[Vision2020] Bush Adviser's Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi Leader

[lfalen]

It does't look like there is going to be peace in Iraq short of a strongman like Saddam or a Teto. The best thing is probably to divide Iraq into 3 parts (Kurds, Sunni, Shite). 

Roger
-----Original message-----
From: "Tom Hansen" thansen at moscow.com
Date: Wed, 29 Nov 2006 07:09:41 -0800
To: "Vision 2020" vision2020 at moscow.com
Subject: [Vision2020] Bush Adviser's Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi Leader

> >From today's (November 29, 2006) New York Times -
> 
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Bush Adviser's Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi Leader 
> By MICHAEL R. GORDON
> 
> WASHINGTON, Nov. 28 - A classified memorandum by President Bush's national
> security adviser expressed serious doubts about whether Prime Minister Nuri
> Kamal al-Maliki had the capacity to control the sectarian violence in Iraq
> and recommended that the United States take new steps to strengthen the
> Iraqi leader's position.
> 
> The Nov. 8 memo was prepared for Mr. Bush and his top deputies by Stephen J.
> Hadley, the national security adviser, and senior aides on the staff of the
> National Security Council after a trip by Mr. Hadley to Baghdad. 
> 
> The memo suggests that if Mr. Maliki fails to carry out a series of
> specified steps, it may ultimately be necessary to press him to reconfigure
> his parliamentary bloc, a step the United States could support by providing
> "monetary support to moderate groups," and by sending thousands of
> additional American troops to Baghdad to make up for what the document
> suggests is a current shortage of Iraqi forces.
> 
> The memo presents an unvarnished portrait of Mr. Maliki and notes that he
> relies for some of his political support on leaders of more extreme Shiite
> groups. The five-page document, classified secret, is based in part on a
> one-on-one meeting between Mr. Hadley and Mr. Maliki on Oct. 30. 
> 
> "His intentions seem good when he talks with Americans, and sensitive
> reporting suggests he is trying to stand up to the Shia hierarchy and force
> positive change," the memo said of the Iraqi leader. "But the reality on the
> streets of Baghdad suggests Maliki is either ignorant of what is going on,
> misrepresenting his intentions, or that his capabilities are not yet
> sufficient to turn his good intentions into action."
> 
> An administration official made a copy of the document available to a New
> York Times reporter seeking information on the administration's policy
> review. The Times read and transcribed the memo. 
> 
> The White House has sought to avoid public criticism of Mr. Maliki, who is
> scheduled to meet with Mr. Bush in Jordan on Wednesday. The latest surge of
> sectarian violence in Baghdad and the Democratic victories in the midterm
> elections are prompting calls for sharp changes in American policy. Such
> changes are among options being debated by the Iraq Study Group, the
> bipartisan panel led by James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton. 
> 
> Aides to President Bush, who was attending a NATO summit today in Riga,
> Latvia, scrambled to put the best face on the memo. 
> 
> "The president has confidence in Prime Minister Maliki," the White House
> press secretary, Tony Snow, told reporters, adding that the administration
> "is working with the prime minister to improve his capabilities in terms of
> dealing with the fundamental challenges in Iraq."
> 
> Two senior administration officials, who insisted on anonymity in exchange
> for talking about a classified memo, said it was unclear whether Mr. Maliki
> has seen the memo, but suggested its contents would be no surprise to the
> Iraqi prime minister, who has been in regular consultation with Mr. Bush. 
> 
> One official said a "key aspect" of the upcoming meetings in Jordan would be
> for the two leaders to determine "where we can accelerate and expand Prime
> Minister Maliki's capacity" to deal with the issues outlined in the memo.
> "That will be a dominant subject," the official said.
> 
> Even so, the memo will undoubtedly color the meeting between the two leaders
> when they see one another in Jordan Wednesday night. Despite the memo's
> suggestion that the prime minister may be ignorant of what is going on, or
> misrepresenting his intentions, the officials insisted the president has
> concluded Mr. Maliki's intentions are good. "The judgment is that it's a
> capability issue," one official said.
> 
> Earlier, a senior administration official had discussed the memorandum in
> general terms after being told The New York Times was preparing an article
> on the subject. The official described the document as "essentially a trip
> report" and not a result of the administration's review of its Iraq policy,
> which is still under way. 
> 
> He said the purpose of the memo "was to provide a snapshot of the challenges
> facing Prime Minister Maliki and how we can best enhance his capabilities,
> mindful of the complex political and security environment in which he is
> operating."
> 
> The American delegation that went to Iraq with Mr. Hadley included Meghan L.
> O'Sullivan, the deputy national security adviser, and three other members of
> the National Security Council staff. The memo, prepared after that trip, has
> been circulated to cabinet-level officials who are participating in the
> administration's review of Iraq strategy.
> 
> There is nothing in the memo that suggests the Bush administration is
> interested in replacing Mr. Maliki as prime minister. But while Mr. Bush has
> stated that he has confidence in the Iraqi leader, the memo questions
> whether Mr. Maliki has the will and ability to establish a genuine unity
> government, saying the answer will emerge from actions he takes in the weeks
> and months ahead. 
> 
> "We returned from Iraq convinced we need to determine if Prime Minister
> Maliki is both willing and able to rise above the sectarian agendas being
> promoted by others," the memo says. "Do we and Prime Minister Maliki share
> the same vision for Iraq? If so, is he able to curb those who seek Shia
> hegemony or the reassertion of Sunni power? The answers to these questions
