[Vision2020] NOAA: Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July 2009: Climate Trend Data

[Ted Moffett]

There is a tendency to focus on the temperatures on land masses when
discussing climate change.  Of course, this is because most people live
there, and not on the oceans.  More record setting land lows than highs, or
vice versa, mean either climate is cooling or warming, we hear some assert.
But global average temperatures are a more critical figure when examining
global climate change.  It is possible to have a large number of record
setting highs in various locations, but overall to have a cooling global
climate, or a large number of record setting lows, but a warming global
climate.

The oceans cover about 70% of the Earth's surface.  The past two months have
set records for the warmest average global ocean surface temperatures,
according to NOAA.  This is too short a time span to call this a long term
trend (it might be hard to precisely define how long a time period
is required to note a long term climate trend in climate science, but at
least decades, if not centuries, of data is required, I am certain most
climate scientists would agree).  But the past two months of global ocean
surface temperatures do not support the claims coming from some in the
anthropogenic warming is doubtful camp that the Earth is entering a long
term cooling trend.

I would not be convinced this theory is supported by evidence unless annual
average global combined land and ocean temperatures dropped to the twentieth
century average or below for several years.  We are at a solar minimum, but
the cooling impact is not enough to overcome the climate forcing from
increased atmospheric CO2 (and other human impacts), over decades, even if
this minimum persisted.  Info below from NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/


[image: Line plot of solar irradiance since
1980]<http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/Fig4.gif>

*Figure 4, at right.* Solar irradiance through November 2008 from Frohlich
and Lean [ref. 8]. (Click for large
GIF<http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/Fig4.gif>or
PDF <http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/Fig4.pdf>.)

However, let's assume that the solar irradiance does not recover. In that
case, the negative forcing, relative to the mean solar irradiance is
equivalent to seven years of CO2 increase at current growth rates. So do not
look for a new "Little Ice Age" in any case. Assuming that the solar
irradiance begins to recover this year, as expected, there is still some
effect on the likelihood of a near-term global temperature record due to the
unusually prolonged solar minimum. Because of the large thermal inertia of
the ocean, the surface temperature response to the 10-12 year solar cycle
lags the irradiance variation by 1-2 years. Thus, relative to the mean, i.e,
the hypothetical case in which the sun had a constant average irradiance,
actual solar irradiance will continue to provide a negative anomaly for the
next 2-3 years.
------------------------------
Defining a climate trend for warming or cooling can easily be manipulated by
how data is charted in graphs (especially time start and stop points for
plotting), a common tactic to bend data to suit an agenda, which you will
find often on many climate "science" websites and blogs, both local and
otherwise, suggesting that anthropogenic warming is doubtful or outright
false or a hoax.  Consider that out of the past 12 years, the coolest are
1999 and 2000, according to the NOAA website immediately below.  The years
from 2001 though 2008 all fall within the ten warmest years on record (since
the late 1800s) for global average temperatures, according to the data below
from NOAA.  The graph below from NOAA charting global temperatures for over
the past 120 years might put the issue of global warming into proper
perspective.  Is NOAA involved in the global climate science conspiracy to
create a hoax (tongue in cheek here) about anthropogenic climate change?:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/ann/global.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif




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http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090814_julyglobalstats.html

 NOAA: Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July

August 14, 2009

The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July,
breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis
by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center <http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/> in
Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface
temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records
began in 1880.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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