[Vision2020] Dubious Polls

[Tbertruss at aol.com]

SAM HUSSEINI, sam at accuracy.org, http://www.husseini.org, 
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/viewpoints/stories/092704dnedihusseini.dba34
.html 
Author of the article "A Better Gauge of Public Opinion?" which appears in 
today's Dallas Morning News, Husseini said today: "With all the polling going 
on, it's remarkable that apparently not a single poll is asking whom people want 
to be president. Virtually every poll has a structure like this: 'If the next 
presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the 
Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an independent, for whom 
would you most likely vote?' Many people will reflexively say 'Bush' simply 
because they don't want Kerry, or 'Kerry' because they don't want Bush -- even 
if their first choice is Nader or some other third party candidate." 

Husseini added: "Instead of really focusing on people's opinions, polls focus 
on the action of voting in a hypothetical context -- if the 'election were 
being held today' -- when we know it isn't. Pollsters apparently do that because 
they assume they should be predicting how the election will turn out, rather 
than offering a clear picture of what the public is thinking. A real 'public 
opinion' poll might ask: 'Regardless of his chances of winning, which of the 
following candidates do you most want to be president?' Another way would be to 
use Instant Runoff Voting: 'Please rank the following in order of whom you 
would personally want to be president.' By asking the questions they do -- and by 
not asking these other questions -- pollsters are in effect limiting the 
choices of the public. Polls should be a method for the public to articulate its 
desires rather than a tool of pundits or parties. Currently, polls solidify the 
status of the 'major candidates' and reduce citizens to little more than 
spectators at a horse race, or gamblers. 

"These issues are key because of the role that polls play in our presidential 
election. For example, the Commission on Presidential Debates states that it 
will only allow candidates who achieve 15 percent in 'national public opinion 
polls' into its debates. But the current polls are not 'public opinion polls.' 
If the CPD genuinely wanted to fulfill its own criteria, it would rely on 
polls that actually ask the U.S. public who it wants to be president." Husseini 
is communications director for the Institute for Public Accuracy. 

For more information, contact at the Institute for Public Accuracy: 
Sam Husseini, (202) 332-5055; or David Zupan, (541) 484-9167 

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V2020 Post by Ted Moffett
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