[Vision2020] Think again about that party — the race is neck ’n neck

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AP presidential poll: Race tightens in final weeks
Oct 22, 5:16 PM (ET)

By LIZ SIDOTI
WASHINGTON (AP) — The presidential race tightened after the final
debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less
than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows
McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters
in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent,
supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in
recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as
GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the
plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a
seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the
Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden
economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent
less than two weeks before Election Day.

"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in
government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long
enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has
sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about
McCain evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice
of running mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills."

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not
all, recent national polls.

Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the
latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by
Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News
poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the
nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street
Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered
to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is
a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means
Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6.
There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of
estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science
professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs,
in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.

"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong,"
he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within
a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that,
there's something to explain."

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a nationally representative
random sample totaling 1,101 adults, including 800 deemed likely to
vote. For the entire sample, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent
to 37 percent. He was up by five points among all registered voters,
including the likely voters.

A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a
randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had
a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the
night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after
former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party
to endorse Obama.

McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate
performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best
night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full
impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys
yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a
support "bounce" or something more lasting.

During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to
defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story
of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to
argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.

"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody,"
Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked
Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than
$250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company
where he works.

On Wednesday, McCain's campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features
that Obama quote, and shows different people saying: "I'm Joe the
plumber." A man asks: "Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion
dollars in new spending?"

Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up
support among white married people and non-college educated whites,
the poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black
voters still overwhelmingly support Obama.

The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy
and the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their
taxes will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third
who say McCain would raise their taxes.

Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

—	Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year;
he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26
earlier.

— Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

— Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and
now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among
white college graduates, no change from earlier.

— Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22
points among white men and by 7 among white women.

— Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.

— Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.

McCain has cut into Obama's advantage on the questions of whom voters
trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the
Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous
survey.

Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44
percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from
now if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.

Intensity has increased among McCain's supporters.

A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now,
the number of excited supporters is about even.

Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10
Republicans are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split.

Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable,
meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch
candidates. Those up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the
three categories: undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.

Said John Ormesher, 67, of Dandridge, Tenn.: "I've got respect for
them but that's the extent of it. I don't have a whole lot of affinity
toward either one of them. They're both part of the same political
mess."
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081022/D93VPI9O0.html