[Vision2020] Judge OKs same-sex marriage in California

[Ted Moffett]

This is likely to end up in the SCOTUS, and Justice Kennedy likely to be the
deciding vote.  But if Justice Ginsberg, the oldest SCOTUS member, steps
down, her replacement could be a factor.  Consider thiese quotes from the
article below:

"Kennedy's name appears nowhere in a trial judge's 138-page opinion issued
Wednesday striking down California's Proposition 8 ban on gay marriages.
Nonetheless, Kennedy's previous decisions were cited 16 times in U.S.
District Judge Vaughn Walker's ruling that Proposition 8 violates the
Constitution.

Walker's citations to Kennedy foreshadow the highly anticipated showdown
that's to come when the Supreme Court finally considers gay marriage."

And:

"Kennedy's opinion "dismantles the structure of constitutional law that has
permitted a distinction to be made between heterosexual and homosexual
unions, insofar as formal recognition in marriage is concerned," Justice
Antonin Scalia wrote in a 2003 dissent."

http://www.statesman.com/news/nation/justice-kennedys-the-one-to-watch-on-gay-847477.html

>From website above:
 Justice Kennedy's the one to watch on gay marriage California's recently
overturned ban on same-sex marriages likely to go to a sharply divided
Supreme Court.
By* Michael Doyle *

MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS

Published: 8:08 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 7, 2010

WASHINGTON — Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy appears likely to
eventually tackle California's gay marriage ban and his role could be
crucial.

Kennedy's name appears nowhere in a trial judge's 138-page opinion issued
Wednesday striking down California's Proposition 8 ban on gay marriages.
Nonetheless, Kennedy's previous decisions were cited 16 times in U.S.
District Judge Vaughn Walker's ruling that Proposition 8 violates the
Constitution.

Walker's citations to Kennedy foreshadow the highly anticipated showdown
that's to come when the Supreme Court finally considers gay marriage.

Four conservative justices on the Supreme Court are widely considered to be
unlikely to support a decision recognizing a constitutional right of gays to
marry.

Four others, including newly sworn-in Justice Elena Kagan, seem more likely
to agree with Walker that the Constitution doesn't allow states to treat gay
couples differently from heterosexual ones, analysts said.

The deciding vote, most analysts agree, likely will belong to Kennedy.

"It seems the issue will clearly be close, and on close cases (Kennedy)
tends to be in the middle," said Carl Tobias, a University of Richmond law
professor.

Kennedy wrote gay-friendly opinions in a 1996 case striking down a Colorado
ballot measure and a 2003 case striking down a Texas law that banned gay
sodomy.

Kennedy hasn't tipped his hand on gay marriage, stressing that the 2003
Texas decision "does not involve whether the government must give formal
recognition to any relationship that homosexual persons seek to enter."

However, some hope — and some fear — that Kennedy's sympathies are already
clear.

Kennedy's opinion "dismantles the structure of constitutional law that has
permitted a distinction to be made between heterosexual and homosexual
unions, insofar as formal recognition in marriage is concerned," Justice
Antonin Scalia wrote in a 2003 dissent.

The Supreme Court could look different by the time the gay marriage case
arrives, though. Some intervening steps, not all of them predictable, also
may shape the case's outcome.

A randomly selected three-judge panel of the San Francisco-based 9th U.S.
Circuit Court of Appeals will review Walker's decision first. Eleven of the
9th Circuit judges then could review the appellate panel's work, in turn, in
what's called an en banc decision.

The appellate reasoning and the resulting posture of the case could nudge
justices one way or another, though the Supreme Court never hesitates to
show who's boss. During the past two years, the Supreme Court reversed 9th
Circuit decisions in 22 out of 31 cases.

The 9th Circuit's briefing schedule released Thursday calls for all briefs
to be submitted by late December. Oral arguments will come later.

Because the Supreme Court typically finishes setting its docket in
mid-January, this means there won't be time to hear any appeal before the
term ends next June.

"We're talking the 2011 term," Tobias said.

By 2011, there might be new Supreme Court justices whose views will shape
the outcome.

The court's oldest member now is 77-year-old Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg,
who has battled cancer several times. Although she hasn't hinted at
retiring, her departure during President Barack Obama's term could affect
the gay marriage case.

For instance: If Democrats lose some Senate seats this November, as appears
likely, their weaker grip on the Senate could make Obama more likely to pick
a moderate replacement for the Supreme Court rather than an avowed liberal.

Still, for the foreseeable future, Kennedy is likely to be the go-to
justice.

During the court's 2009-10 term, Kennedy was in the majority 82 percent of
the time, according to a tally by the nonpartisan SCOTUSblog.com. This was
more than any other justice. Kennedy has a tradition of being part of the
court's winning 5-4 majority more than any other justice, though he wasn't
in the previous term.

Additional material from the Los Angeles Times.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
On Thu, Aug 12, 2010 at 1:33 PM, Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com> wrote:

>  Courtesy of CNN at:
>
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> http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/08/12/california.same.sex.ruling/index.html?hpt=T2
>
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> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> Judge gives the green light for same-sex marriage in California
>
>
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> Los Angeles, California (CNN) -- A federal judge ruled on Thursday to allow
> same-sex couples to marry in California, starting on August 18, handing
> another big victory to supporters of gay rights in a case that both sides
> say will likely end up in the U.S. Supreme Court.
>
>
>
> Last week, Chief U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker in San Francisco struck
> down the state's ban on same-sex marriage, ruling that voter-approved
> Proposition 8 violates the U.S. Constitution. Walker had issued a temporary
> stay on his decision, which on Thursday he said he would lift.
>
>
>
> The high-profile case is being watched closely by supporters and opponents
> of same-sex marriage, as many say it will make its way to the U.S. Supreme
> Court. If it does, the case could result in a landmark decision on whether
> people in the United States are allowed to marry people of the same sex.
>
>
>
> Same-sex marriage is legal in five U.S. states and in the District of
> Columbia, while civil unions are permitted in New Jersey. The five states
> are Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Iowa and New Hampshire.
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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>
> Seeya round town, Moscow.
>
>
>
> Tom Hansen
>
> Moscow, Idaho
>
>
>
> "If I wanted to overhear every tedious scrap of brain static rattling
> around in your head, I'd read your blog."
>
>
>
> - Bill Maher
>
>
>
>
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