[Vision2020] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, April 2010: "Expert Credibility in Climate Change"

[Ted Moffett]

Another attempt to quantify what some call the "consensus" among climate
scientists that human impacts are the primary driver of the Earth's current
warming climate:

Article abstract:

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract
 Expert credibility in climate change

   1. William R. L.
Anderegg<http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=William+R.+L.+Anderegg&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>
   a<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-1>
   ,1<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#corresp-1>,

   2. James W. Prall<http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=James+W.+Prall&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>
   b<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-2>,

   3. Jacob Harold<http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Jacob+Harold&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>
   c<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-3>,
   and
   4. Stephen H.
Schneider<http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Stephen+H.+Schneider&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>
   a<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-1>
   ,d<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-4>
   ,1<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#corresp-1>

+ <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#> Author
Affiliations

   1. aDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
   2. bElectrical and Computer Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto,
   ON, Canada M5S 3G4;
   3. cWilliam and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Palo Alto, CA 94025; and
   4. dWoods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford,
   CA 94305


   1.

   Contributed by Stephen H. Schneider, April 9, 2010 (sent for review
   December 22, 2009)

 Abstract

Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys
suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of
anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses
substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of
scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate
scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting
researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement
among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC
discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers
and their publication and citation data to show that (*i*) 97–98% of the
climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here
support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, and (*ii*) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence
of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the
convinced researchers.
------------------
Full text of article available directly with no log-in:

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.full.pdf+html

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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