[Vision2020] U.S. Sets Plan to Aid Iraq in Civil War

[Tom Hansen]

>From today's (March 10, 2006) Washington Post -

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U.S. Sets Plan to Aid Iraq in Civil War
Security Forces Would Bear Brunt

By Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 10, 2006; Page A01

The U.S. military will rely primarily on Iraq's security forces to put down
a civil war in that country if one breaks out, Defense Secretary Donald H.
Rumsfeld told lawmakers yesterday.

Sectarian violence in Iraq has reached a level unprecedented since the
U.S.-led invasion in 2003 and is now eclipsing the insurgency as the chief
security threat there, said Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, the top U.S.
commander in the Middle East, who appeared with Rumsfeld.

"The plan is to prevent a civil war, and to the extent one were to occur, to
have the . . . Iraqi security forces deal with it to the extent they're able
to," Rumsfeld told the Senate Appropriations Committee when pressed to
explain how the United States intended to respond should Iraq descend
wholesale into internecine strife.

If civil war becomes reality, "it's very clear that the Iraqi forces will
handle it, but they'll handle it with our help," Abizaid said later when
asked to elaborate on Rumsfeld's remark.

The sobering assessment of sectarian tensions in Iraq shows the extent to
which the Feb. 22 bombing of a holy Shiite shrine, and the ensuing revenge
attacks that left hundreds of Sunni and Shiite Muslims dead, has shifted
military calculations on a range of fronts, including what constitutes the
top security challenge and prospects for further reductions in U.S. troop
levels this year.

Yesterday's statements suggested that the imperative to curb sectarian
violence, and the risk that it will evolve into civil war -- a risk
commanders have long warned was real, if remote -- has now emerged as a
central consideration for U.S. strategy in Iraq.

"There's no doubt that the sectarian tensions are higher than we've seen,
and it's a great concern to all of us," Abizaid told the Senate committee,
adding that the situation in Iraq is "changing [in] nature from insurgency
toward sectarian violence." Asked about that comment after the briefing,
Abizaid said that "sectarian violence is a greater concern for us
security-wise right now than the insurgency."

Abizaid and Rumsfeld voiced the belief that Iraq is not currently engulfed
in a civil war and expressed confidence in Iraqi security forces, saying
they had performed generally well after the recent wave of sectarian unrest.
The country "is not in civil war at the present time, by most experts'
calculations," Rumsfeld said.

The key to averting a civil war, they told lawmakers, is the quick formation
of a unified Iraqi government that is broadly representative of the main
Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish religious and ethnic groups.

"The situation, to the extent that it's fragile and tense, is as much a
governance issue as it is a security issue," Rumsfeld said. "The need is for
the principal players in the country to recognize the seriousness of the
situation and come together to form a government of national unity that will
govern from the center and do it in a reasonably prompt manner," he said.
"That will be what it will take, in my view, to further calm the situation."

Rumsfeld's testimony included some tense exchanges with Democratic senators,
who pressed to know what the latest violence in Iraq would mean for the
presence in the country of U.S. troops, who currently number about 132,000,
down from 138,000 earlier this year.

Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) repeatedly asked Rumsfeld whether 2006 will
be a year of transition to Iraqi security forces, allowing the withdrawal of
significant numbers of U.S. troops by the end of the year. Rumsfeld declined
to discuss troop levels, saying it would be "ill-advised for me to make a
prediction," but he said that Iraqi security forces are "doing a good job"
and that Iraqi leaders are taking responsibility for conflict in the
country.

"Proof positive the Iraqi security forces are as good as you say is when
American troops can come home," Durbin responded. "That's proof positive.
Every year we hear about growing numbers and growing capabilities, and yet .
. . our best and bravest are still there in danger today."

Other Democrats called "unrealistic" Rumsfeld's decision to rely primarily
on Iraqi security forces in an outbreak of civil war. "The real issue here
is, where will those security forces place their loyalties, and will we be
caught in the middle of a situation in which it's unclear to us who the
enemy is," Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said after a closed Senate briefing on
Iraq operations by Abizaid and Rumsfeld after the public session.

Reed, Durbin and other Democrats urged Rumsfeld to tell the Iraqi leadership
that the United States would soon begin to withdraw troops, as a means of
gaining leverage to compel the Iraqis to form a compromise government. "If
that real government doesn't materialize, we might be stuck" taking sides,
Reed said in an interview.

In Baghdad, tit-for-tat sectarian attacks continued yesterday, with a bomb
targeting a Sunni mosque and killing five civilians. In all, car bombs
killed 16 people in the capital. Another car bomb targeting a police patrol
killed nine civilians, news agencies reported, citing police.

Iraq's government announced the hanging Thursday of 13 people convicted as
terrorists. The hangings marked the first court-ordered executions of
insurgents, although three other people -- convicted murderers -- have been
legally executed since Iraq reinstated the death penalty in 2004. The
Cabinet statement that announced the hangings identified only one of the
condemned, Shuqair Fareed, a former Mosul police officer. State television
had trumpeted Fareed's confession last year in about 90 killings, including
the shooting of two colleagues as they gave him a ride home from work one
day.

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Seeya round town, Moscow.

Tom Hansen
Moscow, Idaho