[Vision2020] Building and development planning
Phil Nisbet
pcnisbet1 at hotmail.com
Thu Aug 18 16:28:40 PDT 2005
Its a little of both actually. But the major driver for now is high crude
prices.
There could be a reduction in the price of distillates is newer refineries
were allowed to be developed. The newer higher performance catalysts are
not as effective in the circa 1950's age plants we have dominating the US
infrastructure. Its a matter of squeezing more gas out of every barrel of
oil, which of course would lower finished product prices by a margin, but no
where near what the run up in crude prices have done to feedstock costs.
Each 42 gallon barrel of oil turns into about 20 gallons of gasoline, 10
gallons of deisel fuel and home heating oil, four gallons of Jet Fuel and
then 8 gallons of petrochemical feedstocks and lubricants.
So each gallon of feedstock to make a gallon of gasoline is about $1.50 to
which you can add about $0.50 a gallon federal and state taxes, even before
you look at the cost they put into a gallon to make the gasoline from the
crude oil in the refinery. Thats $10 in tax from the gasoline side from
state and Federal Governments on each barrel of oil, regardless of where
that barrel comes from.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/brochure/oil_gas/primer/primer.htm
Gasoline is the best product for margins the oil companies produce, but only
half a barrel ever becomes gas. If they could get more gas, bingo, they
could lower prices and most often they do.
Phil Nisbet
>From: "Sunil Ramalingam" <sunilramalingam at hotmail.com>
>To: donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com, pcnisbet1 at hotmail.com,
>vision2020 at moscow.com
>Subject: RE: [Vision2020] Building and development planning
>Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 15:49:25 -0700
>
>
>
>Seems to me that would raise the price of refined products, not crude oil.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>From: Donovan Arnold <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com>
>To: Phil Nisbet <pcnisbet1 at hotmail.com>, vision2020 at moscow.com
>Subject: RE: [Vision2020] Building and development planning
>Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 15:39:23 -0700 (PDT)
> >I was under the impression that the reason that oil
> >prices are going up is not because of a lack of oil
> >but because oil refineries are not able to keep up
> >with demand.
> >
> >Correct me where I am wrong here, somebody.
> >
> >Donovan J Arnold
> >
> >--- Phil Nisbet <pcnisbet1 at hotmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > > Tom
> > >
> > > Mark is a very serious environmental activist, so I
> > > am not sure why you
> > > would direct such a comment to him.
> > >
> > > As for who
>benefits from increased crude costs, the
> > > answer is the people who
> > > hold or own crude oil reserves.
> > >
> > > 1. Saudi Arabia 261.9
> > > 2. Canada 178.81
> > > 3. Iran 125.8
> > > 4. Iraq 115.0
> > > 5. Kuwait 101.5
> > > 6. United Arab Emirates 97.8
> > > 7. Venezuela 77.2
> > > 8. Russia 60.0
> > > 9. Libya 39.0
> > > 10. Nigeria 35.3
> > >
> > > http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872964.html
> > >
> > > Or if you prefer that on the basis of production
> > > rather than reserves
> > >
> > > http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html
> > >
> > > You can also look at the top ten oil importers as
> > > countries.
> > >
> > > So the top dogs, the Saudis, are making money quite
> > >
>nicely.
> > >
> > > But it might interest you to note that Norway is the
> > > third largest exporter
> > > of oil. Canada has the second largest reserves. So
> > > if invading countries
> > > for their oil was the idea, invading Norway would
> > > look pretty good as would
> > > invading Canada.
> > >
> > > Heck, Mexico produces and exports more oil than Iraq
> > > and they at least have
> > > a great local beer.
> > >
> > > So who is 'making money'? The big winners are the
> > > top exporters, Saudi
> > > Arabia, Russia and Norway and the big losers are the
> > > USA, Japan and China
> > > since they import the largest amount of fuel. In
> > > the US thats four billion
> > > barrels of fuel a year at a
>current cost of a
> > > quarter of a trillion dollars,
> > > but the Japanese are not far behind us.
> > >
> > > The real clue on it all is per capita oil
> > > consumption and each and every
> > > American is using over 20 barrels of oil a year,
> > > compared to a Japanese
> > > using 15 Barrels or a German using 12.4 Barrels.
> > > The differences are
> > > related to life style in industrialized nations and
> > > also to production of
> > > alternatives, like Nuke power. Our actual BTU
> > > consumption of energy is only
> > > slightly higher than other industrialized nations.
> > > But they take the train
> > > and tax gas to almost twice the price of US prices.
> > > Its interesting to note
> > > that Canada has as high an oil consumption as we
>do
> > > per capita, largely due
> > > to their similarity in life styles.
> > >
> > > Now I know you want to lay claim that the bulk of
> > > all that cash is flowing
> > > to the hands of 'giant oil companies', but its tne
> > > national oil companies of
> > > a few countries who are the ones making the killing.
> > > PEMEX or Aramco are
> > > doing one heck of a lot better than Exxon or
> > > Chevron, because they simply
> > > own more oil and produce more oil than do the down
> > > streamers like the US oil
> > > firms have become.
> > >
> > > So rebuild our trains and do not turn them into
> > > trails.
> > >
> > > Start supporting local production rather than trying
> > > to stop every mine and
> > > every timber sale and
>every other bulk commodity
> > > from getting into
> > > production. Don't be a NIMBY.
> > >
> > > Support Nuke plants, like the Japanese and Germans
> > > do.
> > >
> > > And get behind programs like this one;
> > >
> > > http://www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/
> > >
> > > Because its right in our backyard, the INL program
> > > on hydropower is worth
> > > looking at, especially the low head site program
> > > they initiated over a
> > > decade ago, http://hydropower.inel.gov/
> > >
> > > Because, Tom, when they blocked every Nuke plant,
> > > blocked every low head
> > > hydro development, stopped every natural gas
> > > development, blocked geothermal
> > > drilling, protested windmills and a whole lo5t more,
> >
> > while at the same time
> > > keeping up the same old life styles, yes, a good
> > > many environmental
> > > activists stand as guilty as the rest of us and
> > > perhaps more that we are
> > > seeing the price of oil leap.
> > >
> > > Chance how we supply energy and change how we demand
> > > it, that is whats
> > > needed, the demand side is up to you, not the oil
> > > companies.
> > >
> > > Phil Nisbet
> > >
> > >
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