[Vision2020] 17,000 average!

[Donovan Arnold]

Debbie,

You wrote, "I never said we should go AI, I was just talking about people 
that attend"

Thanks for clearing up your position, I think you did anyway. The point of 
whether we go AI or not is centered on the proposition that UI football 
attendance will average at least 17,000. I don't think anyone is against 
going AI because they don't want Vandal Football to be successful or make 
money for the University.

Your argument that you knew some people that come to UI Vandal games from 
abroad, seemed to me a supportive argument to the conclusion that we could 
get 17,000 people to come to UI football games. I see no other reason for 
making such a statement, so I think that is why I concluded that you 
supported the move to AI. I don't think anyone doubts that SOME people come 
from all over to see UI games. But enough people to come to UI games to 
reach at least 17,000 even when we have a zero win record seems shaky to me.

I very much doubt that figure (17,000) is realistic. I also think Mr. 
Hansen's original argument that he knows people that will come to the game, 
is not one that persuades me either, and useless in the argument that 17,000 
will attend based on how many people the people on V2020 know go to the 
games. Now, if I wanted a tea party of 20 or more, and two people knew at 
least 15 that would come, that would be a persuasive argument. But nobody 
knows 17,000 will show up. Nobody knows 17,000, it is impossible to know 
that many people. So in order to gauge that number, one has to look at other 
factors and forms of measurement to make that judgment. Those factors 
include population size, population characteristics, geology, weather, 
economics, and a few other factors. Being a native to Moscow, and having 
lived all over north Idaho, I say that those that derived at 17,000 
attendance on average are wrong. They are wrong because they misjudge 
weather, geology and population characteristics. That is my judgment and 
that is what I base my decision on to not support the move to AI on.

Take Care,

Donovan J Arnold

PS, I loved Shrek and Shrek II. Great movies, "We have a white bronco 
heading. . ."


>From: Debbie Gray <dgray at uidaho.edu>
>To: Donovan Arnold <donovanarnold at hotmail.com>
>CC: Vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>Subject: RE: [Vision2020] 17,000 average!
>Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 18:07:44 -0800 (PST)
>
>As Shrek would say 'Hold the Phone!'
>
>I never said we should go AI, I was just talking about people that attend.
>Didn't mention that I was confident 17,000 would travel to every game.
>Nope. But more people attend from out of town than it seems you identify.
>And if a few people on this list know a few people that travel, doesn't it
>translate into quite a few people in Moscow know quite a few people that
>do travel. It's not like Tom and I have the only 6 people that travel to a
>vandal game in our circle of friendship.
>
>I think we _should_ hop back down to a more manageable league. However,
>there are monetary gains to being in a 'bigger league' though we lose lots
>of games to irrelevant teams. And I am not saying I 'get' that. I am not a
>football economist by any means... I think sports, and esp football, is
>just too big of an emphasis in college. But that is where
>money/prestige/je ne sais whatever comes into play.
>
>
>But I just don't seem to have that "skill" to see things in stark black
>and white contrast as you seem to possess.
>
>Debbie
>
>On Thu, 11 Nov 2004, Donovan Arnold wrote:
>
> > Debbie,
> >
> > Like I say. All of you that think that going AI will be such a bang for 
>the
> > buck, ought to invest in it yourself if you are so confident that 17,000
> > paying fans will drive to every game. I for one don't think it will 
>happen
> > and don't think it is evidence that it will be successful because you 
>know a
> > family or two that comes up from Boise, or flies over from Honolulu. 
>This
> > sounds like someone saying, I asked ten people I know which candidate 
>they
> > liked best and 7 said candidate B so I extrapolated from this data that
> > candidate B will win with 70% of the vote.
> >
> > There is a big difference between a bus full of people and 17,000. I 
>also
> > know dozens of Alumni that don't go to UI games, including some that 
>even
> > played football. Gambling a huge amount of resources into football when 
>we
> > don't have enough money for classrooms and teachers seems like an 
>awfully
> > bad idea and smells more like a Hoover program than one of future
> > prosperity.
> >
> > Take Care,
> >
> > Donovan J Arnold
> >
>
>Debbie
>
>%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%
>   Debbie Gray      dgray at uidaho.edu
>   We must be willing to get rid of the life we've planned,
>   so as to have the life that is waiting for us." --Joseph Campbell
>%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%
>
>_____________________________________________________
>  List services made available by First Step Internet,
>  serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
>                http://www.fsr.net
>           mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com
>¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