[Vision2020] The Wal-Mart Effect on Moscow

Donovan Arnold donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com
Sun Feb 12 16:40:47 PST 2006


"If you could find one individual who says they will not attend UI  unless it gets a Super Wal-Mart as opposed to a mere Wal-Mart, or one  person at UI who has heard such a conversation, then I'll consider you  to be more of a realist than I am."-JC
  
  So Joe, your answer to an illogical thought to to present to me another illogical question?
  
  Whether or not the Super Wal-Mart maintains or bringing in new students  is not dependent upon the principles of simple economics but that  Donovan Arnold be able to know and identify to Joe Campbell 1  individuals that will testify to the fact that they will not return to  Moscow in Fall 06 if a Super Wal-Mart is not built.
  
 Perhaps  we can use the same logic for other decision making. How many people  will leave Moscow if we reduce the number of police by 1/2, or  eliminate a fire station? Can you name one person that would leave  Moscow if that happened?  I don't know anybody being born in  China, does that mean nobody is being born in China, Joe? Can you find  anyone that would not travel the current I-95 if we do not build a new  one? How many people were going to leave New York is the statue wasn't  built?
  
 Simple statistics show that as the affordability of  attending UI goes down, students enrollment goes down. I am not  claiming that someone will leave solely because of a Super Wal_Mart not  being added. What I am contenting is that a lack of Super Wal-Mart will  reduce the overall number of students attending UI.
  
 If  Wal-Mart keeps 100 students here, and helps sway 100 more students they  can afford UI, that is 4 million a year being brought into the Moscow  economy. Can you name any locally owned businesses in Moscow that would  be wiped out by a Super Wal-Mart that produce $4 million worth of  revenue for the city?
  
 As far as reducing the cost of housing  in Moscow, the only way to do that is to produce more housing to reduce  the tax burden. Low income housing units operate on about a 5% profit  margin. So even if you, or the city council, could persuade the owners  of such properties to reduce their gross earnings to 50% you would be  saving low income families about $10 a month. It wouldn't do jack for  90% of college students who do not qualify for low income housing being  dependents on their parents of being full-time students. 
  
  _DJA
  
  
  
  
  

joekc at adelphia.net wrote:  Donovan,

If  you could find one individual who says they will not attend UI unless  it gets a Super Wal-Mart as opposed to a mere Wal-Mart, or one person  at UI who has heard such a conversation, then I'll consider you to be  more of a realist than I am. 

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think  that the town council has had a member in recent years who is more  supportive of affordable housing than Bob Stout. I'm interested to see  what he does! Hopefully we'll be able to continue this conversation  after he's been given some time to do some work.

--
Joe Campbell

---- Donovan Arnold  wrote: 

=============

Joe,

You wrote:

"I did not deny that many students "make a determination on where to go 
to college based on the affordability of the college and town." I 
denied that whether a town had a Super Wal-Mart as opposed to a mere 
Wal-Mart had anything to do with their decision making."

Let us follow this logic;

IF A) Wal-Mart increases the affordability of attending college.
IF B) Super Wal-Mart increases the affordability of attending a college even more.
IF C) Affordability of attending a college is a factor.
      .
Then . . Even greater affordability is not a factor in attending college. 

Does not seem to follow my understanding of the economic model or logic.

I believe that when prices goes down, affordability goes up. When
prices goes up, affordability goes down, assuming we are using constant
dollars.


"I will add that I am not a fatalist. I think that something can be done 
about the affordable housing problem in Moscow and that Bob Stout and 
the other council members will do something significant over the next 
few years provided that they work together on this issue. There are 
plenty of other factors besides taxes that play a role in housing prices."

You are obviously not a realist either. The city has had
been saying that for 25 years, yet nothing. Governments cannot
raise taxes and oppose the expansion of businesses and housing 
and expect housing prices to decline. 

If the city of Moscow wanted to decrease housing prices, and
property taxes, it could do so by pushing for mass housing
construction. That would slow down property value increases
reducing property tax increases, and reduce demand, reducing
rent. But the city would never do that. Moscow leaders want a
0% growth rate, and they pretty much have it. 

Take Care,

_DJA
  

joekc at adelphia.net wrote:  Donovan,

I  did not deny that many students "make a determination on where to go to  college based on the affordability of the college and town." I denied  that whether a town had a Super Wal-Mart as opposed to a mere Wal-Mart  had anything to do with their decision making. Issues like affordable  housing have much more to do with their decision making when it comes  to matters of "the affrodability of the college and town." That is all  I said.

I will add that I am not a fatalist. I think that  something can be done about the affordable housing problem in Moscow  and that Bob Stout and the other council members will do something  significant over the next few years provided that they work together on  this issue. There are plenty of other factors besides taxes that play a  role in housing prices.

Joe Campbell

---- Donovan Arnold  wrote: 

=============
Joe,
  
  Believe it or not, most students and their parents do make a  determination on where to go to college based on the affordability of  the college and town. Having a large discount retail store and a large  discount grocery store available to them does impact affordability. If  you don't believe college students depend on discount retail, go to the  Wal-Mart and ShopKo parking lot and count the number of student cars.  Go down to Lewiston and count the student cars there. Go to the Super  Wal-Mart near BSU and look for the student cars. You will find plenty  near any publicly funded university or college.
  
