[Vision2020] 06-03-04 NY Times OP-ED: Al Qaeda's Small Victories Add Up [Prewar Bush on Iragis: They will welcome us with open arms.]
Art Deco aka W. Fox
deco@moscow.com
Thu, 3 Jun 2004 07:26:58 -0700
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June 3, 2004
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
Al Qaeda's Small Victories Add Up
By ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN
ASHINGTON
Al Qaeda carried out its most successful attack since 9/11 last weekend,
and much of that success was a result of the American reaction. It was the
second time in a month that the terrorists struck at a soft target in Saudi
Arabia's petroleum industry. Twenty-two people - Saudis, an American and other
foreigners - lost their lives, and this is truly tragic. But in the grand scheme
of things, it was a small-scale attack, and should not have been treated as
more. The terrorists did not strike at the Saudi petroleum industry; not a
barrel of export capacity was lost.
The real target was the willingness of foreigners to stay in the country -
a direct blow at the economic underpinnings of Saudi Arabia and its ability to
attract the investment it needs for reform. Al Qaeda was simultaneously
attacking the Saudi regime and its efforts to modernize the country and rebuild
ties to the United States.
Unfortunately, the official American reaction was to panic - just as it
was in early May when five Western contractors were killed. The United States
did not call for new Saudi security efforts, offer aid in counterterrorism, or
try to fight back. Instead, the American Embassy in Riyadh decided to forget
about American investment and trade by calling for all Americans to leave the
country.
This comes at a time of record high oil prices, in a country whose oil
production is critical to the American and global economies and to every
American business, and in a region with 60 percent of the world's proven oil
reserves. All Persian Gulf countries have their own Islamist extremist cells. If
Saudi Arabia proves vulnerable, they are next. Is it any wonder oil prices
soared further this week - if the Americans are going to cut and run whenever
things get messy, why should oil traders have any faith in the continued supply?
It is all very well to talk about a global war on terrorism. To win it,
however, you have to fight it - on every front. We know that by the time of the
9/11 attacks, some 70,000 to 100,000 young men had been through some form of
Islamist training camp, and that Al Qaeda had affiliates or some kind of tie to
movements in more than 60 countries. In the years that have followed, the United
States defeated the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, but failed to capture
many of the leaders or secure the country, and has not completed the
nation-building that could bring true victory. The dispersal of terrorists has
destabilized western Pakistan, and the resulting political struggle has
strengthened Islamists in the rest of the country and created a new regional
threat.
Yet instead of wrapping up that fight, Washington invaded Iraq. While
getting rid of Saddam Hussein was wonderful for the Iraqi people, there is still
no evidence that Iraq was ever a center of terrorism or had strong ties to
Islamist extremists. As in Afghanistan, we failed to secure the country after
our military success and have been far to slow to create a meaningful plan for
nation-building. There is daily, violent evidence that the American invasion has
bred a mix of Iraqi Islamists and foreign volunteers that is a growing threat.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies in London has estimates
that Al Qaeda and its affiliates now have a strength of 18,000 men, many joining
the movement as a result of the Afghan and Iraq conflicts. Some American
intelligence experts on Iraq feel that the number of insurgents may still be
growing faster than Coalition Provision Authority's military operations can
reduce them.
What we need now is pragmatism and not ideology. It seems that the
administration's neoconservatives have given up their dream of a broader Middle
East initiative, which is a welcome sign of maturity. But this doesn't mean it
is time to go on the defensive.
We must do everything we can to help the region's more moderate and
friendly regimes - the Saudis and others - defeat terrorism and improve the
protection of foreign workers and oil facilities. Equally important is stepping
up aid and antiterrorism assistance to Pakistan. Yes, these fights have a
military dimension - but the primary struggle is political, ideological and
economic. We can't win it by force or on the cheap. Victory will come only
through strengthening local allies and reformers, not by trying to impose our
own political values.
Anthony H. Cordesman is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies.
