[Vision2020] Copenhagen Climate Report: “Inaction is inexcusable”

[Ted Moffett]

I previously posted information on a recent scientific conference in
Copenhagen regarding anthropogenic climate change, which featured a rather
imposing amount of data regarding this issue:

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-June/064677.html
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The subsequent discussion suggested the issue was a matter of "my scientists
versus your scientists" regarding the truth or falsehood of the empirical
fact of anthropogenic climate change, or that the issue was too esoteric for
non PhDs in climate science to understand, so any judgement they offered was
merely an appeal to whatever scientific authority is being quoted.

Regarding these claims, if true, than any non PhD voter who votes on
economic, political, or scientific issues et. al.  is just advancing an
argument based on an appeal to authority.  The non PhD voter is not capable
of a truly informed accurate opinion.

If the voter does not possess a PhD. in foreign policy, for example, then
voting on US foreign policy issues espoused by candidates is just an appeal
to whatever authority they are following, ditto for economic or scientific
issues et. al.

In short, the fundamental principle of Democracy that it is essential that a
citizenry vote based on a well educated opinion, is flawed, unless PhDs are
possessed by most all.  Only those with PhDs can truly understand a given
subject enough to have an informed opinion.  Therefore voters are mostly
sheep being led by whatever forces influence their views, which are sadly
lacking in the expertise needed to understand the full complexity of the
subjects involved.

Plato's idea that Democracy is flawed, that government should be composed of
committees of experts who rule the masses, might be implied in such an
argument.

Whether you think society should be ruled by committees of experts, or that
Democratic principles should prevail, the following article about the threat
of anthropogenic climate change should motivate all and sundry to take
action either in their personal lives, or to influence government (the US
House passed energy/climate change legislation which still must pass the US
Senate):

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/copenhagen-climate-report-201cinaction-is-inexcusable201d?set_language=en
 Copenhagen Climate Report: “Inaction is inexcusable”

   - Deutsch<http://www.pik-potsdam.de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/kopenhagen-klimabericht-201enicht-handeln-ist-nicht-zu-entschuldigen201c?set_language=de>
|
   English

18 June 2009 - Key climate indicators such as global mean surface
temperature, sea-level rise and extreme climatic events are already moving
beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society
and economy have developed. This is one of the key messages of a report
presented by leading scientists in Brussels today in preparation for the
United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December. The
up-to-date overview of research relevant to climate change was handed over
to the Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the host of the
conference.

“We have covered new findings on climate science, climate impacts on society
and the environment, and effective tools and approaches to deal with these
challenges,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and member of the writing team.
“The scientific findings presented in this update create by themselves a
sense of urgency that we hope will lead the Copenhagen conference to
success,” says Schellnhuber, who advises the German government on global
change issues. In Copenhagen a follow-up to the Kyoto protocol will be
debated.

The Synthesis Report summarises new knowledge that was presented at the
congress “Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions” at the
University of Copenhagen in March this year. Approximately 2500 people from
nearly 80 countries attended the congress with over 1400 scientific
presentations. “The bottom line is that limiting global warming to a
manageable extent will require all our ingenuity for the climate-smart
evolution of existing structures,” says Schellnhuber. Yet large-scale
transformational measures would also be needed.

For example, the current planetary land-use pattern is the result of erratic
historical processes. These were blind to global sustainability
considerations, Schellnhuber and Veronika Huber from PIK point out in the
report. Future land-use must accommodate the demands of some nine billion
people for food and fibre, energy, infrastructures and conservation – on a
non-expandable global surface.

Analyses led by PIK indicate that twelve billion people could be nourished
on less than one third of the present agricultural area, if the best sites
were used for the most appropriate crops and if world food trade would
operate undistorted by protectionism. This bold approach would only become
feasible, however, if the prime locations (as shown in the figure) were
reserved for agriculture as part of a long-term global deal – in the same
way as the tropical rainforests hopefully will be earmarked for conservation
as part of the global commons.

“If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these threats [of
anthropogenic climate change], the time has come for stronger control of the
human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on
Earth,” the writing team states in the Synthesis Report. To decide on
effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are
changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change,
needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as among
the public. The report communicates this understanding through six key
messages:

*Key Message 1: Climatic Trends*
Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of
the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of
projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the
patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and
economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean
surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea
ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated
emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an
increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.*
*

*Key Message 2: Social and environmental disruption*
The research community provides much information to support discussions on
“dangerous climate change”. Recent observations show that societies and
ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change,
with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity
particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C will be difficult for
contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal
and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.*
*

*Key Message 3: Long-term strategy – Global Targets and Timetables*
Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and
regional action is required to avoid “dangerous climate change” regardless
of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious
impacts, including the crossing of tipping points, and make the task of
meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly. Setting a credible long-term
price for carbon and the adoption of policies that promote energy efficiency
and low-carbon technologies are central to effective mitigation.*
*

*Key Message 4: Equity Dimensions*
Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on
people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and
future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. An
effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people
least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and equitable
mitigation strategies are needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable.
Tackling climate change should be seen as integral to the broader goals of
enhancing socioeconomic development and equity throughout the world.*
*

*Key Message 5: Inaction is inexcusable*
Society already has many tools and approaches – economic, technological,
behavioural, and managerial – to deal effectively with the climate change
challenge. If these tools are not vigorously and widely implemented,
adaptation to the unavoidable climate change and the societal transformation
required to decarbonise economies will not be achieved. A wide range of
benefits will flow from a concerted effort to achieve effective and rapid
adaptation and mitigation. These include job growth in the sustainable
energy sector; reductions in the health, social, economic and environmental
costs of climate change; and the repair of ecosystems and revitalisation of
ecosystem services.*
*

*Key Message 6: Meeting the Challenge*
If the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge
is to be achieved, then a number of significant constraints must be overcome
and critical opportunities seized. These include reducing inertia in social
and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to
act on climate change; reducing activities that increase greenhouse gas
emissions and reduce resilience (e.g. subsidies); and enabling the shifts
from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership
in government, the private sector and civil society. Linking climate change
with broader sustainable consumption and production concerns, human rights
issues and democratic values is crucial for shifting societies towards more
sustainable development pathways.

*Synthesis Report “Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions”
(pdf-file, 5.5 MB)*<http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/files/synthesis-report-web.pdf>
*
*

*Event:* Policy Dialogue - Countdown to Copenhagen - the newest climate
science for decision-makers
*Hosted by:* European Policy Centre http://www.epc.eu/
*Date:* Thursday, 18 June 2009, 10.15 to 11.45
*Venue:* Renaissance Hotel, 19 Rue du Parnasse, 1050 Brussels

*More on the web:*

Abstracts for the scientific presentations at the congress “Climate Change:
Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions”
http://www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6

Transcript of the closing plenary session
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126

United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen
http://en.cop15.dk/

IPCC Assessment Reports
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm

European Policy Centre
http://www.epc.eu/

*For further information please contact the PIK press office:*
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-mail: press at pik-potsdam.de
 by Patrick Eickemeier <http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/eickem> — last
modified Jul 07, 2009 02:41 PM
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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