[Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity

[lfalen]

Ted
I don't disagree with most of the information that you presented from "Science" It is just that there were a few other factors involved.
Roger
-----Original message-----
From: "Ted Moffett" starbliss at gmail.com
Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2007 14:13:07 -0700
To: lfalen lfalen at turbonet.com
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity

> All-
> 
> A report has been issued that at least one of the recent Southern California
> fires has been "confirmed" to be arson.
> 
> Of course this has nothing to do with the validity of the Science magazine
> article on Western USA forest fires and climate change (note the article
> avoids making claims about the causes of climate change, but does discuss
> CO2 sequestration related to forests and forest fires, and greenhouse
> gases).  Nor does it change the fact that the Southern California fires were
> exacerbated by record drought (worst in 130 years) and intense Santa Anna
> winds, with hurricane force gusts.
> 
> Ted Moffett
> 
> On 10/25/07, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > Roger et. al.
> >
> >
> > http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Western_US_States_Swelter_Under_Record_Heatwave_999.html
> >
> > http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2838.htm
> >
> > http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940
> >
> > The Southern California area was facing the most extreme drought in 130
> > years.  And had experienced record setting heat waves during 2007.  I
> > presented the facts.  These factors increased the magnitude of these fires,
> > do to increased drying of tinder.  Southern California was experiencing well
> > above normal high temperatures while the fires were burning.
> >
> > As to whether the fires in Southern California are arson, none of the
> > fires yet have been conclusively determined to be arson, as far as I have
> > determined.  Some already were determined to be accidentally caused by
> > humans.  Human caused fires happens every fire season, by arson or accident.
> >
> >
> > Another major factor increasing the magnitude of these fires was the
> > extreme Santa Anna winds...Again, an extreme weather event.  They were
> > getting hurricane force gusts, upper 70s, 80, 90 mph., creating a blow torch
> > effect and blowing embers long distances to spread the fire.  To prevent
> > these conditions from spreading the fire long distances by more clearing of
> > brush etc. is doubtful.  However, anywhere people have homes with flammable
> > vegetation nearby, of course this is a risk.  Look at Moscow Mountain.
> >
> > The Science magazine article on Western US fire activity presents well
> > documented data about the earlier arrival of Spring, earlier snow pack melt,
> > coupled with higher temperatures, increasing the length of fire season and
> > the magnitude of fires, since 1987, in the Western USA.
> >
> > The authors make it quite clear that this increase is not explained by
> > human land use variables.  Maybe the forests could have been managed better
> > (more clearing of underbrush) to reduce fire danger, but with earlier start
> > of Spring, earlier snow pack melt, and higher temperatures, the forests dry
> > out sooner and more, and this increases the duration of the fire season and
> > the risk of fires of greater magnitude.
> >
> > Ted Moffett
> >
> >
> > On 10/25/07, lfalen <lfalen at turbonet.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Ted
> > > Whether published in "Science" or not there are a few things missing. I
> > > think that 1934 was hoitter than it is now. Wheather it was dryer or not I
> > > don't know. These fire were predominatly the result of arson. The extent of
> > > the fires we exacerbated by the dense underbrush that resulltd from
> > > environmetalist not allowing it to be cleared out.
> > > Roger
> > >
> >
> 
>