[Vision2020] Climate Talks (Bonn, Germany Aug. 2-6) in Danger of Unravelling as China and US Clash

[Ted Moffett]

Given scientific probabilities for average global temperature increases with
realistic scenarios for mitigation of human impacts on Earth's climate (read
MIT study on this issue here:
http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Rpt169.pdf ), the
following quote from the article below indicates a mindset living in a
fantasy world, unless extreme geo-engineering of climate is attempted to
lower temperature, with costs and impacts of great uncertainty.  What is
needed is what the Earth Policy Institute advocates (read here:
http://www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/pdf/80by2020notes.pdf ), 80 percent
reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, which I think is
impossible given economic and political realities.  Consider the recent
proposal for the City of Moscow to reduce emissions 20 percent by 2020 (read
here:
http://dailyme.com/story/2010072700001553/smelly-moscow-city-considers-making-cats.html
),
like putting a band aid on a hemorrhaging artery;  the patient will still
bleed to death, it just might take a few seconds longer:
"Nearly half the countries in the world – 107– are committed to holding
temperature rises to no more than 1.5C rather than the 2C which the EU, US
and rich countries prefer."
--------------
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/06/climate-talks-us-china-clash
 Climate
talks in danger of unravelling as China and US clash

Environmentalists fear Copenhagen deal could fall apart over backsliding and
changes to demands

   - *John Vidal* <http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/johnvidal>
   - guardian.co.uk <http://www.guardian.co.uk/>, Friday 6 August 2010 18.53
   BST

 Global climate talks have sunk to a new low after
China<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/china>and the US clashed and
rich countries lined up against poor in a refusal to
compromise on emission reduction targets.

With just six days' negotiating time left before a critical meeting in
Cancun, Mexico, some diplomats fear that the fragile deal struck in
Copenhagen last December could unravel.

Rather than slim down the negotiating text to allow politicians to make
choices at Cancun, the US, China and many developing countries all added
pages to draft texts in a series of tit-for-tat moves that critics said had
sent the talks backwards after a week of meetings.

"Events outside [such as the Russian
heatwave<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/05/vladimir-putin-ban-grain-exports>and
the Pakistan
floods<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/06/half-million-evacuated-pakistan-floods>]
are consistent with what we can expect from climate
change<http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change>,"
said Jonathan Pershing, the lead US negotiator at this week's meeting in
Bonn. "But I am very concerned that some countries are walking backwards in
the progress made since Copenhagen. If we continue to go down this road,
there is no hope of an agreement in Cancun. All parties are stepping back."

"We see backsliding and [making] no progress", said the Grenadian
ambassador, Decima Williams, who chairs the Aosis group of 43 small island
states in the frontline of climate change. "We are not matching actions with
the science. We have failed to respond to the evidence of climate change."

The lead EU negotiator, Peter Wittoeck, warned: "The negotiating text is
getting bigger and bigger. There is now a danger of it exploding."

But some developing countries said the text, which will be negotiated at a
final preparatory meeting in China in October, now better reflected their
positions than the Copenhagen
accord<http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/22/copenhagen-climate-deal-expert-view>
.

Nearly half the countries in the world – 107– are committed to holding
temperature rises to no more than 1.5C rather than the 2C which the EU, US
and rich countries prefer.

"Important improvements have been made", said Pablo Solon, the Bolivian
ambassador to the UN.

The US failure to put in place domestic legislation that would commit it to
reaching its target cuts was not a problem, said Pershing. "The US stands by
its commitments. We are not backing away from legislation. We have multiple
tools at our disposal" for cutting emissions.

But the US and China, the world's two largest energy users, appear to be
further apart than in December. The two clashed over whether mitigation
action by developing countries would be subject to international
verification. This issue nearly wrecked the talks in Copenhagen.

In the view of many delegates, the US appeared to be more isolated than last
year because support for the Copenhagen accord appeared to be slipping. "The
balance has shifted back to developing countries. Countries who signed up to
it are not accepting it wholesale as the US thought they would", said one
diplomat.

NGOs in Bonn berated rich countries for lack of ambition. "US negotiators
appear to have hardened their stance and other developed countries are
dragging their feet. The pledges to reduce emissions by just 12-18% are far
less than what is needed," said Asad Rehman of Friends of the Earth
International.

------------------------------------------

Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/attachments/20100807/9427ee7e/attachment.html