[Vision2020] Afghanistan, Vietnam, and Obama

[nickgier at roadrunner.com]

Good Morning Visionaries:

This column was the most difficult to write since I wrote the one on the war in Gaza.  I don't envy Obama as he sits in the White House and tries to make the right decision. It is almost certain that he will agree to the sending of more troops to die there. The Peace Prize appears especially undeserved at this point as he wages war not peace.

Reviewing the history of the Vietnam War brought back memories of my position as student chair of the Student-Faculty Committee to End the War in Vietnam at Oregon State University in 1965-66.  The faculty chair was a clean-cut prof in a suit from radiology (not a white protective suit!)and I was equally square in a tie and corderoy sports jacket.  My only concession to hippiedom was bell-bottom pants.

The full version can be read at www.home.roadrunner.com/~nickgier/Afghan09.htm

Nick Gier

AFGHANISTAN, VIETNAM, AND OBAMA

By Nick Gier

A number of prominent commentators are comparing the bleak situation in Afghanistan with the Vietnam War.  Last month former GOP Senator Chuck Hagel and Purple Heart veteran from Vietnam wrote: "In Vietnam, we kept feeding more men, material, and money into a corrupt government as our leaders continued to deceive themselves and the American people." 

The parallels are indeed instructive. Just as the Soviets failed in Afghanistan, so did we and the French lose badly in Vietnam.  The more troops we sent to Vietnam, the more Viet Cong we produced, and tens of thousands of North Vietnamese regulars came bicycling down the Ho Chi Minh trail to engage our troops.

In Vietnam we supported President Diem, a dictator so corrupt that the CIA finally had to arrange for his assassination.  Afghan President Hamid Karzai has surrounded himself with some of the most unsavory men in Afghanistan. The recent election, which initially showed Karzai winning 54 percent of the vote, was riddled with fraud. 

The U.S. justified the Vietnam War with the policy of containing Communism in Asia.  The "domino theory" predicted that if Vietnam fell, then all of the countries in Southeast Asia would turn Communist.  

Continued stable governments in Thailand and Burma disproved this theory, but Cambodia did come under the rule of the Khmer Rouge, but only because the U.S. bombed the country and forced the neutral Prince Sihanouk into the hands of the Communist Chinese.  

Iran and the countries north of Afghanistan are in no danger from the Taliban or Al Qaeda, but both are active in Pakistan.  The Pakistani army has finally taken the Taliban threat seriously and has been successful in driving them out of the Swat Valley north of the capital Islamabad.

The Pakistani army is now preparing for a drive through South Waziristan where the Taliban and Al Qaeda are the strongest.  In a move that has surprised everyone, the Taliban have preempted that campaign by storming Pakistan's Pentagon in Rawalpindi, killing 20 soldiers and holding 42 hostages for 22 hours.  The Taliban also took responsibility for eight attacks in seven areas that killed 145 people in the last two weeks. 

Obama has declared that the Taliban is no longer a threat to U.S. interests but Al Qaeda still is.  But U.S. intelligence estimates that there are only 100 Al Qaeda fighters left in Afghanistan.  Already in February of this year the Pentagon announced that Al Qaeda leadership in Pakistan had been "decimated" and that a "complete Al Qaeda defeat" was imminent.  

In the news sources since February I've counted at least 25 Al Qaeda leaders and commanders killed by missiles from our drone aircraft.  During the first four months of this year those same attacks in Pakistan have also left 687 civilians dead, causing more anger that will fuel recruitment for militant fighters.  

David Kilcullen once served as an advisor to Gen. David Petraeus, and he warned a congressional panel that the drone attacks "are deeply aggravating to the population. The current path that we are on is causing the Pakistani government to lose control over its own population."

This would be a disaster far worse than losing Afghanistan to the Taliban. Pakistan has produced 70-90 nuclear warheads and it has missiles capable of carrying them thousands of miles. Israel is of course very worried about these weapons falling into the hands of Islamic militants.  

Obama's best strategy would be to negotiate a power sharing agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan and do everything possible to make sure that Pakistan does not fall to Islamic fundamentalists. Obama's goal should be the containment of the Taliban in both countries and a plan to destroy Al Qaeda cells with minimal civilian causalities.