[Vision2020] Economists Predicted $90/Barrel Oil Induces US Recession: Now Over $100/Barrel

[Donovan Arnold]

Back in the early 1900s, there was serious energy crisis in the United States. The coal mine owners stopped paying the coal minors a livable wage, so they had to stop working. Then people began to suffer not having energy. Trains could not run, homes could not be heated, food could not be cooked. 
   
  President Roosevelt took the military and took control of the coal mines and started producing the coal. It of course cause massive uprising from all the business tycoons and free enterprise activities. But he reduced energy costs, and restored the country back to normal. 
   
  What if the next president did the same thing with oil? What if the military forced itself onto oil rigs and started pumping more oil, and build and opened more oil refiners to make sure we had affordable energy in the country? What would be the consequences of that action?
  If the president forced the private energy market to charge reasonable prices by releasing its own oil production efforts and releasing oil from its reserve?
   
  I would love to do that. It would really allow the rest of the economy to thrive if we had cheap energy. 
   
  Best Regards,
   
  Donovan

Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
    While credit tightening and mortgage defaults are cited often as main causes for the pending US recession, consider this survey of economists from just a year ago, claiming that $90 a barrel oil would cause a recession.  Oil last week hit $102 a barrel, gas and diesel costs have increased, increasing the costs of shipping product, and shifting consumer spending from shopping to gas tanks.  With $4 a gallon gas predicted, food prices increasing, etc., naturally consumers might tighten their spending, contributing to an economic slowdown.  Perhaps part of the reason some cannot make their mortgage payments is increases in energy costs:
   
  http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1125529520070312
    WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices would have to hit $90 a barrel to drive the economy into a recession, according a survey of economists released on Monday, lowering the threshold from a survey last summer.
  The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) also cited defense and terrorism issues and excessive household and corporate debt as the biggest short-term economic risks.
  A panel of 320 members surveyed by the NABE said that the median forecast for summer 2007 oil prices is now $60, compared to a median forecast for almost $75 in the last survey conducted in August 2006.
  "However, the potential effects of higher oil prices are thought to be greater now, with the median respondent indicating that $90 oil would be enough to cause a recession now versus the $100 threshold indicated by the August 2006 survey," the group said.
  -------------------------------------------
  Visiion2020 Post: Ted Moffett

   On 2/29/08, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com> wrote:
    Ted Moffett wrote:
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economists-say-2008-year-forget/story.aspx?guid=%7BF1BD8B30-B628-4AA3-853E-1FDD8D54A33E%7D
>
>
> "The recession is likely to be a serious one," said Dean Baker,
> co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
>
> He estimated losses in prime mortgages will be two to three times the
> $160-$200 billion hit seen in the subprime sector. This, he said, will
> lead to large losses at banks and difficulty for Fannie Mae and
> Freddie Mac.
>
> University of Chicago professor of finance and former chief economist
> at the International Monetary Fund, Raghuram Rajan, said questions in
> the media over whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession are
> really only about semantics.
>
> "We are going to have very low growth in the first two quarters of the
> year. Whether it is negative or zero, it is going to feel like the
> same thing," Rajan said.

The big question is: are we going to learn from this?  Will the average
American stop racking up tons of credit card debt, and stop taking out
questionable loans that should have sounded too good to be true?

Some statistics I found on the net (from
http://www.fool.com/ccc/secrets/secrets.htm):

   * Total consumer credit: $1.7 trillion.
   * Credit card debt carried by the average American: $8,562.
   * Total finance charges Americans paid in 2001: $50 billion.
   * Percent of U.S. households deemed credit worthy by the lending
     industry: 78%.
   * Number of credit card holders who declared bankruptcy last year:
     1.3 million.


Also, 75% of credit card company revenues come from finance charges.
They are also talking about starting to penalize those who pay off their
credit card bills every month.

Until we fix this problem, we'll be bouncing in and out of recessions
forever.  The only answer I see to this is education and discipline.
For example, don't buy that 60" plasma screen TV if you really can't
afford it.  This isn't rocket science.

Paul






       
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