 Wal-Mart  wants to expand because it is responding to student and other consumer  demands for increased availability of goods and services. That is the  way supply and demand works. Wal-Mart would not want to be expanding if  consumers did not want it. 
  
 For every 50 students the UI  fails to retain or does not attract to UI, Moscow loses about $1  million in federal and state dollars per year. $1 million that will not  be going to local businesses and establishments in Moscow but some  other town like Boise that can meet or better meet student needs and  demands. 
  
 Regarding the other issue of affordable housing,  the reason housing is unaffordable is because of heavy property taxes  and housing units with overinflated market values. Moscow has a slew of  vacant affordable housing units because students do not qualify for  them because you cannot be a single college student and be in most  subsidized housing in Moscow. Second, the subsidized housing units in  Moscow are still higher than unsubsidized housing units in most other  cities in Idaho including Boise. If you are a non-college student, why  rent a subsidized apartment in Moscow for $450 when you can buy a house  in Potlatch or Deary for $475 a month? If people want to make housing  affordable in Moscow they need to reduce the property tax rate, that is  the only way aside from building more housing units then we need.  Moscow has no control over the property tax values.
  
  Take Care,
  
  Donovan J Arnold
  

joekc at adelphia.net  wrote:It is just incorrect to think that ANY student makes a decision  about where to go to school based on whether or not there is a Super  Wal-Mart in the town, as opposed to just a regular, old Wal-Mart.

And  if you think that your argument is correct, Donovan, why not work with  Bob Stout and other council members to do something about affordable  housing in Moscow? That would make a real difference.

--
Joe Campbell

---- Donovan Arnold  wrote: 

=============
        The Wal-Mart Effect on Moscow 
  Many of Wal-Mart’s detractors erroneous like to make  the claim that Moscow’s quality of life and economy is  based upon the small number of locally owned and operated retail  establishments. But any rational person understands that  Moscow’s economy and job market is primarily based  upon the University of Idaho. The survival of local businesses depends  upon the wealth passed on from the University of Idaho. 
           
  The wealth of the University is dependent upon federal and state  dollars allocated to it based on student enrollment. Enrollment is  based on two factors, the number of students that stay at UI, or  retention rate, and the number of new students. The retention rate,  according to Michael Griffle, the Director of University Residents at  UI, has dropped from 90% to below 77%. The primary reason is because of  the lack of affordability of living in Moscow. In addition, according  to a recent report put out by UI President Tim White, the new students  being obtained by the University are increasingly minority,  non-traditional, and first generation students, or students with  generally less means and wealth. 
           
 A lower student  enrollment will reduce the amount of money and resources to Moscow from  the federal and state government. This in turn will reduce the amount  of money that will be spent on local businesses. It will also reduce  the number of jobs at the University and in turn the local private  business sector of the community. 
           
 While many can  successfully argue that tuition and fees at UI remains among the  lowest, they would be fighting a losing battle to claim that Moscow is  an inexpensive to live. Rent in Moscow is one the highest in the state.  Gas and utilities are also very prohibitive. When other costs are added  in, such as few public transportation options, increases on food, video  rentals, and a $5.15 an minimum wage, Moscow becomes truly prohibitive  and inhospitable for many poor college students. 
           
  Wal-Mart provides at least some relief from the unaffordable Moscow.  College students need the $99 futon, the $40 microwave, the $35 DVD  player, and the $5 lamp. They depend upon it. They do not care if the  thing breaks within two years; they only need it till May. They do not  have the money to buy the $250 bed, the $100 microwave or the nice DVD  player, nor do they have the resources and time to haul it all home in  nine months and back again in two and 1/2 months. 
           
  Moscow businesses are not in competition with a Wal-Mart just at 185  Warbonnet Drive. They are also in competition with a Super Wal-Mart  near BSU, a Super Wal-Mart near ISU, and a Super Wal-Mart near every  community college and university that caters to lower and middle income  students. Ignoring this fact does not make it untrue. The best survival  for local businesses is to allow Wal-Mart to meet the basic needs of  college students so enrollment stays up while they provide services and  goods Wal-Mart does not provide. Not providing goods and services to  students that fits the student budget in the hopes that it will force  them to pay a higher amount of money at a local shop is a poor long  term strategy and is obviously failing as UI students opt to finish  their education in a more affordable town. 
           
 Local  citizens concerned about local businesses need to turn their energy  towards retention and recruitment for UI and reducing the costs of  living for college students as well as buying locally when they can  afford it. $1000 a month for rent and $5 for a pound a beef in a town  that pays $5.55 an hour will kill your local economy more quickly then  any Super Wal-Mart. Killing competition inside  Moscow’s boarders kills Moscow’s  competitiveness outside its boarders. UI and Moscow need a Super  Wal-Mart to remain competitive with other universities and colleges. 
               
  -Donovan J Arnold
    
  
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