[Vision2020] Fwd: Short Term Weather vs. Long Term Climate

[Ted Moffett]

For those interested in climate science...
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I do not believe the temperature data for the past year contradicts my
Vision2020 post regarding the fact that seven of the past eight years are
among the top ten warmest years on record in the 128 year data set from
NOAA.  2007 comes in as the fifth warmest on record.  How does the data you
sent disprove this?

National Climate Data Center: NOAA: Climate of 2007 Annual Report

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp
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After looking more carefully at the data you sent regarding the alleged
global temperature lowering over the last year, I think the way this data
was presented in that blog entry is a bit misleading, though the data does
appear to be correct, as far as I could determine.  I think this statement
needs qualification:

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/

*January 2008 capped a 12 month period of global temperature drops on all of
the major well respected indicators.*
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For one thing, the lowering of global average temperatures is measured from
an unusual high temperature point in Jan. 2007, an unusually warm Jan.,
influenced by a El Nino event, then compared to a cooler Jan. 2008,
influenced by a La Nina event, which was still above the baseline
temperature average of 1950-80, for example, from the temperature data set
from James Hansen at NASA Goddard Institute. So comparing these two
temperature points, you can assert a large drop in global temperatures,
which looks startling on a graph.  But those graphs do not include the
average global temperature over the entire of 2007, measured over land and
ocean separately.   Of course this winter's La Nina in part explains cooling
ocean temperature.  But the average temperatures for the year 2007 were the
warmest land global temperatures in the 128 year record NOAA examines.  The
ocean temps average the ninth warmest.   And averaging the two, 2007 was the
fifth warmest on record.  However, the fact the average land global
temperature was the warmest on record, according to NOAA, is a "well
respected indicator" that contradicts the assertion of a global temperature
drop across all indicators.

Consider this response from Dr. John Christy to the data you sent,
indicating that there was another yearly drop in temperature that was even
larger, from 1998-99:

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/05/twelve-months-of-cooling-doesn%e2%80%99t-make-a-climate-trend/

"The 0.59 C drop we have seen in the past 12 months is unusual, but not
unprecedented; April 1998 to April 1999 saw a 0.71 C fall. The long-term
climate trend from November 1978 through (and including) January 2008
continues to show a modest warming at the rate of about 0.14 C (0.25 degrees
F) per decade.

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Here is a discussion of the difference, which is rather obvious, between
long term climate and short term weather variability, in part answering the
claims that 2007 showed anthropogenic global warming to have stopped or
reversed.  The data you sent is comparing short term weather events (the
cool Jan. 2008 referenced to the warm Jan. 2007 event), which can imply they
indicate changes in the climate that they do not represent.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertainty-noise-and-the-art-of-model-data-comparison/

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Ted Moffett
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