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<H5>June 3, 2004</H5><NYT_KICKER><FONT color=3D#666666 =
size=3D-1><STRONG>OP-ED=20
CONTRIBUTOR</STRONG></FONT> </NYT_KICKER><NYT_HEADLINE =
version=3D"1.0"=20
type=3D" ">
<H2>Al Qaeda's Small Victories Add =
Up</H2></NYT_HEADLINE><NYT_BYLINE=20
version=3D"1.0" type=3D" "><FONT size=3D-1><STRONG>By ANTHONY H.=20
CORDESMAN</STRONG></FONT><BR></NYT_BYLINE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 align=3Dright border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><NYT_TEXT>
<P><IMG height=3D33 alt=3DW=20
src=3D"http://graphics7.nytimes.com/images/dropcap/w.gif" =
width=3D46=20
align=3Dleft border=3D0>ASHINGTON</P>
<P>Al Qaeda carried out its most successful attack since 9/11 last =
weekend, and much of that success was a result of the American =
reaction.=20
It was the second time in a month that the terrorists struck at a =
soft=20
target in Saudi Arabia's petroleum industry. Twenty-two people =97 =
Saudis,=20
an American and other foreigners =97 lost their lives, and this is =
truly=20
tragic. But in the grand scheme of things, it was a small-scale =
attack,=20
and should not have been treated as more. The terrorists did not =
strike at=20
the Saudi petroleum industry; not a barrel of export capacity was=20
lost.</P>
<P>The real target was the willingness of foreigners to stay in =
the=20
country =97 a direct blow at the economic underpinnings of Saudi =
Arabia and=20
its ability to attract the investment it needs for reform. Al =
Qaeda was=20
simultaneously attacking the Saudi regime and its efforts to =
modernize the=20
country and rebuild ties to the United States.</P>
<P>Unfortunately, the official American reaction was to panic =97 =
just as it=20
was in early May when five Western contractors were killed. The =
United=20
States did not call for new Saudi security efforts, offer aid in=20
counterterrorism, or try to fight back. Instead, the American =
Embassy in=20
Riyadh decided to forget about American investment and trade by =
calling=20
for all Americans to leave the country. </P>
<P>This comes at a time of record high oil prices, in a country =
whose oil=20
production is critical to the American and global economies and to =
every=20
American business, and in a region with 60 percent of the world's =
proven=20
oil reserves. All Persian Gulf countries have their own Islamist =
extremist=20
cells. If Saudi Arabia proves vulnerable, they are next. Is it any =
wonder=20
oil prices soared further this week =97 if the Americans are going =
to cut=20
and run whenever things get messy, why should oil traders have any =
faith=20
in the continued supply?</P>
<P>It is all very well to talk about a global war on terrorism. To =
win it,=20
however, you have to fight it =97 on every front. We know that by =
the time=20
of the 9/11 attacks, some 70,000 to 100,000 young men had been =
through=20
some form of Islamist training camp, and that Al Qaeda had =
affiliates or=20
some kind of tie to movements in more than 60 countries. In the =
years that=20
have followed, the United States defeated the Taliban and Al Qaeda =
in=20
Afghanistan, but failed to capture many of the leaders or secure =
the=20
country, and has not completed the nation-building that could =
bring true=20
victory. The dispersal of terrorists has destabilized western =
Pakistan,=20
and the resulting political struggle has strengthened Islamists in =
the=20
rest of the country and created a new regional threat.</P>
<P>Yet instead of wrapping up that fight, Washington invaded Iraq. =
While=20
getting rid of Saddam Hussein was wonderful for the Iraqi people, =
there is=20
still no evidence that Iraq was ever a center of terrorism or had =
strong=20
ties to Islamist extremists. As in Afghanistan, we failed to =
secure the=20
country after our military success and have been far to slow to =
create a=20
meaningful plan for nation-building. There is daily, violent =
evidence that=20
the American invasion has bred a mix of Iraqi Islamists and =
foreign=20
volunteers that is a growing threat. </P>
<P>The International Institute of Strategic Studies in London has=20
estimates that Al Qaeda and its affiliates now have a strength of =
18,000=20
men, many joining the movement as a result of the Afghan and Iraq=20
conflicts. Some American intelligence experts on Iraq feel that =
the number=20
of insurgents may still be growing faster than Coalition Provision =
Authority's military operations can reduce them. </P>
<P>What we need now is pragmatism and not ideology. It seems that =
the=20
administration's neoconservatives have given up their dream of a =
broader=20
Middle East initiative, which is a welcome sign of maturity. But =
this=20
doesn't mean it is time to go on the defensive. </P>
<P>We must do everything we can to help the region's more moderate =
and=20
friendly regimes =97 the Saudis and others =97 defeat terrorism =
and improve=20
the protection of foreign workers and oil facilities. Equally =
important is=20
stepping up aid and antiterrorism assistance to Pakistan. Yes, =
these=20
fights have a military dimension =97 but the primary struggle is =
political,=20
ideological and economic. We can't win it by force or on the =
cheap.=20
Victory will come only through strengthening local allies and =
reformers,=20
not by trying to impose our own political values.</P><!--author id =
start -->
<P></P>
<P><EM>Anthony H. Cordesman is a senior fellow at the Center for =
Strategic=20
and International Studies.</EM></P></NYT_TEXT><BR>
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