[Vision2020] Conserve precious Oil

[Donovan Arnold]

Ms. Kraut states, "It (oil prices) is because of the mess in Florida and 
political unrest in Venezuela as well."

Don't tell Bush, he might invade them.

Donovan J Arnold


>From: "Pat Kraut" <pkraut at moscow.com>
>To: "vision2020" <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Conserve precious Oil
>Date: Sat, 2 Oct 2004 22:55:31 -0700
>
>It is because of the mess in Florida and political unrest in Venezuela as
>well.
>
>---- Original Message -----
>From: "B.C. Strand" <Bill at strand.bz>
>To: <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>Sent: Saturday, October 02, 2004 5:07 PM
>Subject: [Vision2020] Conserve precious Oil
>
>
> > The reason for the $50/barrel oil prices right now is not because of
> > limited crude oil supply or competition with third world countries.. A
> > large portion of the price is a “fear factor” that significant amounts
> > of crude from the Middle East MAY be interrupted. It has been estimated
> > that 40% of the present price ($20/barrel) is due to this.
> >
> > Over the past two years, the US has been increasing its strategic
> > reserves to record levels. And until Hurricane Ivan interrupted
> > shipments, active crude oil inventories were well within seasonal norms.
> > So in reality, despite decreasing domestic production of oil, the US has
> > had higher available crude oil (both active inventories and strategic
> > reserve) than normal.
> >
> > The price of gas has been driven by four factors:
> >
> > - Price of oil (driven by the "fear factor")
> > - Unexpected increase in US consumption starting in February (some
> > people point at a warmer than usual 2003-2004 winter, so people started
> > taking car trips/vacations earlier. Others point to an improvement in
> > the US economy).
> > - Limited refinery capacity – the present US refinery capacity is darn
> > near maxed out.
> > - New environmental regulations in California and New York that require
> > a specialized summer blend. This limits imports (they have to import
> > blending components rather than finished product). This puts more strain
> > on the domestic refineries.
> >
> > Gas inventories were at incredibly low levels this spring and summer.
> > The US refineries ran at record high production rates to get gas to the
> > market this year. They “caught up” in the late summer so we didn’t get
> > nailed with high Labor Day prices.
> >
> > The problem is, normally the refineries start switching over to heating
> > oil and propane production in mid summer and this has NOT happened. A
> > portion of the propane has been re-stocked through record levels of
> > propane imports. However, if it is a cold, hard winter in the east,
> > count on propane and heating oil prices to go through the roof.
> > If we are getting nailed by development in other countries (primary
> > China – same as they are affecting the steel industry) it is that they
> > are sucking up refined products (gas, propane, etc…).
> >
> > Bottom line is that it is not presently the supply of oil that is the
> > problem for gas prices. It is:
> >
> > - Fear of losing oil imports
> > - Insufficient refining capacity in the US
> > - Increased domestic consumption of gas
> >
> > If there is any single reason I consider voting Democrat this year is
> > because the war in Iraq is largely responsible for that "fear factor"
> > affecting oil prices. If there is a reason to vote Republican, it is
> > because there is a better chance they will give tax breaks to putting in
> > new refinery capacity. If there another reason to vote Democrat (etc,
> > etc, etc…). But regardless of which candidate gets elected, unemployment
> > tends to correlate with gas prices with a 8-12 month lag. January-May
> > 2005 could be really suckey for the job market.
> >
> > Having said that, it won’t be long until we will be truly fighting for
> > oil resources with China and other quickly developing nations. I’m
> > hoping that we see the cottonwood plantations in the Columbia basin be
> > used for bio-production of fuels (ala Germany in WWII). But this takes a
> > strategic plan for dealing with energy rather than the tactical plans we
> > have been dealing with. A strategic plan means monetary investment. I
> > don't see either presidential candidate addressing this. Maybe we will
> > see this in a later debate.
> >
> > Bill Strand
> >
> > _____________________________________________________
> >  List services made available by First Step Internet,
> >  serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
> >                http://www.fsr.net
> >           mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com
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> >
>
>
>_____________________________________________________
>  List services made available by First Step Internet,
>  serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>                http://www.fsr.net
>           mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com
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