[Vision2020] HIV Probability Of Transmission

[Tbertruss at aol.com]

All:

Risk of HIV infection per sexual act?  

Depending on numerous variables in numerous countries, science based study of 
various populations has shown risk of infection per sexual act varying from 1 
in 500 to 1 in 10000.

At the bottom and in the middle are links to a few science & statistical 
based articles on the probability of transmission of HIV per sexual act in certain 
populations.

These varying rates are reflective in some of these populations for the risk 
for "unprotected" sex, with minimal or no condom use, though some condom use 
may be a factor in the populations under study.  Thus they should not be 
considered reflective of the risk rates for HIV infection in a given population for 
a single sexual act with correct condom use, which drops to very, very low 
levels.

Because the Palouse may have recent verified cases of possible sexual HIV 
transmission, and the reliability of condoms in preventing HIV infection has been 
debated on Vision2020, consider the results of the study of discordant 
couples, one partner HIV positive, the other not.  In this study referenced at this 
link immediately below, out of 123 discordant sexually active couples who used 
condoms correctly and consistently, not a single HIV transmission occurred, 
while out of a group of 122 discordant couples who used condoms inconsistently, 
12 of the uninfected partners became infected.  While this data suggests 
condoms are dramatic in blocking HIV infection, it also reveals the difficulty in 
transmitting HIV, with known infectious sexual partnering involving numerous 
sexual acts with an uninfected partner resulting in about a 10 percent 
infection rate (not the same rate as would result from limiting the situation to a 
single sexual act with an known HIV infected partner), among discordant couples 
not taking all the reasonable precautions.

http://www.thebody.com/cdc/factcond.html

There are a variety of "sexual acts" that need to be considered, along with 
sexual lifestyle and associated health variables, demographic factors, etc. 
that result in varying rates of HIV infection potential among a given population 
(such as that a person who has a high HIV viral load, that may be associated 
with a new HIV infection within five months, may be much more infectious than a 
person who has lived with the HIV virus for a longer time, and has a lower 
viral load: so if your "area" has a lot of newly HIV infected in the population, 
infection probability per sexual act may increase significantly) . 

I'm hesitant to explore the "details."  Is this G, PG, PG-13, NC-17 or R 
rated?

Anyway, the objective empirical data offered might calm a few nerves for 
those at risk on the Palouse, though my intent is not to paint a rosy picture.  
Unless you are a monk or a nun who has never played a sport or done anything 
where you might contact another person's blood, consider an HIV test.  Forget the 
stigma.  People who have only had sex with their loyal monogamous spouse or 
partner have contacted HIV via sex.  Even the NBA gets players with bloody 
injuries off the court pronto till the blood flow is stopped, a very strict policy 
due in part to potential for HIV infection. Of course pregnancy (mother to 
infant), sharing or reusing needles, and blood transfusions, in fact, as 
mentioned, any contact with another person's blood, are risk factors for transmission 
of HIV, as every EMT, doctor and nurse, even dental assistants, knows.  

HIV is not easy to transmit, thankfully, or the HIV/AIDs problem would be 
many times worse.

It is important to point out that some sexual acts that are the highest risk 
type of sex for HIV transmission can be engaged in by both heterosexual and 
homosexual couples.  And that other sexual acts that have the lowest risk of HIV 
transmission also can be engaged in by both same and different sex couples.

http://big.berkeley.edu/ifplp.hivtrans.pdf.

HTML easier to load version of link above:


http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:O5AFDgyTwO8J:big.berkeley.edu/ifplp.hivtrans.pdf+hiv+transmission+probability+percent+per+coital+act&hl=en

>From The Lancet:

http://www.cirp.org/library/disease/HIV/gray2/#n2

Below From King County (Seattle) public health.  Note information at bottom 
under "Summary" for certain precautions against infection post sex some might 
take that actually are asserted to increase risk!

http://www.metrokc.gov/health/apu/infograms/hiv_transmission_0302.htm

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Vision2020 Post by Ted Moffett
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