[Vision2020] What Counts as Progress in Iraq

[nickgier at adelphia.net]

Dear Visionaries:

I've just jotted down some basic criteria for what would count as progress in the war in Iraq.

1.  Progress in Iraq might have been possible with a wise and well planned beginning. If the Bush Administration wanted to have a successful invasion of Iraq (which most of the world did not want), it should have least followed the advise of the Joint Chiefs. As a result of not having enough troops, the basic obligation of an occupying force—SECURITY—was not achieved.  Large ammo dumps were passed by (great source of artillery shells for IEDs) and former nuclear facilities were not secured.  For over three years unsecured borders have allowed foreign fighters and arms to flow unrestricted into the country.  

A well reasoned State Department plan for reconstruction was scrapped.  Only a small number of health clinics budgeted have been completed.  Electricity is at pre-war levels, while demand is way up.  Oil is flowing at only 80 percent of prewar levels, much of being stolen by criminal gangs allied with troops who are supposed to defend the pipelines.

2.  Progress in Iraq was once based on the prediction that when Saddam and his top officers were captured, the insurgency would die down.  It did not. Zarqawi has been dead for two weeks and the killing continues unabetted.  One marine interviewed on NPR, who said that we should stay until the mission is completed, also said that our presence was the reason for the continued insurgency.  According to his own logic, the insurgency is bound to continue as long as we are there.

3. Progress in Iraq would be measured by the U.S.'s ability to prevent a civil war between Sunnis and Shias.  Political scientists define a civil war as one in which combatants of the same country have killed 1,000 of their own people.  This number was reached long ago. Our invasion, plus the action of terrorists such as Zarqawi, who had no base in Iraq before the war, has started a civil war in Iraq.

4.  Progress in Iraq would be measured by improving security for all areas of the country, and maintaining security where it had already been established.  This has not been achieved, even in Basra, a once relatively peaceful area, is now in chaos.

Nick Gier