[Vision2020] Explorer Discovers Island Exposed By Global Warming

[Ted Moffett]

The Warming of Greenland By JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF

Correction Appended

LIVERPOOL LAND, Greenland — Flying over snow-capped peaks and into a thick
fog, the helicopter set down on a barren strip of rocks between two
glaciers. A dozen bags of supplies, a rifle and a can of cooking gas were
tossed out onto the cold ground. Then, with engines whining, the helicopter
lifted off, snow and fog swirling in the rotor wash.

When it had disappeared over the horizon, no sound remained but the howling
of the Arctic wind.

"It feels a little like the days of the old explorers, doesn't it?" Dennis
Schmitt said.

Mr. Schmitt, a 60-year-old explorer from Berkeley, Calif., had just landed
on a newly revealed island 400 miles north of the Arctic Circle in eastern
Greenland. It was a moment of triumph: he had discovered the island on an
ocean voyage in September 2005. Now, a year later, he and a small expedition
team had returned to spend a week climbing peaks, crossing treacherous
glaciers and documenting animal and plant life.

Despite its remote location, the island would almost certainly have been
discovered, named and mapped almost a century ago when explorers like
Jean-Baptiste Charcot and Philippe, Duke of Orléans, charted these
coastlines. Would have been discovered had it not been bound to the coast by
glacial ice.

Maps of the region show a mountainous peninsula covered with glaciers. The
island's distinct shape — like a hand with three bony fingers pointing north
— looks like the end of the peninsula.

Now, where the maps showed only ice, a band of fast-flowing seawater ran
between a newly exposed shoreline and the aquamarine-blue walls of a
retreating ice shelf. The water was littered with dozens of icebergs, some
as large as half an acre; every hour or so, several more tons of ice
fractured off the shelf with a thunderous crack and an earth-shaking rumble.

All over Greenland and the Arctic, rising temperatures are not simply
melting ice; they are changing the very geography of coastlines. Nunataks —
"lonely mountains" in Inuit — that were encased in the margins of
Greenland's ice sheet are being freed of their age-old bonds, exposing a new
chain of islands, and a new opportunity for Arctic explorers to write their
names on the landscape.

"We are already in a new era of geography," said the Arctic explorer Will
Steger. "This phenomenon — of an island all of a sudden appearing out of
nowhere and the ice melting around it — is a real common phenomenon now."

In August, Mr. Steger discovered his own new island in the Norwegian
archipelago of Svalbard, high in the polar basin. Glaciers that had
surrounded it when his ship passed through only two years earlier were gone
this year, leaving only a small island alone in the open ocean.

"We saw it ourselves up there, just how fast the ice is going," he said.

With 27,555 miles of coastline and thousands of fjords, inlets, bays and
straits, Greenland has always been hard to map. Now its geography is
becoming obsolete almost as soon as new maps are created.

Hans Jepsen is a cartographer at the Geological Survey of Denmark and
Greenland, which produces topographical maps for mining and oil companies.
(Greenland is a largely self-governing region of Denmark.) Last summer, he
spotted several new islands in an area where a massive ice shelf had broken
up. Mr. Jepsen was unaware of Mr. Schmitt's discovery, and an old aerial
photograph in his files showed the peninsula intact.

"Clearly, the new island was detached from the mainland when the connecting
glacier-bridge retreated southward," Mr. Jepsen said, adding that future
maps would take note of the change.

The sudden appearance of the islands is a symptom of an ice sheet going into
retreat, scientists say. Greenland is covered by 630,000 cubic miles of ice,
enough water to raise global sea levels by 23 feet.

Carl Egede Boggild, a professor of snow-and-ice physics at the University
Center of Svalbard, said Greenland could be losing more than 80 cubic miles
of ice per year.

"That corresponds to three times the volume of all the glaciers in the
Alps," Dr. Boggild said. "If you lose that much volume you'd definitely see
new islands appear."

He discovered an island himself a year ago while flying over northwestern
Greenland. "Suddenly I saw an island with glacial ice on it," he said. "I
looked at the map and it should have been a nunatak, but the present ice
margin was about 10 kilometers away. So I can say that within the last five
years the ice margin had retreated at least 10 kilometers."

The abrupt acceleration of melting in Greenland has taken climate scientists
by surprise. Tidewater glaciers, which discharge ice into the oceans as they
break up in the process called calving, have doubled and tripled in speed
all over Greenland. Ice shelves are breaking up, and summertime "glacial
earthquakes" have been detected within the ice sheet.

"The general thinking until very recently was that ice sheets don't react
very quickly to climate," said Martin Truffer, a glaciologist at the
University of Alaska at Fairbanks. "But that thinking is changing right now,
because we're seeing things that people have thought are impossible."

A study in The Journal of Climate last June observed that Greenland had
become the single largest contributor to global sea-level rise.

Until recently, the consensus of climate scientists was that the impact of
melting polar ice sheets would be negligible over the next 100 years. Ice
sheets were thought to be extremely slow in reacting to atmospheric warming.
The 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, widely
considered to be an authoritative scientific statement on the potential
impacts of global
warming<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier>,
based its conclusions about sea-level rise on a computer model that
predicted a slow onset of melting in Greenland.

"When you look at the ice sheet, the models didn't work, which puts us on
shaky ground," said Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania
State University<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/p/pennsylvania_state_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org>.


There is no consensus on how much Greenland's ice will melt in the near
future, Dr. Alley said, and no computer model that can accurately predict
the future of the ice sheet. Yet given the acceleration of tidewater-glacier
melting, a sea-level rise of a foot or two in the coming decades is entirely
possible, he said. That bodes ill for island nations and those who live near
the coast.

"Even a foot rise is a pretty horrible scenario," said Stephen P.
Leatherman, director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida
International University in Miami.

On low-lying and gently sloping land like coastal river deltas, a sea-level
rise of just one foot would send water thousands of feet inland. Hundreds of
millions of people worldwide make their homes in such deltas; virtually all
of coastal Bangladesh lies in the delta of the Ganges River. Over the long
term, much larger sea-level rises would render the world's coastlines
unrecognizable, creating a whole new series of islands.

"Here in Miami," Dr. Leatherman said, "we're going to have an ocean on both
sides of us."

Such ominous implications are not lost on Mr. Schmitt, who says he hopes
that the island he discovered in Greenland in September will become an
international symbol of the effects of climate change. Mr. Schmitt, who
speaks Inuit, has provisionally named it Uunartoq Qeqertoq: the warming
island.

Global warming has profoundly altered the nature of polar exploration, said
Mr. Schmitt, who in 40 years has logged more than 100 Arctic expeditions.
Routes once pioneered on a dogsled are routinely paddled in a kayak now;
many features, like the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf in Greenland's northwest, have
disappeared for good.

"There is a dark side to this," he said about the new island. "We felt the
exhilaration of discovery. We were exploring something new. But of course,
there was also something scary about what we did there. We were looking in
the face of these changes, and all of us were thinking of the dire
consequences."

Correction: January 18, 2007

Because of an editing error, an article in Science Times on Tuesday about
the appearance of a new island as a result of glacial melting in
Greenlandreferred incorrectly to a region where another such island
has appeared.
Svalbard, off Norway, is an archipelago, not an island.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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