[Vision2020] Smart VP Picks--what do YOU think?
Tim Lohrmann
timlohr@yahoo.com
Thu, 4 Mar 2004 12:01:33 -0800 (PST)
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Visionaries,
With the Demo party nomination "thing" all but over, political junkies have to content themselves with speculation over who the smartest pick for the VP slot will be.
The article Wash. Post below my rambling discusses some of the possibilities, their strengths/weaknesses and etc.
Who do YOU think the Kerry should pick and why?
Edwards: He'd be a great campaigner, but most of the South is going to go for GW no matter who the VP pick is. He might possibly peel off NC and SC from the GOP, but that's def. not a sure thing and would be a risky strategy. It's not likely that he'd help much in Fla. and GA is trending so heavily towards the Repubs that it's doubtful that he'd help much there. Also, Edwards didn't show too much appeal in Ohio at all or in the other vital rust belt states at all and that's a big problem. And the fact that the two Johns don't particularly care for each other and got a little at each other's throats from time to time won't help either.
Wesely Clark: He doesn't seem to be much of a campaigner---maybe some day, but not yet. Also, he didn't demonstrate much appeal anywhere in the swing states with his late-starting campaign. And he had a habit of placing his foot firmly in his mouth regularly during the campaign. I don't think he's got enough going for him in any area to be a ticket asset.
Sen. Bob Graham: This would be a good pick if Kerry is really confident about Ohio, Missouri, and Penn. Graham could camp out in Fla. where he's reportedly still very popular and possibly swing it. But the knock is that Graham may be too elderly and that he has little appeal outside of Fla. I don't think Kerry is confident enough to make a one-state gamble by picking Graham. I think he needs someone that can help in many other states. The other Fla Sen.--Bill Nelson has been mentioned for similar reasons. He would be better than Graham because he's a better campaigner and his former astronaut status would likely capture the admiration of many.
Penn. Gov. Ed Rendell: This would make sense simply for carrying PA, but Gore carried Pa before, and Kerry probably has to think he'll have take it anyway on his own strengths. Probably not well-known enough outside PA to make him a good choice.
NM Gov. Bill Richardson: A natural choice to attract Hispanic voters, solidify NM, and poss. swing AZ an NV to the Demos. But again, Kerry has to think he'll carry huge majorities of Hispanic voters anyway. Richardson's other plus is his foreign policy experience and his reported rapport with the North Koreans. He'd be a good pick, but might be shaky in his appeal in the Rust Belt swing areas.
Former Co-President Hillary Clinton: Pretty risky even if she wanted the nomination. Who else would energize GW's base like her? She might help energize the Demo base, but Kerry has to find a way to do that on his own anyway if he's got a snowball's chance. JK will probably conclude that she'd carry too much baggage to be a serious choice and NY is going for him anyway.
NH Gov. Jean Shaheen: Carrying NH would have put Gore in, but Kerry's from Mass and should be able to take NH just because he's a fellow New Englander and bec. of his strong showing in NH during the primary.
The other's mentioned, all but one, are probably too unknown to be serious picks.
The ONE is Richard Gephardt. This is the guy I think would be the strongest pick. Why? Because he'd carry Missouri on his own. That's huge. MO is THE bellwether state in the US and very few have been elected without it. Kerry could turn Gephardt loose in Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and some other states and help solidify support there. In addition to MO, Gephardt would probably make the difference in carrying all important Ohio--which Bush carried in '00 and possibly in heavily unionized WV that GW also carried.
My opinion for what it's worth, whatcha think?
TL
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courtesy of washingtonpost.com
Now, the Kerry Team Looks for a No. 2
By Jim VandeHei and Dan Balz
Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) yesterday launched a search for a running mate that will consider everything from the historical importance of the South to the electoral necessity of tipping one of the nation's swing states away from President Bush, strategists inside and out of the campaign said.
Unlike many presidential nominees, Kerry does not exhibit major weaknesses such as foreign policy inexperience that must be compensated for with his vice presidential pick, the strategists said. A top Kerry adviser, who requested anonymity because the search has just begun, said that there is no "obvious gap to fill" but that emphasis will be placed on the possibility of naming a southerner, a prerequisite for Democratic victories over the past 60 years. The last time Democrats won the White House without a southerner on the ticket was 1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt of New York and Harry S. Truman of Missouri.
Kerry yesterday named former Fannie Mae chairman and Democratic insider James Johnson to lead the search. Kerry may outline his criteria as early as today.
A Democratic nominee has not picked someone to head his search committee this early in the process, underscoring Kerry's sense of urgency. The campaign had not intended to announce Johnson yesterday, but Kerry let the news slip, to the dismay of advisers.
Kerry is expected to cast a wide net for governors, women, minorities and swing-state political powerhouses. This will allow him to stroke key officials and constituencies and to ensure that no one who might help the campaign effort is overlooked. Among those who may be considered, according to speculation outside the Kerry campaign, are four former rivals for the nomination: Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.), Sens. John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.), and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark. Several swing-state governors, including Iowa's Tom Vilsack, Pennsylvania's Edward G. Rendell and New Mexico's Bill Richardson, could add non-Washington balance to the ticket.
