[Vision2020] Polls Give Democrats Sizeable Lead

[Tom Hansen]

>From today's (November 2, 2008) Spokesman Review (who endorses McCain) -

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Polls give Democrats sizeable lead

WASHINGTON – Barack Obama and the Democrats hold a commanding position two 
days before Tuesday's election, with the senator from Illinois leading in 
states with a total of nearly 300 electoral votes and his party counting 
on significantly expanded majorities in the House and Senate.

John McCain is running in one of the worst environments ever for a 
Republican presidential nominee. The senator from Arizona has not been in 
front in any of the 159 national polls conducted over the past six weeks. 
His slender hopes for winning the White House now depend on picking up a 
major Democratic stronghold or fighting off Obama in most of the five 
states President Bush won four years ago that now lean toward the 
Democrat. He also must hold onto six other states that Bush won in 2004 
but are considered too close to call.

Two factors cloud the final weekend projections. The first is how voters 
ultimately respond to the prospect of the first black president in U.S. 
history, a force that could make the contest closer than it appears. The 
other, which pushes in the opposite direction, is whether Obama and his 
campaign can expand the electorate to give him an additional cushion in 
battleground states.

Obama leads in every state that Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry won four 
years ago, which gives him a base of 252 electoral votes of the 270 needed 
to win. He also has leads of varying sizes in five states Bush won: Iowa, 
New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. Were he to win all of those on 
Tuesday, he would claim the presidency with 291 electoral votes.

Tossup states include traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Florida and 
Missouri, as well as North Carolina, Indiana and Montana, which have been 
firmly in the Republican column in the past. They account for 87 electoral 
votes and if Obama were to win several of them, his electoral vote total 
could push well into the 300s.

These projections are based on interviews by a team of Washington Post 
reporters with strategists in both parties, the presidential campaigns, 
state and local officials, and other analysts. The projections also 
include an analysis of a wealth of polling data on individual races and 
states.

In the Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll, Obama holds a nine-
point national advantage, topping McCain 53 to 44 percent. The poll 
started after the last of the three presidential debates, and Obama's 
margin has held between seven and 11 points throughout.

More than half of all voters in the Post-ABC poll say the economy is their 
central voting issue, and Obama has been the main beneficiary of that 
focus. He has a double-digit edge on the question of which candidate is 
better able to handle the economy, and he has had even wider leads as the 
one who is more in touch with the financial problems people face.

No Democrat has won more than 50.1 percent of the national vote since 
Jimmy Carter in 1976, but Obama could eclipse that number on Tuesday if 
current projections hold. McCain advisers said Saturday that they think 
the race has tightened but acknowledged that the senator has a difficult 
path to victory, given the economy, Bush's unpopularity and the sour 
public mood.

Early on, Obama set his sights on expanding the number of battleground 
states. He has used his superior financial resources to put Democrats in 
competitive positions in places where they have not been before. With the 
largest war chest ever in presidential history, Obama has heavily outspent 
McCain on television and poured millions into building an enormous field 
organization throughout the country. As a result, he has many more options 
to get to 270 electoral votes.

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said he has always assumed the 
race would be close in the end, but added: "We are entering the election 
with a lot of different scenarios to win the election, which was always 
our No. 1 strategic goal. We think we are not in danger in any of the 
Kerry states, and we've got obviously about a dozen Bush states that we 
think are potentially winnable. So, a lot of different ways to get to 270."

McCain strategists insist that he is still in a position to win. But his 
margin of error is very small. He is investing time and resources in 
Pennsylvania, the one big state Democrats carried four years ago where his 
advisers think he has a chance to win. McCain is currently behind in 
Pennsylvania, but even if he were to win there and held on to Ohio and 
Florida, he could still lose if Obama carries the five Bush states where 
he is leading.

Bill McInturff, McCain's pollster, offered a counter view by saying that 
the contest is shifting in the final days and that it is highly 
competitive. "The race is changing quickly," he said, "and I believe we're 
seeing real movement that is putting this race within margin of error 
nationally and too close to call in too many states to be able to predict 
the outcome."

Obama lost Pennsylvania to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic 
primaries and some Democrats have fretted publicly that the state's older 
population and the issue of race make it a more difficult state for him 
than many others. Democratic Gov. Edward Rendell said he expects a massive 
vote from Philadelphia and a potentially strong showing in the surrounding 
suburbs to compensate for weaknesses in other parts of the state.

Both of the vice presidential running mates – Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for 
the Republicans and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware for the Democrats – have 
been employed heavily in the Pennsylvania campaign. Palin has proved 
popular among conservatives in the central and western parts of the state, 
while Scranton native Biden has worked to overcome resistance to Obama in 
northeastern Pennsylvania.

Ohio and Florida were major disappointments to Democrats in the past two 
elections, twice providing Bush with his electoral-vote margins. Obama, 
however, is competitive in both states and will spend his final days 
working each one.

The Mountain West is another region where Obama has expanded the 
battlefield. A rising Latino population and other demographic changes have 
reshaped the politics of states there, with significant increases in 
Democratic registration in Colorado and Nevada. McCain, who pushed for 
comprehensive immigration reform, hoped to attract significant support 
from the Hispanic community, but has fallen short, according to polls. 
That has helped Obama in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

Obama planted his flag early in two traditionally conservative states – 
Indiana and Virginia – in a further effort to stretch the map. He appears 
to have withstood McCain's effort to depict him as a tax-and-spend 
liberal, and clearly has benefited from the economic woes that hit hard 
this fall. He is in a solid position in Virginia and competitive in 
Indiana. Neither state has voted for a Democratic presidential nominee 
since 1964.

Black votes are critical to Obama's hopes in both those states, and the 
same is true in Georgia and North Carolina, which have even higher 
percentages of black voters. Georgia appears likely to stay Republican on 
Tuesday, but North Carolina is highly competitive, based on the patterns 
of early voting there.

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Seeya at the polls, Moscow.

Tom Hansen
Moscow, Idaho
 
"We're a town of about 23,000 with 10,000 college students. The college 
students are not very active in local elections (thank goodness!)."

- Dale Courtney (March 28, 2007)


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