[Vision2020] Election Predictions

[Donovan Arnold]

Special Note:
I always make predictions on the winner of every election I know something 
about. I am correct about 95% of the time for the winner, on percentage of 
the vote, I have been correct about 90% of the time with a margin of error 
rate within +/- 5 percentage points. However, on this occasion I could be 
way off because of the potential for a huge party crossover and I am 
unknowing of how many Democrats and Independents will vote on the higher 
offices and what % of Democrats and Independents will be crossing over and 
contaminating the purity of the nomination process.

Prediction #1
Voter Turnout:

There are about 19,000 Registered Voters with the Latah County Courthouse. 
About 37% (6,000-8,000) of them will have voted by 8 PM Tuesday May, 25th.

Approximately 78% of the voters will be voting in the Republican primary. 
About 50% of the 78% voting in the Republican Primary will be Republicans, 
the remaining 28% will be Independents and Democrats.

This means that a Republican candidate will need about 2,800-3,000 votes to 
win the party's nomination.

On the other hand, a Democratic Candidate is going to need less than 800 
votes to win.

Latah County Results Only

Prediction #2

State Senate District 6

Schroeder vs. Vance

To me this is a no brainer, Schroeder will win hands down. Vance will not 
crack the 30's. Prediction: 62-36%- 2% Other or undecided +/- 4 percent.

Prediction #3

Vance, or a clone(person with same positions) will claim the only reason he 
lost was because Democrats voted in the Primary and will keep coming back 
again and again until only republicans vote in the Republican Primary and is 
soundly defeated by his own party members.

Prediction #4

Pike vs. Vaughan

This is tougher to call and will most likely be the closest contested race, 
this election is harder to predict because of the LOW turnout for the 
Democratic Primary, a handful of votes can effect the precentage by a 
considerable amount:

Pike will win because of higher name recognition, greater experience, and a 
more visible campaign. Vaughan will have a higher respectable turnout 
because of his handlers and warm and strong personality.

Prediction Pike, 60-40% with a +/- 7% margin of error.

Prediction #5

Pat Scott will get 55-80 write-ins, reserving a place on the ballot for a 
Democratic Nominee. However, because Schroeder wins the Primary no real 
opposition is given in the election.

I do admit that I have no clue who to vote for in the Library election. 
Don't know either one. Guess I will leave it blank.

Good luck, and please vote in YOUR party's Primary today. You have until 8 
PM. Elections will be held at the Kibbie Dome if you live outside of Moscow 
and at the Fairgrounds if you live within Moscow (there are few exceptions 
to this general rule).

Respectfully,

Donovan J Arnold

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