Several women are being talked about, including former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, and former health and human services secretary Donna E. Shalala. Rep. John Lewis (Ga.), a civil rights champion, could be included.
Two names floated by influential Democrats outside the campaign: Robert E. Rubin and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.). "The one person who . . . I think has the potential to really be a powerful voice against Bush's most significant vulnerability [the economy] is Bob Rubin," said John D. Podesta, a former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton.
The Kerry adviser said a selection is unlikely before May, but some Democrats said it could come soon thereafter and would certainly be made before Democrats begin their July convention in Boston. "It's next to impossible to move next month if you wanted to," the adviser said. The chief advantage to an early pick is to make news during a slow period and to get a sidekick to campaign, raise money and hammer Bush. The chief impediment to a quick decision is the exhaustive vetting process.
Presidential candidates typically seek out a running mate they are comfortable having around, such as Clinton choosing Al Gore in 1992, but it is not unprecedented to pick a rival, even a bitter one, as John F. Kennedy did when he tapped Lyndon B. Johnson in 1960.
In 2000, Gore picked Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), a conservative Democrat renowned for his fight for morality in entertainment, to help assure voters that the era of Clinton scandals was behind him. Bush went with Richard B. Cheney, in part because he liked and respected him and because Cheney brought foreign policy heft.
Several Kerry supporters are pushing for a Democratic pit bull who can attack Bush while Kerry stays more above the fray, advisers said.
A few Kerry advisers said Gephardt could be the right choice because he is squeaky clean, loyal, tireless and as disciplined as any politician in the game. Gephardt has strong advocates, including leaders of organized labor and many House members, and one of his senior advisers, Steve Elmendorf, now serves as Kerry's deputy campaign manager. Gephardt advocates argue that Democrats must win the election in the Midwest and that the Missourian is a natural fit to make the case against Bush's economic policies in the industrial heartland.
Politics - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/?referrer=emailarticle
© 2004 The Washington Post Company
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<DIV>Visionaries,</DIV>
<DIV> With the Demo party nomination "thing" all but over, political junkies have to content themselves with speculation over who the smartest pick for the VP slot will be.</DIV>
<DIV> The article Wash. Post below my rambling discusses some of the possibilities, their strengths/weaknesses and etc.</DIV>
<DIV> Who do YOU think the Kerry should pick and why?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> <STRONG>Edwards</STRONG>: He'd be a great campaigner, but most of the South is going to go for GW no matter who the VP pick is. He might possibly peel off NC and SC from the GOP, but that's def. not a sure thing and would be a risky strategy. It's not likely that he'd help much in Fla. and GA is trending so heavily towards the Repubs that it's doubtful that he'd help much there. Also, Edwards didn't show too much appeal in Ohio at all or in the other vital rust belt states at all and that's a big problem. And the fact that the two Johns don't particularly care for each other and got a little at each other's throats from time to time won't help either.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>Wesely Clark</STRONG>: He doesn't seem to be much of a campaigner---maybe some day, but not yet. Also, he didn't demonstrate much appeal anywhere in the swing states with his late-starting campaign. And he had a habit of placing his foot firmly in his mouth regularly during the campaign. I don't think he's got enough going for him in any area to be a ticket asset.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>Sen. Bob Graham</STRONG>: This would be a good pick if Kerry is really confident about Ohio, Missouri, and Penn. Graham could camp out in Fla. where he's reportedly still very popular and possibly swing it. But the knock is that Graham may be too elderly and that he has little appeal outside of Fla. I don't think Kerry is confident enough to make a one-state gamble by picking Graham. I think he needs someone that can help in many other states. The other Fla <STRONG>Sen.--Bill Nelson</STRONG> has been mentioned for similar reasons. He would be better than Graham because he's a better campaigner and his former astronaut status would likely capture the admiration of many.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> <STRONG>Penn. Gov. Ed Rendell</STRONG>: This would make sense simply for carrying PA, but Gore carried Pa before, and Kerry probably has to think he'll have take it anyway on his own strengths. Probably not well-known enough outside PA to make him a good choice.</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG> </STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>NM Gov. Bill Richardson</STRONG>: A natural choice to attract Hispanic voters, solidify NM, and poss. swing AZ an NV to the Demos. But again, Kerry has to think he'll carry huge majorities of Hispanic voters anyway. Richardson's other plus is his foreign policy experience and his reported rapport with the North Koreans. He'd be a good pick, but might be shaky in his appeal in the Rust Belt swing areas.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG> Former Co-President Hillary Clinton</STRONG>: Pretty risky even if she wanted the nomination. Who else would energize GW's base like her? She might help energize the Demo base, but Kerry has to find a way to do that on his own anyway if he's got a snowball's chance. JK will probably conclude that she'd carry too much baggage to be a serious choice and NY is going for him anyway.