[Vision2020] Make Your Vote Count

[Donovan Arnold]

Ted, Tom, and others,

Mark my words, if this election is close and Kerry doesn't win Ohio this 
election is most likely going to generate many legal challenges. We have 
problems in Florida because of this voting machines. We have problems in 
Nevada because of voter registration fraud, and we have a problem with the 
Constitutional validity of the proportional initiative in Colorado.

Only a sure win in Ohio by Kerry would stem this off. If Kerry gets the Gore 
states plus Ohio and New Hampshire, that gives him 284 electoral votes. He 
could still lose one medium state like Wisconsin and another small one like 
NH and win, so nobody is going to challenge legalities of wins when it 
doesn't change the outcome of the election. But if Kerry gets the Gore 
States, 260 electoral votes, plus either Florida, or a combination of two 
smaller states and 4 electoral votes from Colorado, Bush will challenge it 
and most likely win. This comes down to money and a good legal defense, not 
the will of the people.

If the election remains close until election day, three major outcomes are 
possible (numerous slight variations can happen, but unlikely).

1) Bush wins by keeping all the states he won in 2000, including Florida, 
and/or doesn't lose more than 10 electoral votes from his previous states he 
won in 2000.

2) Kerry wins by winning the Gore states, plus Ohio and/or Florida.

3) Kerry and Bush lock into a legal battle. Kerry wins the Gore States, plus 
New Hampshire, Nevada, and 4 from Colorado.



*4) The Nightmare Scenario.

Without Colorado, Kerry wins 264 EV (Gore states + neighboring state New 
Hampshire), Bush wins 265. But Kerry wins the popular vote in Colorado and 
the initiative pass. Kerry's legal team would be fighting to knock down the 
proportional system initiative, and Bush would be fighting to keep it so the 
decision would go to the House. Most likely, Kerry would win and walk away 
with 273 electoral votes. If not, we would be waiting for the results of the 
Congressional races. Keep in mind that the vote for President, if it goes to 
the House is not a direct vote, it is not a 200-235 type vote, it is a 25-25 
vote. Each state has only one vote. In addition, a winner must get at least 
26 state votes, a 25-14 vote doesn't count. This can be hard to do because 
some states have an equal number of Democrats and Republicans meaning the 
state doesn't cast a ballot because they cancel each other's votes out. This 
vote could take as many ballots as 300 ballots and several months. The Vice 
President would be determined by a popular vote of the Senate.

Also keep in mind that it would be the NEW SENATE and the NEW HOUSE voting, 
so we cannot calculate the vote now. Chances are, Bush would win an 
Electoral Tie.

I believe that if either candidate comes within 27 electoral votes and 2000 
votes in that state(s), it will be challenged by the other party.

Kerry can challenge outcomes already in Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and maybe 
Ohio.

Bush can challenge outcomes in Colorado and New Mexico.

Election night may not end until January this time around if Kerry doesn't 
win Ohio but does well elsewhere.

Now if that didn't put you to sleep. . . .

Donovan J Arnold







>From: "Tom Hansen" <thansen at moscow.com>
>To: <Tbertruss at aol.com>, <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>Subject: RE: [Vision2020] Make Your Vote Count
>Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 12:26:28 -0700
>
>On the other hand, we would be campaigning to re-elect President Gore if
>Florida had adopted proportional allocation of electoral votes prior to
>2000.
>
>
>
>As Gore stated at the DNC that he himself is evidence that any child can
>grow up in America and win the popular vote.  And his unforgettable claim,
>"You win some.  You lose some.  Then there is that seldom used third
>category."
>
>
>
>Tom Hansen
>
>
>
>We could learn a lot from crayons: some are sharp, some are pretty, some 
>are
>dull, some have weird names, and all are different colors....but they all
>exist very nicely in the same box.
>
>   _____
>
>From: vision2020-bounces at moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-bounces at moscow.com]
>On Behalf Of Tbertruss at aol.com
>Sent: Friday, October 15, 2004 10:29 AM
>To: vision2020 at moscow.com
>Subject: [Vision2020] Make Your Vote Count
>
>
>
>
>All:
>
>Some people say this movement might hurt Democrats if states like New York
>and California adopted proportional allocation of electoral votes.  Maybe.
>But living in Idaho it would be great to be able to send and elector or two
>for a different candidate than the Republican option, which is all we will
>get for now.
>
>http://www.makeyourvotecount.net/content.jsp?content_KEY=60
>
>Ted Moffett
>
>_____________________________________________________
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