[Vision2020] New IPCC Climate Report: ‘Highway to extinction’

[Ted Moffett]

Climate report: 'Highway to extinction' Dire predictions includes loss of
species, increasing scarcity of water
 The Associated Press
 Updated: 4:43 a.m. PT April 1, 2007

WASHINGTON - A key element of the second major report on climate change
being released Friday in Belgium is a chart that maps out the effects of
global warming with every degree of temperature rise, most of them bad.

There's one bright spot: A minimal heat rise means more food production in
northern regions of the world.

However, the number of species going extinct rises with the heat, as does
the number of people who may starve, or face water shortages, or floods,
according to the projections in the draft report obtained by The Associated
Press

Some scientists are calling this degree-by-degree projection a "highway to
extinction."

It's likely to be the source of sharp closed-door debate, some scientists
say, along with a multitude of other issues in the 20-chapter draft report
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While the wording in the
draft is almost guaranteed to change at this week's meeting in Brussels,
several scientists say the focus won't.

The final document will be the product of a United Nations network of 2,000
scientists as authors and reviewers, along with representatives of more than
120 governments as last-minute editors. It will be the second of a
four-volume authoritative assessment of Earth's climate released this year.
The last such effort was in 2001.

University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said the chart of
results from various temperature levels is "a highway to extinction, but on
this highway there are many turnoffs. This is showing you where the road is
heading. The road is heading toward extinction."

Weaver is one of the lead authors of the first report, issued in February.

While humanity will survive, hundreds of millions, maybe billions of people
may not, according to the chart—if the worst scenarios happens.

*'Major extinctions around the globe'
*The report says global warming has already degraded conditions for many
species, coastal areas and poor people. With a more than 90 percent level of
confidence, the scientists in the draft report say man-made global warming
"over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many
physical and biological systems."

But as the world's average temperature warms from 1990 levels, the
projections get more dire. Add 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- 1 degree Celsius is
the calculation scientists use—and between 400 million and 1.7 billion extra
people can't get enough water, some infectious diseases and allergenic
pollens rise, and some amphibians go extinct. But the world's food supply,
especially in northern areas, could increase. That's the likely outcome
around 2020, according to the draft.

Add another 1.8 degrees and as many as 2 billion people could be without
water and about 20 percent to 30 percent of the world's species near
extinction. Also, more people start dying because of malnutrition, disease,
heat waves, floods and droughts—all caused by global warming. That would
happen around 2050, depending on the level of greenhouse gases from the
burning of fossil fuels.

At the extreme end of the projections, a 7- to 9-degree average temperature
increase, the chart predicts: "Up to one-fifth of the world population
affected by increased flood events ... "1.1 to 3.2 billion people with
increased water scarcity" ..."major extinctions around the globe."

Despite that dire outlook, several scientists involved in the process say
they are optimistic that such a drastic temperature rise won't happen
because people will reduce carbon dioxide emissions that cause global
warming.

"The worst stuff is not going to happen because we can't be that stupid,"
said Harvard University oceanographer James McCarthy, who was a top author
of the 2001 version of this report. "Not that I think the projections aren't
that good, but because we can't be that stupid."

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17889856/

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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