[Vision2020] Polls

[Joan Opyr]

>All:
>
>In the Gore v Bush 2000 election, I monitored 5-6 polls in the week before
>the election.  None of them gave Gore a significant lead.  Most had Gore 
>behind
>Bush by significant margins.  We know Gore beat Bush by about half a
>percentage point in the overall popular vote.  Why did major polls before 
>the election
>show Bush with a significant lead, yet none showed Gore with a significant
>lead?  Is it possible polls are manipulated to create a "winners side" 
>psychology
>to stimulate momentum behind one candidate to encourage voters to be on the
>winning rather than the losing side?  After all, Americans are obsessed 
>with
>winning and being number one, are they not?
>
>Ted

I monitored several polls as well, and the most accurate in my experience 
was John Zogby's.  He had Gore's expected share of the popular vote much 
higher than the other polls I followed.  (If anyone is interested, Zogby's 
current polls can be accessed at www.zogby.com.  By his reckoning, Bush 
didn't get much of a bump from the capture of Saddam Hussein.  His approval 
rating is now hovering at 53%, and more people still say they'd rather elect 
"someone new" than re-elect Bush.  We'll see, of course, how it shakes out 
after the Democratic primaries.)

I haven't, to answer Tim Lohrman's question, forgetton H. Ross Perot in 
1992.  Neither have I forgotten Ralph Nader in 2000.  While some might say 
it's simplistic to believe that Gore would have won without Nader, Gore 
would have won without Nader.  Were 90,000 Green voters in Florida really 
hoping to put George Bush in the White House?  Robitussin might taste nasty, 
but most of us know the difference between cough syrup and Drano.

My point in forwarding the Clinton article was this: it's important to keep 
polls in perspective.  As Ted says, there's always the danger of creating a 
self-fulfilling prophecy.  The cover of Newsweek is sporting the headline 
"Doubts About Dean," and Joe Lieberman and John Kerry are in serious danger 
of becoming their own party's spoilers.  There won't be any need for Karl 
Rove to put down his plate of hot-wings and get up off his ample butt if the 
Democrats' also-rans have already done his job for him.

Joan Opyr/Auntie Establishment

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