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>NH Gov. Jean Shaheen</STRONG>: Carrying NH would have put Gore in, but Kerry's from Mass and should be able to take NH just because he's a fellow New Englander and bec. of his strong showing in NH during the primary. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The other's mentioned, <STRONG>all but one</STRONG>, are probably too unknown to be serious picks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The ONE is <STRONG>Richard Gephardt</STRONG>. This is the guy I think would be the strongest pick. Why? Because he'd carry Missouri on his own. That's huge. MO is THE bellwether state in the US and very few have been elected without it. Kerry could turn Gephardt loose in Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and some other states and help solidify support there. In addition to MO, Gephardt would probably make the difference in carrying all important Ohio--which Bush carried in '00 and possibly in heavily unionized WV that GW also carried.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My opinion for what it's worth, whatcha think?<BR> TL</DIV>
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<BLOCKQUOTE class=replbq style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid"><BR>courtesy of washingtonpost.com <BR><BR>Now, the Kerry Team Looks for a No. 2<BR><BR>By Jim VandeHei and Dan Balz<BR><BR>Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) yesterday launched a search for a running mate that will consider everything from the historical importance of the South to the electoral necessity of tipping one of the nation's swing states away from President Bush, strategists inside and out of the campaign said. <BR><BR>Unlike many presidential nominees, Kerry does not exhibit major weaknesses such as foreign policy inexperience that must be compensated for with his vice presidential pick, the strategists said. A top Kerry adviser, who requested anonymity because the search has just begun, said that there is no "obvious gap to fill" but that emphasis will be placed on the possibility of naming a southerner, a prerequisite for Democratic victories over the past 60 years. T!
he last
time Democrats won the White House without a southerner on the ticket was 1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt of New York and Harry S. Truman of Missouri. <BR><BR>Kerry yesterday named former Fannie Mae chairman and Democratic insider James Johnson to lead the search. Kerry may outline his criteria as early as today.<BR><BR>A Democratic nominee has not picked someone to head his search committee this early in the process, underscoring Kerry's sense of urgency. The campaign had not intended to announce Johnson yesterday, but Kerry let the news slip, to the dismay of advisers.<BR><BR>Kerry is expected to cast a wide net for governors, women, minorities and swing-state political powerhouses. This will allow him to stroke key officials and constituencies and to ensure that no one who might help the campaign effort is overlooked. Among those who may be considered, according to speculation outside the Kerry campaign, are four former rivals for the nomination: Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo!
.), Sens.
John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.), and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark. Several swing-state governors, including Iowa's Tom Vilsack, Pennsylvania's Edward G. Rendell and New Mexico's Bill Richardson, could add non-Washington balance to the ticket. <BR><BR>Several women are being talked about, including former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, and former health and human services secretary Donna E. Shalala. Rep. John Lewis (Ga.), a civil rights champion, could be included.<BR><BR>Two names floated by influential Democrats outside the campaign: Robert E. Rubin and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.). "The one person who . . . I think has the potential to really be a powerful voice against Bush's most significant vulnerability [the economy] is Bob Rubin," said John D. Podesta, a former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton.<BR><BR>The Kerry adviser said a selection is unlikely before May, but some D!
emocrats
said it could come soon thereafter and would certainly be made before Democrats begin their July convention in Boston. "It's next to impossible to move next month if you wanted to," the adviser said. The chief advantage to an early pick is to make news during a slow period and to get a sidekick to campaign, raise money and hammer Bush. The chief impediment to a quick decision is the exhaustive vetting process.<BR><BR>Presidential candidates typically seek out a running mate they are comfortable having around, such as Clinton choosing Al Gore in 1992, but it is not unprecedented to pick a rival, even a bitter one, as John F. Kennedy did when he tapped Lyndon B. Johnson in 1960.<BR><BR>In 2000, Gore picked Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), a conservative Democrat renowned for his fight for morality in entertainment, to help assure voters that the era of Clinton scandals was behind him. Bush went with Richard B. Cheney, in part because he liked and respected him and because Ch!
eney
brought foreign policy heft.<BR><BR>Several Kerry supporters are pushing for a Democratic pit bull who can attack Bush while Kerry stays more above the fray, advisers said. <BR><BR>A few Kerry advisers said Gephardt could be the right choice because he is squeaky clean, loyal, tireless and as disciplined as any politician in the game. Gephardt has strong advocates, including leaders of organized labor and many House members, and one of his senior advisers, Steve Elmendorf, now serves as Kerry's deputy campaign manager. Gephardt advocates argue that Democrats must win the election in the Midwest and that the Missourian is a natural fit to make the case against Bush's economic policies in the industrial heartland.<BR><BR><BR>Politics - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/?referrer=emailarticle<BR>© 2004 The Washington Post Company<BR></BLOCKQUOTE><p><hr SIZE=1>
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