[Vision2020] Anger over global warming report

[Art Deco]

Anger over global warming report
Story Highlights
. Scientists, diplomats argue over wording of landmark global warming report
. Disagreement centers on confidence scientists have in their findings
. China and Saudi Arabia insist confidence level be reduced to "high"
. Delegates are also struggling to make the report easy to understand

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- An authoritative international global warming conference, way past the deadline for finishing its report, lapsed into an unprecedented showdown between scientists and diplomats over authors' concerns that governments were watering down their warnings.

Last-minute negotiations over language continued behind closed doors Friday, less than one hour before a scheduled release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in Brussels.

A dispute between the scientific authors and the diplomatic editors of the report erupted over the sixth paragraph in the 21-page summary that sets out how much confidence the scientists have in their findings about the effects global warming is already having.

The sentence originally said scientists had "very high confidence" -- which means more than 90 percent chance of accuracy -- in the statement that many natural systems around the globe "are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases."

After days of intensive negotiations over this section, delegates from China and Saudi Arabia on Friday insisted that the confidence level be reduced to "high" -- which means more than 80 percent accuracy.

Three top scientific authors formally objected to the change by the diplomats, saying it was an unprecedented weakening of the scientific confidence that the issue was not raised when the report was circulated months ago.

In the hurry to get the report finished before a 10 a.m. (0800GMT) release and news conference, diplomats forced the last-minute removal and altering of parts of the iconic table, which shows the ill-effects of warming with each 1-degree Celsius (1.8-degree Fahrenheit) increase in temperature, scientists and other delegates told The Associated Press.

Participants in the marathon negotiations said government delegates have already weakened the original language in the report.

A final draft of the report -- written by scientists before government officials edit it -- says "roughly 20-30 percent of species are likely to be at high risk of irreversible extinction" if global average temperature rises by 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit). (Watch a worst-case scenario for U.S. cities)

That part has been "diluted," said retired scientist Ian Burton attending the session on behalf of the Stockholm Environment Institute.

Another delegate said the amended version hedged on the sweep of the original text, inserting a reference to species "assessed so far."

Guy Midgley of the National Botanical Institute in South Africa, a lead author of the chapter on ecosystems that includes extinctions, said the changes will be "commensurate with the science."

Another prolonged tussle emerged over whether to include estimated costs of damage from climate change -- calculated per ton of carbon dioxide emissions, said the delegates on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

A main issue at the Brussels conference is how the report will say what it has to say in the most effective possible way -- that 120 nations' negotiators can accept.

The key is making it easily understandable, said Oyvind Christophersen, who heads the Norwegian delegation as a senior adviser for climate and energy. "The challenge is how to summarize a big, big report."

The entire final draft report, obtained last week by The Associated Press, has 20 chapters, supplements, two summaries and totals 1,572 pages. This week's wrangling is just over the 21-page summary for policymakers.

It is the second of four reports from the IPCC this year; the first report in February laid out the scientific case for how global warming is happening. This second report is the "so what" report, explaining what the effects of global warming will be. (Watch how this report differs from earlier statements)

Some of the biggest debates in the closed-door negotiating session centered on what to include on the charts that summarize "key vulnerabilities" the world faces with global warming.

The charts have been called a "highway to extinction" because they show that with every degree of warming, the condition of much of the world worsens -- with starvation, floods and the disappearance of species.

Those charts "tell us there's a danger in the future," said Belgian delegate Julian Vandeburie, who is in the science policy branch of his government.

Vandeburie compared the world's current situation to the Munich peace conference in 1938, when Britain and France had a choice between confronting Hitler and appeasing him: "We are at the same moment. We have to decide on doing something or not."
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