[Vision2020] For Bill London

[No Weatherman]

Yesterday, Bill London pointed to the polls to confirm his opinion.

I have seen the polls and while they bother me (because I'm a racist),
I do not invest much stock in their authority.

There are at least three reasons people should take the daily polls
with a grain of salt.

First, polling methods vary from pollster to pollster and all of them
are weighted to portray the pollster's view of the electorate.

This article explains:
Understanding Current Presidential Race Polls
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/understanding_current_presiden.html

A second reason to think twice about polls is that they change
overnight. In the last election Kerry led Bush by a similar margin
that Obama enjoys over McCain all the way through the week before the
election in key battleground states, at least so said the polls:

http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=OHIOPOLL-10-22-04&cat=PP

Zogby explains:

Zogby predicts landslide victory in presidential election
One of the country's top pollsters was in Rochester on Thursday and
suggested that the November presidential election will end in an
electoral landslide, even though the candidates are running close.

"Essentially the election is at equilibrium," said John Zogby,
president of Zogby International. "This election will stay close until
the end."

Zogby said he thinks the race will turn in the last weekend before
Election Day and though the popular vote will be tight, the successful
candidate will win in a landslide.

He likened this year's election to the contest in 1980, when Ronald
Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter.

"This may be and probably is the most important election in our
lifetime," Zogby said. "I don't say that lightly."

Despite two books by Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack
Obama, Americans still don't know enough about him. And if they don't
think they know him well enough by the time they vote, they'll go with
the "comfortable old shoe," Republican Sen. John McCain, Zogby said.

If Obama can convince voters, he'll increase turnout among young
people and minorities, Zogby said.

Zogby later added that if the winner doesn't kick off his presidency
with a period of reform, he will risk alienating a generation of
voters.

The founder of the Utica-based polling firm spoke during a "Business
Briefing" at the SUNY Brockport's MetroCenter downtown on St. Paul
Street.

Zogby identified five themes among today's voters, from the widely
held opinion that the country is headed in the wrong direction — 80
percent of Americans think so, he said — to the resurgence of the
"center" of the electorate.

"It is the center that is driving this election," he said. "It is the
center that will decide this election."
These voters are looking for a problem-solver, someone who can manage
the government competently, he said.

Zogby was promoting his book, The Way We'll Be: The Zogby Report on
the Transformation of the American Dream. In it, Zogby uses polling
data to support a vision of the future lives of Americans, from a
renewed interest in service during their later years, when they are
retired but healthy, to a decreased emphasis on material goods and
greater interest in spirituality. (9/26/2008)
— By Jill Terreri , Domocrat and Chronicle, Rochester, NY
http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadClips.dbm?ID=18373

The daily tracking polls may be good reason for some to feel good but
I think there may be more to it than meets the eye.