[Vision2020] "Bye George!" "Keep Your Eye on Wisconsin!!!!

[Donovan Arnold]

This race is coming down to one state now, WISCONSIN.

Why Wisconsin? Well, according to CNN/Gallup and numerous other polls coming 
out since the last debate (oct. 13), Kerry has a significant lead on 261 
electoral votes (EV), including Ohio and New Hampshire. 
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/electoral.map/index.html

This only leaves Bush 277 electoral votes, at most, unless something really 
drastic happens in the next 17 days. This electoral count still leaves open 
the battleground states of:

Wisconsin (10 EV)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)
Iowa (7)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)

Kerry needs at least (9) nine electoral votes to win.

Which state would you try to win if you were in his shoes?

Florida? That was a legal mess and Bush's brother (Gov.Jeb Bush) controls 
many aspects of the state.

How about New Mexico? Might win this state, but it would be tough, and only 
has 5, you need at least 9

Nevada? tough state to win. Hasn't voted for your party in decades, and 
again, has only 5 EV

Iowa? Not large enough, you can win this state, but risk not winning a 
second you would need.

Colorado? Well you might win the state, and then lose 4 EVs because of a 
ballot initiative.

Wisconsin? Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, one more than needed, was a 
Gore state, and has a large Black population.

Wisconsin is the obvious choice. Kerry is only polling about 60% of the 
Black population in Wisconsin. If he obtained 80% of the Black vote in 
Wisconsin he would have enough votes to win the state. Black voters usually 
vote about 85% for the Democratic Candidate.

You might ask, why is Kerry only getting 60% of the Black vote in Wisconsin? 
Simple, "School Vouchers." The Black population in Wisconsin likes the idea 
of school voucher programs which is a Republican idea.

So what Kerry needs to do is to get the Black population to come back into 
the fold. He has two major weapons here.

1) He can say that he supports limited voucher programs for local 
communities

2) Bill Clinton. Yes, remember him? Bill Clinton, is highly popular among 
Democrats and even more so among Black Americans. He is perhaps the most 
popular national figure for Black Americans. Bringing him into the major 
cities of Wisconsin would do wonders to turn the state. Bill Clinton is now 
recuperating from heart surgery. He has stated he wants to work on the 
campaign, and something tells me he isn't going to try and go for Arkansas 
or New York, which would be rather pointless at this point.

Logical argument;

Kerry wants to win
Kerry needs 10 electoral votes to win
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes
Kerry needs 1% more of the vote win Wisconsin
20% of Black voters in Wisconsin constitute 1% of the vote in Wisconsin
Kerry can get 20% more Black voters to vote for him in Wisconsin

Conclusion:
Kerry is going for Wisconsin

I firmly believe that if Kerry can stem off the negative attacks by Rove, 
and desperate they will be in the next few weeks, and can convince 80% of 
the Black population in Wisconsin to vote for him, He will be President come 
January.

My theory might also explain why funds have been stopped in West Virginia, 
why Kerry is in Wisconsin right now, and why Wisconsin is being covered last 
(to allow Clinton to recover).

The Bush Campaign is going to be like a pack of rapid dogs the next few 
weeks as they realize they are losing any possibility of getting 270 EV. 
They are not going to go down easy. It is not going to be pretty. But, it is 
going to be worth it.

I do fear the Sinclair Broadcast, but if that doesn't bring down Kerry its 
"Bye George!"


Donovan J Arnold

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