[Vision2020] Nobel Economist Krugman on Anthropogenic Warming: "You have to guard against the substantial possibility of really catastrophic change."

[Ted Moffett]

"You have to guard against the substantial possibility of really
catastrophic change."

Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman speaking about anthropogenic
climate change on Fareed Zakaria's "GPS" (Global Public Square) on CNN last
Sunday, Dec. 13.

Fareed Zakaria commented during the same discussion:

"Many of the estimates of what it would take to make reasonable progress on
limiting carbon emissions hover around one percent of global GDP. If that
sounds high, consider this. Over the past year, we have spent 5 percent of
global GDP sorting out the global financial meltdown. Can we not spend
one-fifth of that to ensure against a climate catastrophe?"

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0912/13/fzgps.01.html
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In discussions about the reliability of the science revealing human impacts
on climate, some claim that significant action to address the problem should
not be taken till the science is "settled," whatever that exactly means,
given that a rigorous and thoroughgoing skeptic can construct rational
arguments to question most any theory.  It is well known that modern physics
reveals unanswered questions and theoretical problems with gravity, so the
science on the theory of gravity (
http://randall.physics.harvard.edu/RandallCV/gravitywhere.htm ) is not
"settled."  I'm not going to bet against gravity, though, given the
unpleasant consequences that might result.

Though a skeptic can argue rationally for doubt about human impacts on
climate, what are the odds that humans are altering climate from greenhouse
gas emissions (and other impacts) based on well researched science from
numerous scientific organizations and thousands of scientists around the
world, and the consequences of not significantly addressing the problem if
human impacts continue to increase?

If there is a 90% chance of a hurricane flooding a major city, given the
potential for catastrophic damage, do you spend money to construct flood
protection systems?  If there is a 90% chance that human impacts on climate
will result in the world's coastlines flooding major cities and harbors
around the world from sea level rise, with immense economic and human costs,
is it prudent to take measures to lessen this potential catastrophe?

Some skeptics would continue to debate the science regarding human impacts
on climate as ocean levels rise 20 feet from Greenland and Antarctica
melting, all along insisting that natural variables could be the cause.

I agree with Noble Prize winning economist Paul Krugman, that in considering
action to address anthropogenic warming, we should "guard against the
substantial possibility of really catastrophic change."

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At website below is a transcript of a discussion on Fareed Zakaria's "GPS"
on CNN last Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009, with economists Bjorn Lomborg and Paul
Krugman, regarding anthropogenic climate change, and how to address it.
Neither Lomborg or Krugman disputed that humans are altering climate, but
they disagreed on the correct approach to addressing it:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0912/13/fzgps.01.html

KRUGMAN: Where we are now on the climate science is that some studies --
quite a few of them -- are now suggesting the possibility of really
catastrophic warming, really catastrophic warming.

And a fundamental principle here is that you don't look at the average of
the studies. You look at the high-end risks, because that's where the real
-- that's what you have to guard against. You have to guard against the
substantial possibility of really catastrophic change.

That means that you don't say, well, this is a small problem. That's not
what these are saying. We have a lot of studies now saying that we're
looking at something like a nine degrees Fahrenheit rise in temperatures by
the end of the 21st century.

That's huge. That means that you start working on all fronts.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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