different by the time the gay marriage case
> > arrives, though. Some intervening steps, not all of them predictable,
> also
> > may shape the case's outcome.
> >
> > A randomly selected three-judge panel of the San Francisco-based 9th U.S.
> > Circuit Court of Appeals will review Walker's decision first. Eleven of
> the
> > 9th Circuit judges then could review the appellate panel's work, in turn,
> in
> > what's called an en banc decision.
> >
> > The appellate reasoning and the resulting posture of the case could nudge
> > justices one way or another, though the Supreme Court never hesitates to
> > show who's boss. During the past two years, the Supreme Court reversed
> 9th
> > Circuit decisions in 22 out of 31 cases.
> >
> > The 9th Circuit's briefing schedule released Thursday calls for all
> briefs
> > to be submitted by late December. Oral arguments will come later.
> >
> > Because the Supreme Court typically finishes setting its docket in
> > mid-January, this means there won't be time to hear any appeal before the
> > term ends next June.
> >
> > "We're talking the 2011 term," Tobias said.
> >
> > By 2011, there might be new Supreme Court justices whose views will shape
> > the outcome.
> >
> > The court's oldest member now is 77-year-old Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg,
> > who has battled cancer several times. Although she hasn't hinted at
> > retiring, her departure during President Barack Obama's term could affect
> > the gay marriage case.
> >
> > For instance: If Democrats lose some Senate seats this November, as
> appears
> > likely, their weaker grip on the Senate could make Obama more likely to
> pick
> > a moderate replacement for the Supreme Court rather than an avowed
> liberal.
> >
> > Still, for the foreseeable future, Kennedy is likely to be the go-to
> > justice.
> >
> > During the court's 2009-10 term, Kennedy was in the majority 82 percent
> of
> > the time, according to a tally by the nonpartisan SCOTUSblog.com. This
> was
> > more than any other justice. Kennedy has a tradition of being part of the
> > court's winning 5-4 majority more than any other justice, though he
> wasn't
> > in the previous term.
> >
> > Additional material from the Los Angeles Times.
> >
> > -------------------------------------------
> >
> > Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
> >
> > On Thu, Aug 12, 2010 at 1:33 PM, Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> Courtesy of CNN at:
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/08/12/california.same.sex.ruling/index.html?hpt=T2
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Judge gives the green light for same-sex marriage in California
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Los Angeles, California (CNN) -- A federal judge ruled on Thursday to
> >> allow same-sex couples to marry in California, starting on August 18,
> >> handing another big victory to supporters of gay rights in a case that
> both
> >> sides say will likely end up in the U.S. Supreme Court.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Last week, Chief U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker in San Francisco
> struck
> >> down the state's ban on same-sex marriage, ruling that voter-approved
> >> Proposition 8 violates the U.S. Constitution. Walker had issued a
> temporary
> >> stay on his decision, which on Thursday he said he would lift.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> The high-profile case is being watched closely by supporters and
> opponents
> >> of same-sex marriage, as many say it will make its way to the U.S.
> Supreme
> >> Court. If it does, the case could result in a landmark decision on
> whether
> >> people in the United States are allowed to marry people of the same sex.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Same-sex marriage is legal in five U.S. states and in the District of
> >> Columbia, while civil unions are permitted in New Jersey. The five
> states
> >> are Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Iowa and New Hampshire.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Seeya round town, Moscow.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Tom Hansen
> >>
> >> Moscow, Idaho
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> "If I wanted to overhear every tedious scrap of brain static rattling
> >> around in your head, I'd read your blog."
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> - Bill Maher
> >>
> >>
> >
>
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