> are key in determining whether we have the right strategy in Iraq."
> 
> In describing the Oct. 30 meeting between Mr. Hadley and Mr. Maliki, it
> says: "Maliki reiterated a vision of Shia, Sunni and Kurdish partnership,
> and in my one-on-one meeting with him, he impressed me as a leader who
> wanted to be strong but was having difficulty figuring out how to do so." It
> said the Iraqi leader's assurances seemed to have been contradicted by
> developments on the ground, including the Iraqi government's approach to the
> Mahdi Army, a Shiite militia known in Arabic as Jaish al-Mahdi and headed by
> Moktada al-Sadr.
> 
> "Reports of nondelivery of services to Sunni areas, intervention by the
> prime minister's office to stop military action against Shia targets and to
> encourage them against Sunni ones, removal of Iraq's most effective
> commanders on a sectarian basis and efforts to ensure Shia majorities in all
> ministries - when combined with the escalation of Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM)
> killings - all suggest a campaign to consolidate Shia power in Baghdad."
> 
> Among the concerns voiced in the memo was that Mr. Maliki was surrounded by
> a small group of advisers from the Shiite Dawa Party, a narrow circle that
> American officials worry may skew the information he receives.
> 
> The memo outlines a number of short-term steps Mr. Maliki could undertake to
> establish control. The Iraqi leader has recently indicated his intention to
> take some of those steps, like announcing his intention to expand the size
> of the Iraqi Army and declaring that Iraq will seek an extension of the
> United Nations mandate that provides for the deployment of the American-led
> multinational force in Iraq. The United Nations Security Council voted on
> Tuesday to extend that mandate.
> 
> The memo also lists steps the United States can take to strengthen Mr.
> Maliki's position. They include efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to use its
> influence with the Sunnis in Iraq and encourage them to turn away from the
> insurgency and to seek a political accommodation.
> 
> Addressing Mr. Bush, the memo said one option was for the president to
> "direct your cabinet to begin an intensive press on Saudi Arabia to play a
> leadership role on Iraq, connecting this role with other areas in which
> Saudi Arabia wants to see U.S. action." Although the memo did not offer
> specifics, this appeared to be an allusion to a more active American role in
> the Arab-Israeli peace process. Recently, Israel's prime minister, Ehud
> Olmert, has reached out to the Palestinians and has said he wants to move
> ahead with peace talks. But the memo's authors also contemplate the
> possibility that Mr. Maliki's position may be too tenuous for him to take
> the steps needed to curb the power of Shiite militias, to establish a more
> diverse and representative personal staff and to arrest the escalating
> sectarian strife.
> 
> In that case, the memo suggests, it may ultimately be necessary for Mr.
> Maliki to recast his parliamentary bloc, a step the United States could
> support by pressing moderates to align themselves with the Iraqi leader and
> providing them with monetary support.
> 
> The memo refers to "the current four-brigade gap in Baghdad," a seeming
> acknowledgment that there is a substantial shortfall of troops in the Iraqi
> capital compared with the level needed to provide security there, in part
> because the Iraqi government has not dispatched all the forces it has
> promised. An American brigade generally numbers about 3,500 troops, though
> Iraqi units can be smaller. While Democrats have advocated beginning troop
> withdrawals as a means of putting pressure on Mr. Maliki, the memo suggests
> that such tactics may backfire by stirring up opposition against a
> politically vulnerable leader.
> 
> "Pushing Maliki to take these steps without augmenting his capabilities
> could force him to failure - if the Parliament removes him from office with
> a majority vote or if action against the Mahdi militia (JAM) causes elements
> of the Iraqi Security Forces to fracture and leads to major Shia
> disturbances in southern Iraq," the memo says. 
> 
> The memo lists a number of possible steps to build up Mr. Maliki's
> capability. They include asking Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior
> American commander, to develop a plan to strengthen the Iraqi leader.
> 
> This could involve the formation of a new National Strike Force,
> significantly increasing the number of American advisers working with the
> Iraqi National Police, a force that has been infiltrated by Shiite militias,
> and putting more Iraqi forces directly under Mr. Maliki's control.
> 
> In addition, the memorandum suggests that Mr. Bush ask the Pentagon and
> General Casey "to make a recommendation about whether more forces are needed
> in Baghdad."
> 
> The administration appears to have already begun carrying out some of the
> steps recommended in the document. Among them was a trip over the weekend by
> Vice President Dick Cheney to Saudi Arabia as part of an effort to seek help
> from Sunni Arab powers in encouraging Sunni groups in Iraq to seek a
> political compromise with Mr. Maliki.
> 
> The senior administration official who agreed to discuss the memo would do
> so only on condition of anonymity. The official said some of the steps
> projected in the document were being carried out. 
> 
> The official also stressed that the administration retains confidence in the
> Iraqi leader. "What we are seeing is that he had the right intentions and is
> willing to act," the senior official said. "Our own review has opened a
> consultative process on where Maliki wants to take the government. A
> successful strategy has to be one that is driven by the Iraqis."
> 
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Seeya round town, Moscow.
> 
> Tom Hansen
> Moscow, Idaho
> 
> ********************************************
> 
> "In America, anybody can become president.  
> That's one of the risks you take . . ."
> 
> - Adlai Stevenson
> 
> ********************************************
> 
> 
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